I think had Nigel Farage stood in somewhere like Clacton they may have picked up a seat - but that's not happening now.

 

I should have kept my mouth shut, sorry everyone. 😔

 

Although latest poll from Redfield and Wilton could place the Tories on just 40 seats...

 

@1798745286355177662

^ oh wow that tory result feels far too good to be true but I'll take it!

Wonder if Laura K will make big lonf reports about Tory decimation and talk to them about postage votes pre election day. Somehow I doubt it.

I'm going to plump for Reform winning some seats through 3/4 way splits where the high 20s is enough to be first past the post.

 

Labour - 500

Lib Dems - 60

Conservatives - 40

SNP - 20

Reform - 10

Plaid - 2

NI - 18

Now I understand this stuff a bit more this is my new prediction

 

Plaid - 3

Lib Dems - 52

Reform - 5

SNP - 28

Conservatives - 95

Labour - 446

Green - 2

Edited June 27, 20241 yr by Liam sota

Final Prediction - lets see how this goes.

 

Labour - 450

Conservatives - 100

Liberal Democrats - 54

SNP - 20

Plaid Cymru - 4

Green - 2

Reform - 1

Speaker - 1

N.I - 18

Final prediction:

 

Labour - 426

Conservatives - 147

Lib Dems - 55

SNP - 9

Reform - 4

Green - 4

Others - 7

Labour: 500

Cons: 87

Lib Dems: 72

Reform: 15

Green: 5

SNP: 15

Others

My current prediction that I put into YAPMS about a month or so, online tool for visualising political maps - bit fiddly for doing the whole 600 seat thing as the website was designed with US state predictions where you 'only' have to click 50 things to make your prediction.

 

Obviously I went a little general with some of the areas of the country I'm less familiar with and it's based a little on vibes with the minor parties so I'm not predicting specific seat results from the map in the above link, more filling in areas with parties I expect to get seats in around that area, but it's a decent estimation for the start of the campaign, I'll rejig it for a full thing later on once I get more of an idea and poke around some constitutencies in detail.

 

Labour 430

Conservatives 115

Lib Dems 56

SNP 19

Reform 5

Green 2

Plaid 4

SF 8

DUP 7

Alliance 2

SDLP 1

 

Possibly a little high on LDs and Reform but I am expecting even nominally safe seats for the Conservatives to become fights with their nearest challengers which could lead to a few unexpected victories here and there.

 

 

Gonna update this with a final prediction of:

 

Labour 451

Conservatives 77

Lib Dems 77

SNP 17

Green 3

Reform 2

Plaid 4

SF 8

DUP 5

Alliance 2

SDLP 2

UUP 1

Speaker 1

Jeremy Corbyn 1 (had to!)

 

Edged back on Reform seats and up on Greens, went a bit more bullish with LDs and Labour with my prediction that lots of Conservative voters just won't turn out in places to get them over the line. That it ended up on the banter number of both LDs and Cons on the same seats is a happy coincidence.

 

argue over my constituency choices here: https://yapms.com/app?m=5tf4e7tonlo3j0o - I balanced this against previous seat data, what Electoral Calculus says for some seats and consulted ElectionMaps' Nowcast (and in parts of the country I'm less familiar with, just followed their choice).

I wanna update back to my originsl Tory number and say Tories on 78

 

Lab: 440 -500

Lib Dems: 71

Tories: 78

Reform: 15

SNP: 15

Green: 3-5

 

Just my feeling. I think Corbyn will miss our unfortunately, as will the culture Labour sec :(

 

 

Final prediction:

 

Labour - 426

Conservatives - 147

Lib Dems - 55

SNP - 9

Reform - 4

Green - 4

Others - 7

 

👀you were the closest I think

Seen that earlier great prediction Curtice 🤣

👀you were the closest I think

 

Shocked I got SNP, Green and Reform bang on. :o Underestimated LD quite a bit though.

Should have stuck with my first prediction, that was bang on with Reform actually.

I did well enough with the tories/Labour but not with the Lib Dem surge and snp collapse!