GreyAsh

Rema - watch out! Kylie and Loreen are coming for you!

Interesting. I’ve noticed that even in my post, all of the artists are male.

This argument is making me smile 😀 I remember clearly Cher reaching number 1 - it was an amazing achievement. She was up against new artists such as: #2 George Michael #3 U2 #4 Culture Club #7 Aerosmith #11 Beautiful South/#13 Fatboy Slim 🤷🏻‍♂️ Regardless of the impact of radio playlisting, older artists really struggle to have hits in the streaming era.

Up 1 on Spotify to a new peak of 24! A climb for Wednesday is essential as it’s used to predict Thursday’s streams - so that’s good news. The other songs it is competing with for a top 10 place have remained stationary or fallen - apart from Loreen who climbs 3. But to make up for that, Kylie has leapfrogged Loreen on Apple. It’s all to play for now! Kylie has narrowed the gap in the Official Charts to 10th place from 792 to 355 sales! She is even in striking distance of number 9 (979 sales). Kylie achieved 579 sales yesterday (CD and download) and this has made a massive difference.

Up 1 to Spotify to a new peak of 24! A climb for Wednesday is essential as it’s used to predict Thursday’s streams. The other songs it is competing with for a top 10 place have remained stationary or fallen - apart from Loreen who climbs 3. But to make up for that, Kylie has leapfrogged Loreen on Apple. It’s all to play for now! Kylie has narrowed the gap in the Official Charts to 10th place from 792 to 355 sales! She is even in striking distance of number 9 (979 sales). Kylie achieved 579 sales yesterday (CD and download) and this has made a massive difference.

Even that would be amazing – her highest charting solo single since ‘All The Lovers’. And I don’t feel that it has reached its peak yet.

I would agree. Despite Elton John working in collaboration with other artists, it’s impossible to deny that this marked a singles chart renaissance! I also think about Paul McCartney and his song ‘Four Five Seconds’ - but I don’t feel that counts as it didn’t kick off a string of hits. I can’t remember how long ago that was, so I can’t remember whether it was in the download era or the streaming era.

As you have suggested, they will combine all identical versions for streaming purposes. Sometimes they make an error like with Mae Muller ‘I Wrote A Song’ where they accidentally combined the original version with the version that includes a French verse, but usually different mixes get different counts on Spotify. However, I don’t know with certainty the answer to your main question. I have always assumed that for Official Chart purposes they combine all mixes together with a maximum count of 10. But I don’t take this for granted, and if I am trying to help a song to charts, I will try to play each mix 10 times.

It’s still only 11 on mine which is the Amazon Prime chart 😭 How do you see the Amazon Music chart?

Yes. 100% And BMG only release things that will contribute towards the chart.

Amazing!!! ‘Padam Padam’ now takes up all of the top 3 slots on Amazon UK downloads! We all seem to have realised that you can download again after a couple of days - and these go towards the Official Singles Charts!

It’s definitely feasible now! Let’s see how things are going tomorrow 🤞🏻

Now #1, #2 AND #3 on Amazon downloads! Go Kylie!!!

Hooray! Padam Padam (Extended Mix) is now back to #2 on Amazon, with the single version re-entering at #18, whilst the album version remains at #1! It’s great to see that everyone has realised that you can re-purchase these a couple of days after you originally purchased them!

Yes!!!! It looks as though word has got out that you can re-purchase these on Amazon a few days after you originally purchased them. I guess many people also still don’t realise that if you buy the videos from iTunes, they will count as well.

Here are my projections for this week, compared with Kylie, without the cassettes, and therefore how many cassettes she would need to sell to overtake these songs. #10 Dave/CC - Trojan Horse +2,100 #11 Dave/CC - UK Rap +1,500 #12 Loreen +1,250 #13 Hannah Laing +700 #14 Kylie #15 Fifty Fifty -300 #16 David Guetta -1,100 #17 Dua Lipa -1,500 Three caveats 1 - This would underestimate those on upward trajectories: Kylie, Hannah Laing; and overestimate those on downward trajectories: possibly Dave and Central Cee tracks and Loreen. 2 - This would overestimate those doing well on Amazon compared with Spotify and vice versa - so Hannah Laing, Dave/Central Cee and Dua Lipa could be underestimated. 3 - It hasn’t taken into consideration whether any of Monday’s data is still missing: it makes the assumption that all streaming data (apart from Amazon) inlcludes up to the end of Monday with Amazon up to the end of Tuesday. Ultimately, even without cassettes, Kylie should eventually pull away from all those below her. Of those above her, Loreen looks to be within Kylie’s sights once cassettes are added; but the other three: Hannah Laing and the two Dave/Central Cee tracks will all depend on tomorrow’s updates, and could go either way. My prediction? 14 without cassettes; 13 with - but 10-13 could be close!

Here are my projections for this week, compared with Kylie, without the cassettes, and therefore how many cassettes she would need to sell to overtake these songs. #10 Dave/CC - Trojan Horse +2,100 #11 Dave/CC - UK Rap +1,500 #12 Loreen +1,250 #13 Hannah Laing +700 #14 Kylie #15 Fifty Fifty -300 #16 David Guetta -1,100 #17 Dua Lipa -1,500 Three caveats 1 - This would underestimate those on upward trajectories: Kylie, Hannah Laing; and overestimate those on downward trajectories: possibly Dave and Central Cee tracks and Loreen. 2 - This would overestimate those doing well on Amazon compared with Spotify and vice versa - so Hannah Laing, Dave/Central Cee and Dua Lipa could be underestimated. 3 - It hasn’t taken into consideration whether any of Monday’s data is still missing: it makes the assumption that all streaming data (apart from Amazon) inlcludes up to the end of Monday with Amazon up to the end of Tuesday. Ultimately, even without cassettes, Kylie should eventually pull away from all those below her. Of those above her, Loreen looks to be within Kylie’s sights once cassettes are added; but the other three: Hannah Laing and the two Dave/Central Cee tracks will all depend on tomorrow’s updates, and could go either way. My prediction? 14 without cassettes; 13 with - but 10-13 could be close!

Time to blow your mind: Padam Padam is #20 on Spotify once ACR is taken into account! And even that assumes that no Harry Styles songs are on ACR - I lose track. Yay to finally back into the Top 10 on Apple! I still have #12 on Amazon Prime. Does anyone have a link to the Amazon Unlimited Chart? I’ve searched everywhere for it.

So when is Spotify data up to date until? I assumed it was up to date to Monday - but even then the increase seems low. I can’t help but think that Wednesday’s update still misses some of Monday’s data.

Time to blow your mind: Padam Padam is #20 on Spotify once ACR is taken into account! And even that assumes that no Harry Styles songs are on ACR - I lose track.

I’ve just done a little bit of number crunching about Kylie’s sales this week. These are her current positions: #14 overall up to Tuesday’s chart (down from #13) #15 overall on additional sales since the previous day (Fifty Fifty are marginally higher - but overall she is 1,104 ahead of them) This means that the songs above Kylie are all pulling away from her, but she is pulling away from all but one of the songs below her. In streaming ‘sales’, the picture is also looking very positive : #17 overall on the week to date (same as yesterday). #17 for streaming ‘sales’ since the previous day - she was #15 yesterday but David Guetta and Dua Lipa have pulled back ahead of her. I’ll look at her final chart position and the impact of cassette sales later.

I have just tweaked my estimates for the number of cassettes Kylie needs to sell to overtake songs this week. It is slightly less optimistic. At the current rate, I estimate that she would need the following: 650 cassette sales to overtake Hannah Laing to reach #12 1700 cassette sales to overtake Loreen to reach #11 1750 cassette sales to overtake Dave/Central Cee, Trojan Horse to reach #10 2800 cassette sales to overtake Rema to reach #9 I have also put that Dave will overtake Loreen now. There are still a couple of things this doesn’t take into consideration. Songs doing well on Amazon will be easier to catch (Loreen - and staying above David Guetta, Dua Lipa, Fifty Fifty, Lewis Capaldi). Songs doing less well on Amazon will be tougher to catch (Hannah Laing, Dave + CC - Trojan Horse - whilst UK Rap could overtake). But what Kylie does have in her favour is the fact that she has momentum on Spotify and this data doesn’t include her peak day of Monday. I’m going to go for the chart looking like this without cassette sales: 8/9 Harry Styles and Rema 10 Trojan Horse 11 Hannah Laing 12 Loreen 13 UK Rap 14 Kylie 15/16/17 David Guetta/Dua Lipa/Fifty Fifty There will be a big gap between Loreen and UK Rap; and a big gap between Kylie/UK Rap and the chasing pack. Therefore, it may be the case that the only impact that the cassettes have is keeping Kylie above UK Rap, therefore being 13, not 14, though both Hannah and Loreen are in her sights. Looking at the current trajectory, I feel that overtaking Trojan Horse, and a top 10 place might be a bit too much to hope for. We will know more after today’s update.

After falling to 15 on Amazon, it’s back up to 12. I can’t remember whether it has been 12 before or whether it previously peaked at 13. Also whilst still at 1 on Amazon downloads, the extended version is back up to 5. I imagine this is because people realise that they are able to download it again after a period of a couple of days.

My head agrees with you. But the data is more ambiguous. Yesterday’s one day figures show they are pretty close: Kylie: 3,314 Hannah: 3,368 Add to this, the fact that it doesn’t include Kylie being the highest climber in the top 100 on Spotify on Monday (those figures will be included today) suggests that Kylie can catch Hannah with the cassettes. Amazing news about the viral charts! Songs seem to suddenly reach a threshold where they can be included. Hopefully it can climb there too!

I’ve just done a little bit of number crunching about Kylie’s sales this week. These are her current positions: #13 overall up to Tuesday’s chart (down from #12) #13 overall on additional sales since the previous day This means that the songs above Kylie are all pulling away from her, but she is pulling away from all of the songs below her - and therefore hopefully she shouldn’t fall below number #13 at any point this week (as long as she can continue to pull away from ‘UK Rap’). At the current rate, I estimate that she would need the following: 250 cassette sales to overtake Hannah Laing to reach #12 1300 cassette sales to overtake Dave/Central Cee, Trojan Horse to reach #11 1350 cassette sales to overtake Loreen to reach #10 2400 cassette sales to overtake Rema to reach #9 So if Kylie can generate 1500 cassette sales in pre-orders, BMG should dispatch them on Thursday - if not, then save them until next week. Of course, the picture might change by the last update. Overall Kylie is in the top 2 for downloads (I’ve not seen the figures for BTS) and top 3 for sales (I’ve not seen the figures for the Sex Pistols either). In streaming ‘sales’, the picture is also looking very positive : #17 overall on the week to date. This is up from #18 the previous day as Kylie has overtaken Lewis Capaldi. #15 for streaming ‘sales’ since the previous day. ‘Padam Padam’ had a higher daily figure than both David Guetta and Dua Lipa, though she is unlikely to catch up with their weekly streaming figures before the end of the week - they had too good a head start