Brett-Butler

We could have the first by-election of the current parliament soon as Mike Amebury (who has now had the Labour whip removed) has been charged with assault. If found guilty, he will have to resign if he's sentenced to more than a year, or face a recall election if he receives a shorter custodial sentence. He won the constituency in July with a majority of 15k, so unless the 2nd place Reform UK perform a surprise upset, then it'll more than likely be a Labour hold.

I may as well put all my thoughts on this (ill informed and slightly less ill-informed) into one big infodump. Firstly, regardless of who won, I was hoping that the result would be emphatic, with the winner clearing both the Electoral College & the popular vote with sizeable margins, which is what will happen once all the votes are counted, so there's that. My predictions for this election (which I didn't commit to paper this time) were similar to back in 2016 - up until a few weeks ago I thought Trump would win, but then shifted to Kamala Harris with a few weeks to go after seeing the early votes in swing states going in her favour. Once again, never ask me to predict anything political, as I inevitably get it wrong. I do not see election turning out the way because Trump won. The election turned out the way it did because the Democrats lost. When Joe Biden ran in 2020, it should have been clear from the outset that he would run for only one term, so that a proper primary process could be undertaken to find a popular successor within the party. When that didn't happen, the Democrats' chance of winning became slim given Biden's health (I refuse to believe that the Democrats didn't know there were issues with his health until his debate with Trump, I'm sure in the next few years there will be interesting insider books that come out setting out what the Biden White House was like from the inside, which will be rather juicy). Once he finally dropped out, they should have arranged an expediated emergency primary to get a candidate with popular approval within the party. Instead, they went with the vice president Kamala Harris, who proved so unpopular when she ran in 2020 that she withdrew early in the process, and would not likely have won the nomination had she taken part in a full primary. I have some sympathy for her given that she was only given a few months to prepare for running for president instead of a full year lead-in, but in hindsight she was never going to win on a "I'm not Donald Trump", even with the backing of Dick Cheney and Richard Spencer. As to the question of "she lost because she was black & a woman", lets not forget that Barack Obama did win two elections, so colour is not a barrier to the highest office. I've said before that when America does elect a woman as president, I believe that she will be a Republican rather than a Democrat, so the next Republican primary will be interesting. As for those saying that the Democrats lost because [insert something that confirms my priors], I will say that the Democratic campaign that ran was more leftward than the average voter on social issues, and more rightward than the average American on economic issues. It's interesting to note that in ballot initiatives "conservative" deep red states Missouri & Alaska passed votes to increase the minimum wage, whilst bluer than a blue whale California voted 70% in favour of tougher punishments for theft & drug related crime. It's almost as if being economically left wing whilst being more (but not totally) socially conservative is a vote winner.* I've seen it reported that one of the few demographics where the Democrats improved between now and 2020 was with voters who earn more than $100,000 per year. I understand the irony of the working classes voting for the party of billionaire Donald Trump and the richest man in the world Elon Musk, but the Democrats losing its working class support underpins the rightward shift of the working classes. It was once believed that demographics were destiny, and that the less white the US becomes, the less likely the Republicans would ever win again. Given nearly all demographics shifted to Trump (with the majority of Latinos voting for him, even with the "garbage" comments!), I think we can shatter that myth once and for all. This election makes the UK somewhat an outlier in the Western world, with it being one of the few countries that hasn't shifted rightward in its recent elections (although that may have something to do with our jolly electoral system of first past the post, see also France). Hopefully Labour can learn a few lessons from it before 2029 to ensure that they don't become a single term government as well. I also don't envy them having to cosy up to Trump now especially given what they've said about him over the years (especially David Lammy, although he has said that he does have a good relationship with VP elect JD Vance, which I can somewhat understand given his Blue Labour leanings). Being in opposition really is politics on easy mode, but once you're in power everything changes. As for Trump, there are two things that concern me more than anything else with him in a 2nd term. The first is on Ukraine, he has said that he wants the war with Russia to end as soon as possible. Now I'm all for peace and and end to war, but if a peace deal is struck early on in his term, then such a deal would see Ukraine waving goodbye to Crimea for good, and likely have to give up some of the mainland territory in Donbas that Putin has taken since 2022. And I don't trust Putin not to salami slice Europe even if a deal is brokered (Moldova could be next). I'm also pretty concerned if Robert Kennedy Jr is put in charge of health in any future Trump administration, his anti-vaccination stance could literally kill millions of children if he is allowed to enact even a fraction of it. Finally, given how volatile politics are at the moment, I suspect that the Democrats will win back the White House in 2028. I'm not even going to attempt to predict who with just yet. Thar be my two pence worth, whether you agree or not. *Yes, I know I'm a hypocrite.

I'm guessing that the song that I gave 12 points to will end up winning by a landslide. If I can get at least mid-table I'll be jolly satisfied.

Not the only European country that’s fired the starting gun for an election this week either. On Friday the Republic of Ireland is expected to announce the date of their next General Election, which is expected to be 29th November. May create a new thread for that one when it is confirmed.

I don’t think I’ve entered a Nuggets in years now, but I think I may have something up my sleeve.

They do seem to have a mini-resurgence every now again, either with this song or “Into Dust”, which made the UK charts in 2009 and 2011 after featuring in two separate ad campaigns. They’re one of those bands that a lot of people know without realising giving how often their music gets used in TV & film. Unfortunately their co-founded died in 2020 so doubt they’ll tour again.

Is there any particular reason why the glorious “Fade Into You” by Mazzy Star is climbing the Spotify charts? Is it TikTok?

I’m in two minds - “Alone” is not one of their more pop-orientated songs (probably most akin to something from “Bloodflowers”), and the lead single from 4:13 Dream only made #48 in 2008 despite being more accessible. Then again, their reputation has grown exponentially since then, and streaming might be on their side (in 2008 their single sales were almost all physical), so could go either way. I didn’t see Linkin Park returning with a top 5 hit, so could end up with a similar surprise.

The new single “Alone” is out on Friday. It premiers on Thursday on Mary Anne Hobbs’ 6music show.

SDLP are Labour's sister party in Northern Ireland, in the same way that the UUP are for the Tories, Alliance are for the Lib Dems, and Reform for the TUV, so I presume that's what he meant by that.

Most of the Independent MPs elected took seats from Labour, all pro-Gaza MPs, and largely in areas with large Muslim populations. The other Independent elected was in North Down, which has an independent again following Lady Hernon from 2010-2019.

The Tories have gained their first (and perhaps only) seat, winning Leicester East. Two of the constituencies ex-MPs were running as independents (Claudia Webbe & Keith Vaz), which likely helped.

Apropos of nothing, but all returning officers should wear rather fancy hats when giving their declarations. Some great hat action this evening.

Reform could make a gain in Northern Ireland - Jim Alistair is neck and neck with Ian Paisley Jr in North Antrim, his TUV party is on a joint ticket with Reform, although awkwardly Farage personally endorsed Paisley.

Galloway lost his seat.

Reform will have at least 1 seat with Lee Anderson holding his seat. If he has more than one fellow Reform-ee by the end of the night it'll be a surprise.

Lib Dems win back Eastleigh, Chris Hulne's old seat.

Early polling suggesting that Robin Swann from the UUP could take a seat from the DUP in South Antrim. SDLP also think they may take South Down, but personally find that doubtful.

First Tory scalp there, Heidi Alexander is back in parliament.

Also defeated - any chance of PR being brought in ahead of the next General Election.

Labour's forecast vote up 18% in Scotland, although interestingly seems to suggest their vote is down 2% in London. Don't think they'll lose seats in London though.

D'oh. Me of all people should have known that!

A similar landslide to 1997 then, albeit with the Tories on less than that year. 13 for Reform does seem high though, I think that could fall during the night. 19 Others though, I wonder who those are?

Back live. Thanks!

Not sure if I’ll stay through the night like previous elections, but will catch the exit poll and some of the initial results. Still think the Tory seat number will be higher than the opinion poll figures, and the pro-Gaza indies will poll better than expected, but a healthy Labour majority is a definite certainty.