And having Caroline there would stop it being a total sausage fest :kink:

 

i dont know what you mean...... :unsure:

It is just a blip IMHO

 

Clegg is enjoying his 15 mins of fame after the other night but when it gets closer to the time of the election people will start moving more and more towards Cameron

 

The novelty of Clegg will wear off nearer election time

 

I am still 100% convinced Cameron will have a comfortable working majority

 

You're being way too complacent. Forget about a "comfortable" majority - as Cameron himself says today, the Tories are in for the "fight of their lives" just to get any kind of majority.

 

After Thursday, Clegg has successfully usurped both of Cameron's USPs - he's now both the most personable candidate AND the change candidate. The two biggest issues in this election by a long way are the economy and political reform, both of which the public have left-wing views on - and now that the Tories' policies are coming under close scrutiny, the public are realising they score poorly on both issues. Admittedly, the public have more right-wing views on crime, immigration and Europe, but unfortunately for the Tories, they simply aren't big issues atm. And absolutely NO-ONE gives a stuff about this "take over your local school or hospital!" thing - which, in a sign of the gimmickry of Cameron, he abandoned just two days after launching it (he made NO mention of it in the debate).

 

So forget about a landslide Tory victory. If Clegg starts really driving home the Lib Dems' anti-war stance, their surge could go even further - harming the Tories even more.

You're being way too complacent. Forget about a "comfortable" majority - as Cameron himself says today, the Tories are in for the "fight of their lives" just to get any kind of majority.

 

After Thursday, Clegg has successfully usurped both of Cameron's USPs - he's now both the most personable candidate AND the change candidate. The two biggest issues in this election by a long way are the economy and political reform, both of which the public have left-wing views on - and now that the Tories' policies are coming under close scrutiny, the public are realising they score poorly on both issues. Admittedly, the public have more right-wing views on crime, immigration and Europe, but unfortunately for the Tories, they simply aren't big issues atm. And absolutely NO-ONE gives a stuff about this "take over your local school or hospital!" thing - which, in a sign of the gimmickry of Cameron, he abandoned just two days after launching it (he made NO mention of it in the debate).

 

So forget about a landslide Tory victory. If Clegg starts really driving home the Lib Dems' anti-war stance, their surge could go even further - harming the Tories even more.

 

I will have to keep it brief as typing from a pub on iPhone while watching the Manc derby but I do totally disagree with you about how the public feel about electoral reform I doubt it makes most peoples top 10 issues tbh and is way behind tax/economy, immigration and crime as issues that matter to people of this country.

 

I would say that economy, immigration, crime, nhs, transport/roads/fuel prices, education etc are way higher priorities for most people.

If political reform wasn't that much of an issue how do you explain the public outrage over Expensesgate? Political reform is more than just electoral reform...

If political reform wasn't that much of an issue how do you explain the public outrage over Expensesgate? Political reform is more than just electoral reform...

 

There was outrage over it because of media hype, bit of a sheep mentality almost

 

There is no adult in this country who has not fiddled their expenses a bit to avoid tax, VAT, claiming back business expenses if they are running a business or are self employed, if not running a business then adding a couple of things to a home insurance claim, or walking through the "nothing to declare" channel at Heathrow after buying some items on holiday etc etc

 

EVERYONE does it and if they are not an adult yet trust me they will

 

The MP's are a reflection of society

Two polls so far tonight - there will probably be more later.

 

One in the Sunday Telegraph is very interesting as the interviews were conducted on Wednesday (when the Lib Dem manifesto was published) and Thursday, i.e. before the debate. If it was by phone or internet, some may have been while the debate was on but not much. That poll gives Con 34 Lab 29 Lib Dem 27 which suggests opinion may have been shifting even before the debate.

 

The poll in the Sunday Mirror with all interviews after the debate gives Con 31 Lab 27 Lib Dem 29.

 

Once again, thanks to our electoral system, both results could leave Labour as the largest party.

I will have to keep it brief as typing from a pub on iPhone while watching the Manc derby but I do totally disagree with you about how the public feel about electoral reform I doubt it makes most peoples top 10 issues tbh and is way behind tax/economy, immigration and crime as issues that matter to people of this country.

 

I would say that economy, immigration, crime, nhs, transport/roads/fuel prices, education etc are way higher priorities for most people.

 

LOL you can't be serious. On Question Time, week after week, everyone is always saying how they're so disillusioned with politics and how they want it to be cleaned up. If anything, I might have been under-selling it by saying it was the second-biggest issue - for many people, it would even top the economy. No-one's talking about immigration.

 

LOVE the latest polls!

^ I kind of agree, Gordon's managed to do a lot for immigration in the last few years, so I think fewer people are concerned by it - but lots of people are disillusioned by MPs 'untouchable' status and the system we have so I'd say that's a big issue for the next government to sort out.

There was outrage over it because of media hype, bit of a sheep mentality almost

 

There is no adult in this country who has not fiddled their expenses a bit to avoid tax, VAT, claiming back business expenses if they are running a business or are self employed, if not running a business then adding a couple of things to a home insurance claim, or walking through the "nothing to declare" channel at Heathrow after buying some items on holiday etc etc

 

EVERYONE does it and if they are not an adult yet trust me they will

 

The MP's are a reflection of society

 

How many "ordinary people" out there are flipping their second homes, enjoying a "non-dom" status and pay NO TAXES to this country (Hello Lord Ashcroft)... How many "ordinary people" out there are deliberately avoiding Capital Gains Tax by claiming a house they live in for about two or three months of the year is actually their primary residence, and the house where their spouses and children live is somehow their "second home"...? How many "ordinary people" are claiming for things like duck ponds and moats which have NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with their ordinary duties as an MP......?

 

MPs are so far removed from the reality of many working class people or small business owners it's not even funny... And I find it utterly shocking that you can defend someone like Lord Ashcroft or the scum who have brought Parliament into disrepute and who are facing charges of FRAUD right now... Oh and then still have the fukkin' nerve to claim Legal Aid.... <_<

 

How many "ordinary people" out there are flipping their second homes, enjoying a "non-dom" status and pay NO TAXES to this country (Hello Lord Ashcroft)... How many "ordinary people" out there are deliberately avoiding Capital Gains Tax by claiming a house they live in for about two or three months of the year is actually their primary residence, and the house where their spouses and children live is somehow their "second home"...? How many "ordinary people" are claiming for things like duck ponds and moats which have NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with their ordinary duties as an MP......?

 

MPs are so far removed from the reality of many working class people or small business owners it's not even funny... And I find it utterly shocking that you can defend someone like Lord Ashcroft or the scum who have brought Parliament into disrepute and who are facing charges of FRAUD right now... Oh and then still have the fukkin' nerve to claim Legal Aid.... <_<

 

I am not defending them I am just saying that everyone does it to some extent and therefore we get the MP's we deserve as they are a reflection of society as a whole

 

Those that have actually committed fraud should face th full weight of the law and go to prison if convicted but everyone near as damn is at it in society and I just don't have this belief that MP's are whiter than white or even expect them to be, they are merely a reflection of society

 

I have lost count the number of times I used the corporate credit card for entertainment expenses while I was away on business trips, Done things cash in hand instead of putting them through the books etc, I have never walked through the "something to declare" channel in my life, am I really in a position to judge MP's ?

Edited April 19, 201015 yr by B.A Baracus

Brown blocked benefit reforms as Chancellor, Shows he is a caring man then.

 

From The Telegraph.

 

Gordon Brown repeatedly delayed and blocked attempts to radically reform Britain's benefits system, Tony Blair's former welfare adviser revealed today.

 

Lord Freud, who now advises the Tories, said that when Mr Brown was Chancellor he behaved in a “threatening” manner over proposals to end Britain's “dependency culture”.

 

Writing in the Standard, Lord Freud spoke for the first time of his poor relations with Mr Brown and said that only the Conservatives could deliver real reform. David Cameron today announced that a Tory government would get its plans under way this year.

 

Lord Freud, a former City boss, became Mr Blair's independent welfare adviser in 2006. He called for more private sector involvement in the welfare system and for single parents to have to work earlier.

 

Today he disclosed that although Mr Blair was happy with his plans, Mr Brown “growled” when the reforms were presented to him.

 

“He leaned threateningly towards me, jabbing a stubby finger at a table in my draft,” Lord Freud said. “Try as I might, I could not get him to discuss matters of principle.”

 

After Mr Brown became Prime Minister in 2007, he was accused of watering down reform.

 

Under the Tory plans, a Work Programme would help those struggling to find work straight away, and after six months for under-26s. The unemployed will have “Work Clubs” to learn skills.

 

The private sector would be used to get people into jobs that last more than a year, and the party also pledges to offer 400,000 apprenticeship, training and college places over two years.

 

But those who turn down the Work Programme or three “reasonable job offers” will have their benefits cut, potentially losing three years of payments.

 

Mr Cameron said: “The big government way has failed. It's time to tackle welfare dependency a new way — the Big Society way. Do the right thing and we will back you. But fail to take responsibility and the free ride is over.”

Edited April 20, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

Lord Freud, who now advises the Tories, said that when Mr Brown was Chancellor he behaved in a “threatening” manner over proposals to end Britain's “dependency culture”.

 

I saw that as Lord Fraud, who now advises the Tories! :lol:

 

 

Mr Cameron said: “The big government way has failed. It's time to tackle welfare dependency a new way — the Big Society way. Do the right thing and we will back you. But fail to take responsibility and the free ride is over.”

 

Chris this means he'll help people like yourself get back to work ... aren't you pleased?

 

Norma

Comres poll confirmed tonight. 9 point Tory lead.

 

ComRes ITV/Independent

 

CONSERVATIVES 35% +3

LIB DEMS 26% -2

LABOUR 26% -2

 

“This is the first time a telephone pollster has given the Conservatives such a large lead since the end of March. This poll gives Conservatives 299 seats - 27 short of an overall majority – Labour 233 seats and Liberal Democrats 86."

Edited April 20, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

Comres poll confirmed tonight. 9 point Tory lead.

 

ComRes ITV/Independent

 

CONSERVATIVES 35% +3

LIB DEMS 26% -2

LABOUR 26% -2

 

“This is the first time a telephone pollster has given the Conservatives such a large lead since the end of March. This poll gives Conservatives 299 seats - 27 short of an overall majority – Labour 233 seats and Liberal Democrats 86."

This is completely out of line with all other opinion polls so should be ignored unless other polls give similar results.

YouGov for the tommorrows Sun is now giving the Lib Dems a 3 point lead over the Conservatives.

 

Libs: 34%

Con: 31%

Lab: 26%

 

AngusReid has also just published a poll showing a Lib Dem lead of 1 point. This is significant as AngusReid have been polling the Tories much higher than other organisations in the run up to the election before the Lib Dem surge.

I still think the Tories will win outright but with a very small majority. Today's benefit crackdown announcement could prove popular with those not claiming benefits. If Cameron does well in the two debates especially the last one I still think it's his election to lose.

Edited April 20, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

I still think the Tories will win outright but with a very small majority. Today's benefit crackdown announcement could prove popular with those not claiming benefits. If Cameron does well in the two debates especially the last one I still think it's his election to lose.

 

I still think there will be a working tory majority, maybe not as big as my previous guess of 60 or so but certainly up to 40 and at least 25 I think

 

Clegg and Lib Dems will fade

Clegg and Lib Dems will fade

What, in two weeks? :lol: The Brown bounce lasted several months, these sorts of bounces tend to last for a couple of months at least - Clegg had perfect timing. Unless something goes catastrophically wrong for the Lib Dems they'll get about 25-30+% of the vote definitely. That said, I can't see the Tories going below 32% nor can I see Labour going below 28% on election day - so essentially Clegg has to try and reach 35%.

Anyone who thinks any party is getting an overall majority needs a reality check. And one thing we can surely all agree on: IF the election was held today, the result would almost certainly be a Labour-Lib Dem "pact", possibly even a full-on coalition.

imho the rise in support for the lib dems will only rob the tories of votes. the tv debate has boosted the lib dems and show boy cameron up for the uncious weasel he is. few people believe the boy wonder, i still dont think theyll win.