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GreyAsh

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Posts posted by GreyAsh

    I’ve just done a little bit of number crunching about Kylie’s sales this week.

     

    These are her current positions:

     

    #14 overall up to Tuesday’s chart (down from #13)

    #15 overall on additional sales since the previous day (Fifty Fifty are marginally higher - but overall she is 1,104 ahead of them)

     

    This means that the songs above Kylie are all pulling away from her, but she is pulling away from all but one of the songs below her.

     

    In streaming ‘sales’, the picture is also looking very positive :

     

    #17 overall on the week to date (same as yesterday).

    #17 for streaming ‘sales’ since the previous day - she was #15 yesterday but David Guetta and Dua Lipa have pulled back ahead of her.

     

    I’ll look at her final chart position and the impact of cassette sales later.

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    Edited by GreyAsh

    I have just tweaked my estimates for the number of cassettes Kylie needs to sell to overtake songs this week. It is slightly less optimistic.

     

    At the current rate, I estimate that she would need the following:

     

    650 cassette sales to overtake Hannah Laing to reach #12

    1700 cassette sales to overtake Loreen to reach #11

    1750 cassette sales to overtake Dave/Central Cee, Trojan Horse to reach #10

    2800 cassette sales to overtake Rema to reach #9

     

    I have also put that Dave will overtake Loreen now.

     

    There are still a couple of things this doesn’t take into consideration.

     

    Songs doing well on Amazon will be easier to catch (Loreen - and staying above David Guetta, Dua Lipa, Fifty Fifty, Lewis Capaldi).

     

    Songs doing less well on Amazon will be tougher to catch (Hannah Laing, Dave + CC - Trojan Horse - whilst UK Rap could overtake).

     

    But what Kylie does have in her favour is the fact that she has momentum on Spotify and this data doesn’t include her peak day of Monday.

     

    I’m going to go for the chart looking like this without cassette sales:

     

    8/9 Harry Styles and Rema

    10 Trojan Horse

    11 Hannah Laing

    12 Loreen

    13 UK Rap

    14 Kylie

    15/16/17 David Guetta/Dua Lipa/Fifty Fifty

     

    There will be a big gap between Loreen and UK Rap; and a big gap between Kylie/UK Rap and the chasing pack. Therefore, it may be the case that the only impact that the cassettes have is keeping Kylie above UK Rap, therefore being 13, not 14, though both Hannah and Loreen are in her sights. Looking at the current trajectory, I feel that overtaking Trojan Horse, and a top 10 place might be a bit too much to hope for.

     

    We will know more after today’s update.

    After falling to 15 on Amazon, it’s back up to 12. I can’t remember whether it has been 12 before or whether it previously peaked at 13.

     

    Also whilst still at 1 on Amazon downloads, the extended version is back up to 5. I imagine this is because people realise that they are able to download it again after a period of a couple of days.

    That Hannah Laing one has climbed astronomically since the start of the week, I have a feeling it may be a bit hard to catch now. Hoping 'Trojan Horse' is at least catchable.

     

    It'll certainly be interesting to see what difference the cassettes make here!

     

    My head agrees with you. But the data is more ambiguous.

     

    Yesterday’s one day figures show they are pretty close:

     

    Kylie: 3,314

    Hannah: 3,368

     

    Add to this, the fact that it doesn’t include Kylie being the highest climber in the top 100 on Spotify on Monday (those figures will be included today) suggests that Kylie can catch Hannah with the cassettes.

     

    Amazing news about the viral charts! Songs seem to suddenly reach a threshold where they can be included. Hopefully it can climb there too!

    I’ve just done a little bit of number crunching about Kylie’s sales this week.

     

    These are her current positions:

     

    #13 overall up to Tuesday’s chart (down from #12)

    #13 overall on additional sales since the previous day

     

    This means that the songs above Kylie are all pulling away from her, but she is pulling away from all of the songs below her - and therefore hopefully she shouldn’t fall below number #13 at any point this week (as long as she can continue to pull away from ‘UK Rap’).

     

    At the current rate, I estimate that she would need the following:

     

    250 cassette sales to overtake Hannah Laing to reach #12

    1300 cassette sales to overtake Dave/Central Cee, Trojan Horse to reach #11

    1350 cassette sales to overtake Loreen to reach #10

    2400 cassette sales to overtake Rema to reach #9

     

    So if Kylie can generate 1500 cassette sales in pre-orders, BMG should dispatch them on Thursday - if not, then save them until next week. Of course, the picture might change by the last update.

     

    Overall Kylie is in the top 2 for downloads (I’ve not seen the figures for BTS) and top 3 for sales (I’ve not seen the figures for the Sex Pistols either).

     

    In streaming ‘sales’, the picture is also looking very positive :

     

    #17 overall on the week to date. This is up from #18 the previous day as Kylie has overtaken Lewis Capaldi.

    #15 for streaming ‘sales’ since the previous day. ‘Padam Padam’ had a higher daily figure than both David Guetta and Dua Lipa, though she is unlikely to catch up with their weekly streaming figures before the end of the week - they had too good a head start

    From that point of view it does indeed look more positive, with cassettes included it probably is top 10 and with streaming increasing its very good, are the songs ahead of her that she is battling against (the ones closest to her) for top 10 also increasing?

     

    I’ve just done a little bit of number crunching about Kylie’s sales this week.

     

    These are her current positions:

     

    #13 overall up to Tuesday’s chart (down from #12)

    #13 overall on additional sales since the previous day

     

    This means that the songs above Kylie are all pulling away from her, but she is pulling away from all of the songs below her - and therefore hopefully she shouldn’t fall below number #13 at any point this week (as long as she can continue to pull away from ‘UK Rap’).

     

    At the current rate, I estimate that she would need the following:

     

    250 cassette sales to overtake Hannah Laing to reach #12

    1300 cassette sales to overtake Dave/Central Cee, Trojan Horse to reach #11

    1350 cassette sales to overtake Loreen to reach #10

    2400 cassette sales to overtake Rema to reach #9

     

    So if Kylie can generate 1500 cassette sales in pre-orders, BMG should dispatch them on Thursday - if not, then save them until next week. Of course, the picture might change by the last update.

     

    Overall Kylie is in the top 2 for downloads (I’ve not seen the figures for BTS) and top 3 for sales (I’ve not seen the figures for the Sex Pistols either).

     

    In streaming ‘sales’, the picture is also looking very positive :

     

    #17 overall on the week to date. This is up from #18 the previous day as Kylie has overtaken Lewis Capaldi.

    #15 for streaming ‘sales’ since the previous day. ‘Padam Padam’ had a higher daily figure than both David Guetta and Dua Lipa, though she is unlikely to catch up with their weekly streaming figures before the end of the week - they had too good a head start

     

    Oh my, this I did not know!

     

    And it does 100% count as a separate sale?

     

    You know me - I can always teach you a think or two 😉

     

    I recall our ‘discussion’ about purchasing video downloads from iTunes. Talking of which - has everyone downloaded the video from iTunes?

     

    I hope everyone doesn't stop streaming once she gets top 10. We need to continue. She could be top 40 all summer into mid August

     

    To be fair, most people streaming it are not doing so just to get it into the charts. It’s doing well in the streaming charts because people want to hear it - and this is the reason why it is playlisted as well.

     

    So Padam Padam is currently at its peak in most the important charts apart from Apple (thanks mostly to Dave)

     

    #1 (10 and 16) on iTunes.

    #1 (and 4) on Amazon downloads.

    #11 on Apple Music (peak #10)

    #13 on Amazon

    #31 on Spotify (highest climber within the top 100 - not including those climbing from outside the top 100)

     

    #1 on Big Top 40

     

    And it is still growing.

     

     

    If any of you are curious about who is Padaming the hardest x

     

    Who posted in: Padam Padam ● 1st Single

    Poster Posts

    ___∆___ 370

    SmileyKylie 366

    Padamic Tension 202

    Jessie Where 183

    JustCarolHoney 179

    -Jay- 101

    No Sleeep 73

    Yobnedor 70

    Liam.k. 67

    perrobueno 64

    aeroco 51

    spiceboy 46

    tommie 45

    GreyAsh 42

     

    …when you message a friend saying ‘are you on Buzzjack’ and it turns out they’re one of the top 5 posters here 🤦🏼‍♂️

     

    I’m comparatively easy to identify on here.

     

    Padam is no12 in todays midweeks - it has fallen from yesterdays no10 position as I predicted and would be surprised if it returns to T10 unless the cassettes bundle makes a difference.

     

    The cassette bundles will make a difference… but will they push it top 10 this week?

     

    There is a lot of defeatism around, even though ‘Padam Padam’ is still growing and has so much more potential. There are two patterns for singles these days, either they debut and plummet, or they start to climb, and climb for several weeks. ‘Padam Padam’ is one of the latter songs and therefore could still have plenty of time to peak. Hopefully Kylie’s record company will make a good decision about whether to add the cassettes this week or next.

    With J Hus the only new entry strong enough to be above Kylie, and the two Dave tracks in massive decline, Kylie does stand a good chance of being top 10 once the cassettes are added. Remember, she is not as frontloaded as she was last week - and she is still on the up on both Amazon and Spotify.

     

    On another note, Kylie is number 1 for the 3rd week on the Big Top 40. I’m pretty sure that chart counts downloads over a whole week. So it’s unsurprising the new releases aren’t above her, and her downloads have been consistently above Calvin Harris until they were split across 3 to 4 versions.

     

    I was going to ask about this. How much is the number 1 position on Big Top 40 influenced by downloads, and how much by streams? And if it is mostly downloads, does it just cover the past couple of days, or does it cover the past week? I was wondering whether BTS might be number 1, but I feel that if it is covering the past week, Kylie might still have the edge.

     

    And just noting that BTS haven’t made a show on the Apple Music streaming chart.