tomm11

Latest update: JB at 0.3168 combined. Nowhere near enough by my calcs - only slightly up on yesterday when the NHS got their mega boost.

Thursday streaming doesn't count towards the Friday chart guys. It's 'upweighted' from the previous six days averages.

More than that unfortunately - NHS were closing on him when they were posting those iTunes proportions earlier in the week.

Bieber back up to 0.2840. Any ideas what he'd need to inch back ahead? Am guessing 0.8 or more given yesterday.

I think spotify has been claiming 450-500k streams (which translates to 4,500-5,000 equivalent sales) for Justin daily. Don't have a link for that unfortunately, can't remember where I saw it.

I think your sums are wrong somewhere along the line, gooddelta. They closed the gap by 6,400 yesterday alone, and the differential will be far bigger today given the download data. You seem to be overestimating Justin's streaming by a couple of k for starters. - I had it as around 5k. I think the choir outsold Justin 2:1 yesterday rather than 16:13.

That last Kworb update suggests the NHS dirge is going viral :( If they end today at say 0.4 (combined), what proportion will they need to keep Bieber down to in order to to make up for the first four days?

You're better off backing the NHS track with a bookie (11/4 is available at the moment) than cashing out. At least do the sums before you hit the cash-out button because they're generally not great value.

I've worked for a bookie in the past. They don't care whether they win or lose on these markets - if they lose they just use it as PR (plus their customers are kept happy). This market accounts for about a millionth (literally) of their stakes across the year so they're really not bothered - if anything they'll be happy to pay out and get the publicity and watch punters reinvest the winnings in football and racing. On top of that, their books are often in good shape because people back no-hopers like Cliff Richard, Adele and Stormzy, not to mention the early fav Louisa. None of them will be worried about their books.

Excellent - Get #streamloveyourself trending on Twitter, Grinch! Everyone knows a Belieber or two, let's hit it hard!

On loop here too! Wouldn't mind if the NHS track was any good but it's a real dirge. Hopefully interest in the campaign has plateaued given the big push this morning. Difficult to believe it will continue to snowball - surely there's a limit to the kind of person who will to download a song they'll never actually listen to in order to show solidarity with the NHS.

Kworb latest: no movement from last update - 1.2 v 0.75.

OC: The battle for the Official Christmas Number 1 remains incredibly close, as the NHS Choir continues to chase Justin Bieber for this year's festive crown. As things stand in today's sales flash (December 22), Justin's Love Yourself has narrowly extended its lead over The Lewisham & Greenwich NHS Choir's A Bridge Over You, with the two now separated by less than 7,000 combined sales. Some celebs getting behind the NHS track, which has overtaken Biebs on iTunes now. Needs to continue its momentum but could be closing up at least.

Does Adele have the top album in the bag? Looks like she's too far clear for anyone else to challenge.

Looks like NHS downloads dropping off a cliff on iTunes. Still #1 and #2 on the Amazon download list though. With streaming to be added, this now looks wrapped up in shiny Santa wrapping paper for Justin.

Thanks Joseph - so we can be reasonably sure that some streaming data is missing? Apologies for only being a part-timer and asking obvious questions - I only pop in here because I often have a punt on the Xmas #1 market and like to make sure that I'm not doing my dough!

Official Charts Press Release - does this add up? The NHS Choir continues to lead way in the race for this year's Christmas Number 1, Official Charts can confirm. The race is far from over yet though, as their lead on yesterday's update over Justin Bieber's Love Yourself (which was based on sales only) has reduced to just over 2,000 combined sales and streams. Bieber's previous single, Sorry, has also climbed back up to complete the Top 3. The Lewisham & Greenwich NHS Choir's A Bridge Over You - a mash-up of Coldplay's Fix You and Bridge Over Troubled Water by Simon & Garfunkel - is being released in support of the NHS, with proceeds going to charities Mind and Carers UK

Wow, so 70-80% - have I read that right? I had no idea it was that big a percentage!

That makes sense. I'd also guess that the slide in iTunes share of the total music sales market is more than offset by the parallel rise in popularity Apple's subscription streaming service, which again isn't accounted for by iTunes, Amazon or Google download stats. Does anyone know what proportion of total 'sales' (as measured for the charts) are made up by streaming nowadays?

Annoyingly I can't seem to post this link. Sure you'll get round it! musicbusinessworldwide.com/amazon-sold-more-music-than-apple-in-the-uk-last-year/

You sure about that Ben? If you're right with that figure then Bieber is home and hosed. I understood Amazon and iTunes accounted for roughly the same share of the download market.

The Bieber tune is only number one on iTunes downloads. At Amazon, which is at least as big a portal, the NHS track is 1 & 2. I don't know how to calculate them combined but it's a lot closer than the kworb data implies.

Care to guess at this week's figure by Saturday, Eric? There was talk of 1.3m (in four days) last week - would you expect around double that this week under the circumstances?