Maestro

When else has Billie done uncredited features? I can’t think of any

Only for songs that went to ACR in December.

Not how it works. They only reset stuff that went to ACR in December, which Die with a Smile didn’t, therefore it won’t get reset.

How have you come to conclusion it’s gonna get reset. Compared to Friday to Wednesday last week it’s up like 8%. And it won’t get reset after Christmas cos it went to ACR well before December

Would predict no new entries next week - I suspect Wham! will be about 20k short. I also predict that Mariah will miss the top 40 this year barring crazy sales in the last week, I think the top 40 cutoff to be around her sales tally from last year (where she was #29), but she's well down year-on-year. Finally in addition to Cruel Summer being #11 for the second year in a row, Mr. Brightside is going to be #22 again like last year, Taste will catch it but it should finish ahead of Wham! and End of Beginning. Its projected sales for this year (~770,0000 would have put it at #15 last year).

I would expect Coldplay will get a bigger Christmas sales boost than Charli, Olivia and Chappell

Noooo Mitski It’s actually doing quite well again on Spotify atm but nowhere near enough to get back in I’m also now more confident Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree is going to make it based on strong Spotify numbers this week.

Wham is only 15k down compared to last year

Tom Grennan has very little chance of actually going #1 imo, but he probably will be #1 after the Sunday (and maybe Monday) updates. So just cash out the increased cash out value on that after a couple of days.

Comparison to equivalent Sunday last year: #1 (#1) Wham! - Last Christmas: -5,776 (-0.66%) #2 (#2) Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas is You: -72,258 (-8.82%) #3 (#3) Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree: -1,376 (-0.19%) #4 (#8) Bobby Helms - Jingle Bell Rock: +128,571 (+25.2%) #5 (#6) Ariana Grande - Santa Tell Me: -22,046 (-3.93%) #6 (#7) Andy Williams - It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year: +11,238 (+2.14%) #7 (#10) Kelly Clarkson - Underneath the Tree: +52,838 (+11.3%) #8 (#5) The Pogues feat. Kirsty MacColl - Fairytale of New York: -121,240 (-19.6%) #9 (#9) Dean Martin - Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!: -34,792 (-6.85%) #11 (#11) Michael Buble - Holly Jolly Christmas: -31,110 (-6.75%) #12 (#20) Elton John - Step into Christmas: +55,646 (+15.2%) #14 (#12) The Ronettes - Sleigh Ride: -35,866 (-8.10%) #15 (#21) Sia - Snowman: +9.798 (+2.68%) #16 (#13) Shakin' Stevens - Merry Christmas Everyone: -55,359 (-12.9%) #17 (#4) Michael Buble - It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas: -258,809 (-41.2%) #18 (#22) Jose Feliciano - Feliz Navidad: +1,794 (+0.51%) #20 (#15) Band Aid - Do They Know It's Christmas?: -77,123 (-18.8%) #21 (#55) Perry Como - It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas: +173,037 (+111.9%) #22 (#26) Darlene Love - Christmas (Baby Please Come Home): +21,842 (+7.22%) #23 (#19) Paul McCartney - Wonderful Christmastime: -57,061 (-15.3%) #25 (#23) Wizzard - I Wish It Could Be Christmas Everyday: -24,011 (-7.17%) #26 (#88) John Williams - Carol of the Bells: +196,721 (+174.7%) #27 (#14) John Lennon & Yoko One - Happy Xmas (War is Over): -116,475 (-27.5%) #28 (#27) Nat King Cole - The Christmas Song: +6,414 (+2.10%) #29 (#16) Chris Rea - Driving Home for Christmas: -100,847 (-24.8%) #30 (#34) Laufey - Winter Wonderland: +44,988 (+18.8%) Control Variable: #105 (#80) The Killers - Mr. Brightside: +468 (+0.38%) Something weird clearly happened between the Saturday and Sunday last year to Jingle Bell Rock as it suddenly dropped big time. Insane playlist effect on display once again. Overall streams are clearly up year on year for non-Christmas songs as well.

Ed Sheeran - Castle on the Hill

Ah maybe Kworb is wrong then. Mariah is most likely still #2 combined imo, although she is having a bad year this year. Going behind Wham! on Spotify Worldwide is huge even if she’s back ahead now

The Pogues getting destroyed on Apple as well now (down to #7) always thought their playlisting was quite good there, maybe it’s genuinely falling out of popularity

Correct - Although I would've hoped the improved playlisting would offset it more than it has, a bit concerned in won't make the top 10 officially this year now. Brenda could genuinely overtake Mariah soon, its worth bearing in mind there's a second version of Brenda which isn't combined so she's probably ahead considering that

Compared to equivalent Saturday last year: Wham! down 17k Mariah down 91k Brenda up 12k Jingle Bell Rock up 24k Santa Tell Me down 34k Most Wonderful Time of the Year up 16k Kelly up 53k Pogues down 182k Dean Martin down 27k Buble's It's Beginning to Look a lot Like Christmas is down 285k with Perry Como's version up 188k following the playlist movements

Wham! and Mariah both down around 100k compared to the equivalent Friday last year. Brenda only down 15k

Yes from last year we know it’s only one reset per artist, but the label chooses I believe, as the Taylor Swift song that got reset was Cruel Summer instead of Is It Over Now? Also if Gracie gets two more declines, she might get the funniest chart run of all time, something like #3 - #48 - #1

Nah no way - It must have done at least 25k last year and can't be doing much more than 8k a week at this point. Dog Days are Over has garbage Spotify numbers but somehow its total weekly sales are decent enough, I'm amazed its still here but I think it should be just about safe. Linger's dropped off a fair bit on Spotify recently tbf but I think it's probably pretty safe at this point.

Yeah it's tricky to estimate its sales but I think it must have done at least 9k this week. If both exes and Brenda don't end up doing enough I'd have it as the next most likely to make it ahead of Don't Look Back in Anger

Following this week's sales I think we can likely rule out That's So True from making it, I predict it will end up on around 430k (assuming a 52 week year). I still think Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree is very touch and go, think it could come down to how Boxing Day's streams are estimated. This would be my current prediction: In: Last Christmas All I Want for Christmas is You I Love You, I'm Sorry Somedays KEHLANI [Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree] Out: Take on Me Brown Eyed Girl My Love Mine All Mine :( Dance the Night Don't Look Back in Anger [exes]

This week's weekly Spotify chart is the first since w/e 27th December 2018 to not feature Someone You Loved by Lewis Capaldi. Almost 6 consecutive years! According to Kworb (as the Spotify website only goes back to 2017), Mr. Brightside has not left since w/e 24th December 2015.

Yes, but not since 2019 (#185 on Christmas Day) Peak of #111 on Christmas Day 2016 Never made a weekly chart

Mariah’s released a 30th anniversary version of her Christmas album including live performances of some tracks. Might help AIWFCIY get back ahead of Wham! worldwide

I agree that she probably will, but its been a pretty slow start for Christmas songs in general, her sales so far have been kinda between her 2022 sales (419k total) and 2023 (470k total), difficult to say how that trend will continue in December, but she's down a lot on Spotify so far. The massively higher cut off this year is what has me sceptical - if we were expecting a similar cut off to previous years, it would make it easily.

+12 NewEra ~ Birds in the Sky +10 Jorja Smith ~ Stay Another Day +08 Kygo and Ava Max ~ Whatever +07 Myles Smith ~ Stargazing +06 Ella Henderson ~ Alibi (feat. Rudimental) +05 Gracie Abrams ~ That's So True +04 Badger and Natasha Bedingfield ~ These Words +03 David Guetta and OneRepublic ~ I Don't Wanna Wait +02 Gracie Abrams ~ I Love You I'm Sorry +01 Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign ~ Carnival