Brett-Butler

Think I’m having the same issue. Not getting the reset emails to log back in on my laptop. And on such a fun night too.

Voted this morning. As I was leaving someone at my polling station took a seizure so they had to temporarily close it whilst she got medical attention. Hopefully she was okay.

Whichever party rush-releases "we will make it much harder to bet on political outcomes" into their manifesto is going to get the landslide.

In "there was no way the other parties weren't at it too" news, Labour have now suspending one of its parliamentary candidates, Kevin Craig of Central Suffolk & North Ipswich, after he bet on himself losing the seat. This was the seat where the sitting Tory MP defected to Labour. I doubt the bookies will honour this bet now. I had expected there was likely to more stories coming out for prospective candidates, and I expect more to come out over the next few weeks, across all parties.

That poll should be treated with all the salt in the Dead Sea. Commissioned for GB News.

I can understand why both Labour and the Tories are in favour of keeping the Catholic Tax, for different ideological reason for each.i can also see why Reform are in favour of scrapping it, from their own ideological perspective.

Added a second poll for the NI contingent.

When they’ve lost The Telegraph, you know they’re doomed - @1800939951309156548

Funny anecdote about how technology has changed canvassing, and how some canvassers are trying to get around it - @1800446764602003786

Back where it belongs. :D

In other aftershocks of these elections, the Belgian Prime Minister has resigned.

:( They are also standing on a joint ticket in Northern Ireland with the TUV, and their election posters have both parties, although due to issues with registration only TUV will be on the ballot. I also believe there’s a few seats where they have a joint ticket with the SDP.

Some people have all the fun. :lol: All the candidates in my constituency are already existing representatives in one form or other. As well as the sitting MP, two are MLA’s at Stormont, one is my local councillor, one is a councillor at a different council, and one is an Irish Senator.

The nominations close tomorrow at 4pm, so if there is a deal to be reached between Sunak and Farage he's cutting it fine.

Slight point of order - in the Republic of Ireland, the D'Hondt system isn't used for elections to the European parliament. Instead it is the Single Transferable Vote, the more democratic, fairer and sexier form of PR. I'd predicted at the start of the year that there would be a rightward shift in the European elections this year, and would start the process of a reversal of how the left/right views the EU within the UK (with the left becoming more Eurosceptic and the right being more inclined towards it). Whilst the former is likely to happen, the latter might take a few more years to unravel. In Ireland, it is likely that the Greens will lose seats, as well as two far-left pro-Russia independents (Mick Wallace & Claire Daly), with potential gains for Sinn Fein and Independent Ireland, a newly formed populist party.

I will quote what I said five years ago the last time that "milkshaking" became a thing, as it still holds up (unfortunately even more so now, given that there's been a murder of another MP during the last parliament sitting). Note that this occured a few weeks before Farage's last "milkshaking" in the run up to the European Elections in 2019 which is why I didn't mention him. And what happened then? The Brexit Party went from nowhere to winning the European Elections. Also, the same year someone lobbed an egg at Jeremy Corbyn. He got 28 days in jail. And rightly so.

Two members defected from the Conservatives in 2014 and held their seats for UKIP in by-elections. In the 2015 General Election one of them (Douglas Carswell) held his seat. He later resigned from UKIP following the Brexit vote and stood down as an MP ahead of the 2017 election.

Prior to this announcement, the Tories were predicted to win with c32%, with Labour and Reform neck and neck on c24%, so any Farage boost likely wouldn’t hit Labour, unless it rallies the local Labourites. Interestingly Clacton is the only constituency UKIP ever won in a General Election, which is likely why Farage is trying his luck there.

Let’s have some fun with a quick election quiz! Based upon a quick glance of this poster, which party do you think this MP is running for? @1796819961194627547. If you answered something other than the obvious, then congratulations, you’ve read the small print. Pretty sure this could be in breach of electoral law.

In other news, Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey obviously forgot to heed the advice not to get involved in any photo-op that could lead to embarrassment - RkWbeC4RVXI

Which seats in the rest of Great Britain do you expect the DUP to pick up? (There’s only 18 seats in Northern Ireland) :P

Where do you think the SDLP will pick up a seat? Given their decline they’re going to struggle to even hold on to even one of their current seats.

I just wish that there was a Yes Prime Minister clip regarding whether to bring back National Service which could be shared at this point. Unfortunately I don’t think such a clip exists…

Conservatives 249 Labour 328 Scottish National Party 9 Liberal Democrat 41 NI 18 - SF 7 SDLP 1 Alliance 1 DUP 8 IND/UUP 1 Plaid 3 Reform 0 Green 0 IND/Others - 2 (1 being Corbyn) In relation to NI, I predict that Sinn Fein will gain Foyle from SDLP but lose North Belfast to the DUP. Alliance will lose North Down to Alex Easton if he stands, or UUP if he doesn’t. Alliance will gain Lagan Valley. Sinn Fein will just about hang on to Fermanagh South Tyrone, although will be one of the first by-elections of the new parliament if Michelle Gildernew is elected as an MEP in the South (although legally she can be both, which is an odd quirk).

I will go with the same prediction for this General Election that I made at the start of the year - that Labour will win the most seats & a working majority, but only just, meaning that they will rely on support from Lib Dems to get certain policies over the line whilst dealing with an "awkward squad" of around 10 MPs that dig their heels in at every turn. That's even with every opinion poll giving Labour a 20 point lead for the past 18 months - six weeks is a long time and things can change massively (there's no way that Reform will be anywhere near 5% in the polls come July), and in terms of where things stand I would only give credence to them in the week leading up to the election. Of course I've been wrong in every Generation Election prediction I've made on here since 2015, so I'll probably be wrong again.