GreyAsh

It looks like we have an outcome already. Even with no more sales, Kylie should be on 48.5k at the end of the week. My current estimate for Wham! is around 44.8k - at any rate between 44k and 47k. Even with my highest estimates, Wham! would have no more than 49k or 50k really pushing it. I don’t see any way that they can catch her now.

They seem to have done so last week.

It was the downloads. She got as many downloads yesterday as the rest of the week combined! (Just under 3,000). Unless her record company has only just announced its downloads.

Easily? They might take it, but if they do, I imagine it will be close. At present, as of yesterday, they were showing no signs of being able to catch up with Kylie. Last year they got 53k apart from physicals. They are down at least 6-10% on last year so 50k really would be their max - and Kylie is currently headed for around 49k.

There are two charts, but one of them is fairly irrelevant, because it puts several versions of each song in, and therefore, for example, Mariah is comparatively low. The other chart you can only find if you have Amazon Music membership.

I guess the reason is, people often start on track one and then press shuffle. We’ve seen the way that when random Christmas songs are placed high up, they suddenly do well in the charts, and then plummet afterwards, for example ‘Sleigh Ride’. And Mariah has been really struggling this year now that the number 1 position changes twice a week. Minor changes like this have a small but significant impact. And Wham! overtook Mariah on Spotify (I can’t remember if that was globally or in the US) straight after they were moved to the top of the playlist. The stories are endless.

Probably. But it’s always made a massive impact on daily charts globally, in the UK and US. And Kylie and Wham! are neck and neck at present - both aiming for around 49k. I’d say Kylie has the edge but we will know better today.

I wonder if LC being promoted to number 1 on Spotify’s Christmas Hits today might change the odds.

Love ‘Bad Habits’. Meh to ‘DSN’

That said: a) They are number 1 on the Billboard Global Chart for the first time ever. b) They are now number 1 on Christmas Hits. Probably until Saturday so might reach number 1 on Friday or Saturday.

And the latest twist in the tale: Spotify have put Wham! back to number 1 on Christmas Hits Playlist (and Mariah down to 6). Will this be enough to secure Wham! the Christmas Number 1? They are currently the Billboard Global Number 1 for the first time ever.

Just listened to Lullaby. It’s not a bad song but it’s not for me and I’d never choose to listen to it again. But I respect the fact that some do like it. It’s not the kind of song that would be a hit on its own merits. In my opinion XMAS deserves to be a hit - but likewise, others might think it’s crap.

I think he means XMAS.

I certainly wasn’t dismissing your question as I ‘liked’ it. Just saying that a lot of Kylie’s downloads are down to diehard fans like me. I love the song - but there are a few who are downloading it even if they don’t love it. But I have no need to download it. I do so because I want it to be successful. The same can be said for Wham! fans (also like me). And Mariah. And anyone who wants success for their favourite artist.

Or because they are fans.

I’m terms of streaming, you can go to Kylie’s page and look under releases. But I struggle with the downloads.

But are they buying it because they like the song? Or because they are supporting the cause? Or because they are feeling pressured into buying it?

I can’t find it yet. Unlike Kylie’s store I think they have to plan further in advance.

I can’t believe that her ex-boyfriend would do that to her!

It’s difficult to say. I’ve currently got them on 6,815,000 on Christmas Day and Killers on 6,799,000 or slightly less. Wham!’s figure could be higher as 19th December it gets more streams than 26th and I’ve not factored that in… (though last year OCC would have estimated too high on Boxing Day). But could be lower because of this year’s estimation. Last year they got more than 200,000. I can’t get my head around what it will be this year.

We are very close then. Killers increased on Spotify despite the Christmas rush. And Wham! are on exactly 6,513,904 I think.

Argh! So Killers are in the range 6,765,000 to 6,775,000 so still can’t tell if they are ahead of ‘Shape Of You’. I had them on 6,773,000 - but that’s also the maximum based on your figures last December. I’m pretty sure they’ve overtaken as I have Ed on around 6,768,000. Just need OCC to confirm! If they ever will. @Julian_ what’s your non-rounded estimate for Killers?

Remind me – are we currently figuring there is one more week, or two more weeks (or 3)?

In answer to a comment and the other thread, I have Wham! catching up by 611 sales (not 125) today - though my data is secondhand, so I can’t verify it. However they are still marginally (110 sales) behind where Kylie was yesterday (compared with 116 the previous day) - so in that sense, Wham! are not really catching up by much. If Wham! stay a day behind, they can only catch up if something odd happens behind the scenes (they’d need to be around half a day behind on Wednesday/Thursday to catch up on Friday). I’ve also heard that Kylie’s download figure yesterday was quite promising, so fans have really got behind the download strategy.

That’s brilliant. The previous day was 250 - and today was going to be one of the most challenging days.