That is not true.

Our forecast for Blackpool South:

 

LAB: 50% (+12)

CON: 30% (-20)

REF: 14% (+8)

GRN: 5% (+3)

LDEM: 3% (-)

 

Any interesting forecast here by You Gov for Blackpool South with all the parties polling what the opinion polls show except the tories are on 30%!

That is not true.

 

It’s well known to have been true in the 1980s and 90s albeit never proven but like voter fraud why would it be in the interests to prove!

Our forecast for Blackpool South:

 

LAB: 50% (+12)

CON: 30% (-20)

REF: 14% (+8)

GRN: 5% (+3)

LDEM: 3% (-)

 

Any interesting forecast here by You Gov for Blackpool South with all the parties polling what the opinion polls show except the tories are on 30%!

What was the polling like for that area before toneet?

 

It’s well known to have been true in the 1980s and 90s albeit never proven but like voter fraud why would it be in the interests to prove!

 

It's just not the case at all. Urban legend.

What was the polling like for that area before toneet?

 

See the +\- beside I assume they indicate!

I mean the prediction polling

Hetton (Sunderland) council election result:

 

LAB: 46.6% (+1.9)

IND: 29.2% (+9.5)

REF: 10.9% (+10.9)

CON: 5.9% (-13.5)

GRN: 5.0% (+2.1)

LDEM: 2.5% (+0.3)

 

Labour HOLD.

 

First council declared obv had to be Sunderland and skewed by those pesky Indepndents. But Reform polling at 11% must be worrying for the tories!

Burbage (Leicestershire) council election result:

 

LDEM: 51.3% (+9.6)

CON: 30.2% (-18.2)

LAB: 13.8% (+4.6)

GRN: 4.7% (+4.7)

 

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

 

Here’s a seat the reform party doesn’t stand in, interesting the difference in Tory vote but the LDs gain this!

Byker (Newcastle Upon Tyne) council election result:

 

GRN: 56.8% (+42.2)

LAB: 35.6% (-22.3)

CON: 5.1% (-17.1)

LDEM: 2.5% (-2.8)

 

Green GAIN from Labour

 

 

 

Just WOW!

Labour symbolically win Hartlepool from NOC. Their loss of the parliamentary sest to the Conservatives when they were extremely popular under Johnson a couple years back was the darkest hours for Labour before their recovery.

 

Great swings too for Labour in North East Lincolnshire

Edited May 3, 20241 yr by Smint

Our forecast for Blackpool South:

 

LAB: 50% (+12)

CON: 30% (-20)

REF: 14% (+8)

GRN: 5% (+3)

LDEM: 3% (-)

 

Any interesting forecast here by You Gov for Blackpool South with all the parties polling what the opinion polls show except the tories are on 30%!

 

Incorrect data, Tories actually polled just 17.5%.. not even 1% ahead of Reform. Not that you can draw any sig conclusions from a by-election but the swing is bigger than predicted by the MRP poll.

 

@1786243090954506536

That's a terrible vote for Tories in Blackpool South and great for Labour. The council elections aren't that great for Labour, although some good wins like Thurrock and Rushmoor. Lots of Green and Independent wins, showing lack of enthusiasm for Starmer.

 

But so far does indicate in a GE that they will win. Loads more results to go though.

Incorrect data, Tories actually polled just 17.5%.. not even 1% ahead of Reform. Not that you can draw any sig conclusions from a by-election but the swing is bigger than predicted by the MRP poll.

 

@1786243090954506536

 

Yeh the data i posted was a forecast so as you say its much worse for the tories especially with the Reform votes in Northern seats. Although in Blackpool South the turnout was only 32.5%.

 

Im desperate for the GE all nighter now, could be a great watch!

Edited May 3, 20241 yr by Steve201

Im desperate for the GE all nighter now, could be a great watch!

 

Same!! It can't come soon enough!

Fine. Obviously no enthusiasm for wstablishmwnt plant Starmer, but we can tell a scab when we see one. Corbyn would have done better.

Jamie Driscoll did lose in the end and by a significant margin too. London Mayoral loads of rumours going around that Hall has upset Khan. At first I thought it was some Trumpian cast aspersion on the votes nonsense by the right wing but even Khan's team is saying it's going to be closed. Think it's a bit much waiting till Saturday to count the vote, that allows these rumours to take part - FWIW I think Khan has won comfortably but being cautious/downplaying expectations. Definitely would be a tale of Inner vs Outer London too.

Oh :(

Jamie Driscoll did lose in the end and by a significant margin too. London Mayoral loads of rumours going around that Hall has upset Khan. At first I thought it was some Trumpian cast aspersion on the votes nonsense by the right wing but even Khan's team is saying it's going to be closed. Think it's a bit much waiting till Saturday to count the vote, that allows these rumours to take part - FWIW I think Khan has won comfortably but being cautious/downplaying expectations. Definitely would be a tale of Inner vs Outer London too.

 

I imagine it will be close because the anti-Khan vote was a lot stronger in feeling than the anti Susan hall(nobody knows her) or pro-Khan vote. Plus the last one polls were way off and the Tory guy came a lot closer than polled. In London especially I imagine there is a quiet Tory type of vote. It would be a real miracle if he lost though.

 

To something said earlier “ Khan’s lead in the mayoral race is not built on high levels of satisfaction with his previous performance in the role. Our February 2024 poll showed that only 27% of Londoners say they are “very” or “somewhat” satisfied with the way he has performed since becoming Mayor of London. Meanwhile, 45% claim they are “somewhat” or “very” dissatisfied. Khan’s rather lacklustre approval ratings make his lead appear rather more shallow.”

 

Labour is the default in London and London has been steadily becoming stronger for Labour in the last 10 years. So I don't think somebody hardly anyone wants should just get a free lifetime pass as London mayor because he's Labour. Now he has no chance to be PM I'm pretty sure Sadiq would be content to stay London mayor for as long as he can. A decade or so should be the maximum unless you're extremely popular which he isn't.

Also, if some Muslim voters, or any left wing people angry at the Middle East situation, stayed home and decided not to vote Labour, itwill have damaged his numbers.