Some fascinating (but ultimately very speculative) poll information from the Guardian. It asked how certain each respondent was of their voting intentions, and if they weren't certain, who they were thinking of voting for, producing maximum and minimum possible eventual voting numbers.

 

 

CONSERVATIVES

Current poll rating: 33%

Unlikely to change: 83%

Minimum possible outcome: 27%

Maximum possible outcome: 37%

 

LABOUR

Current poll rating: 28%

Unlikely to change: 68%

Minimum possible outcome: 18%

Maximum possible outcome: 33%

 

LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

Current poll rating: 30%

Unlikely to change: 69%

Minimum possible outcome: 23%

Maximum possible outcome: 40%

 

 

So we can see that the Lib Dems are the only party with the potential of hitting 40% - although even that probably wouldn't give them a majority. The Tories face a near-impossible task to get a majority as their maximum outcome would be unlikely to give them a majority.

 

The same poll also shows that Cameron is seen as the most competent PM, but also as representing spin over substance more than the other two.

I popped in an ideal result for the Lib Dems from that into the Seat Calculator:

 

LIB / 39.5% / 262

CON / 30.8% / 203

LAB / 23.1% / 159

OTHER / 6.5% / 26

 

And even THAT'S stretching it a bit. Labour will have to truly collapse for the Libs to be the biggest party, and I'm pretty sure they won't go that much lower than 1983 levels (I reckon 27% minimum for Labour), and OTHER will probably get more than 6.5%. Essentially, what we're seeing is a guaranteed hung parliament...

I popped in an ideal result for the Lib Dems from that into the Seat Calculator:

 

LIB / 39.5% / 262

CON / 30.8% / 203

LAB / 23.1% / 159

OTHER / 6.5% / 26

 

And even THAT'S stretching it a bit. Labour will have to truly collapse for the Libs to be the biggest party, and I'm pretty sure they won't go that much lower than 1983 levels (I reckon 27% minimum for Labour), and OTHER will probably get more than 6.5%. Essentially, what we're seeing is a guaranteed hung parliament...

Yet another example of how ridiculous our electoral system is. The Lib Dems can get almost 40% of the vote and still be some way short of a majority. Labour got just over 35% at the last election and a majority of 66.

 

In the interests of balance I should add that the Lib Dem vote only needs to go up a few points from your figures and the number of seats increases very fast. But that just makes the system seem even more laughable.

A potentially catastrophic gaffe from Gordon Brown this morning, a day before the last Prime-ministerial Debate; if Cameron plays this to his advantage, this could be the turning point of the campaign leading to a Conservative majority.

The women WAS bigoted - but still, we can definitely say bye to Brown now, lol.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/ele...010/8649012.stm

 

From BBC News:

 

Gordon Brown has apologised after being caught on microphone describing a voter he had just spoken to in Rochdale as a "bigoted woman".

 

Sixty-five-year-old Gillian Duffy had challenged Mr Brown on a number of issues including immigration and crime.

 

As he got into his car, he was still wearing a broadcast microphone and was heard to say "that was a disaster".

 

Mr Brown later phoned Mrs Duffy to apologise after the tape was played to him during a BBC Radio 2 interview.

 

After listening to the recording, with his forehead resting on his hand, he said: "I do apologise if I've said anything that has been hurtful."

 

The comments were made after the conversation with Mrs Duffy which ended with him complimenting her and her family.

 

As he went to get into his car, Mr Brown told her: "Very nice to meet you, very nice to meet you."

 

But off camera, and not realising he still had a Sky News microphone pinned to his shirt, he was heard to tell an aide: "That was a disaster - they should never have put me with that woman. Whose idea was that? It's just ridiculous..."

 

Asked what she had said, he is heard to reply: "Ugh everything! She's just a sort of bigoted woman that said she used to be Labour. I mean it's just ridiculous. I don't know why Sue brought her up towards me."

 

Mrs Duffy said after hearing of Mr Brown's comments: "I'm very upset. He's an educated person. Why has he come out with words like that?

 

"He's supposed to be leading the country and he's calling an ordinary woman who's come up and asked questions that most people would ask him... It's going to be tax, tax, tax for another 20 years to get out of this national debt, and he's calling me a bigot."

 

Mrs Duffy, a widow who has a daughter and two grandchildren, said she used to work with disabled children for Rochdale council before she retired.

 

She had earlier told reporters she was a lifelong Labour voter and described Mr Brown as being "very nice".

 

BBC political editor Nick Robinson said it was a disaster for the prime minister because it showed the gap between his public face and private face.

 

"For those of us who have known Gordon Brown for many years, what we have seen is no huge surprise. He has got better and better at handling himself in public, but quite often he flares up in private, expresses frustration," he said.

 

Nick Robinson added that the irony was that if his comments had not been picked up, it would have been a lively election exchange which would have been seen to do him credit.

 

Speaking on Radio 2's Jeremy Vine show, Mr Brown said: "Of course I apologise if I've said anything that's been offensive and I would never put myself in a position where I would want to say anything like that about a woman I'd met.

 

"I blame myself for what is done, but you've got to remember that this was me being helpful to the broadcasters, with my microphone on, rushing into the car because I had to get to another appointment and they have chosen to play my private conversation. These things can happen, I apologise profusely to the lady concerned."

 

Mr Brown later telephoned Mrs Duffy to personally apologise for the comments, telling her he was very sorry and said she "is a good woman".

 

When asked did this in any way make up for the comments she said "no - absolutely not".

 

'Resilience'

 

A spokesman for the prime minister said: "Mr Brown has apologised to Mrs Duffy personally by phone. He does not think that she is bigoted. He was letting off steam in the car after a difficult conversation.

 

"But this is exactly the sort of conversation that is important in an election campaign and which he will continue to have with voters."

 

The Conservatives said Mr Brown's comments spoke for themselves.

 

Shadow chancellor George Osborne said: "That's the thing about general elections, they do reveal the truth about people."

 

Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg said: "You should always try to answer the questions as best you can. He has been recorded saying what he has said and will have to answer for that."

 

Business Secretary Lord Mandelson said Mr Brown was "mortified" over the hurt he had caused Mrs Duffy.

 

He told the BBC: "It is very unfortunate that this remark that he didn't believe got picked up. But he should be judged on how he responded. And that's why he apologised immediately."

 

Chancellor Alistair Darling said Mr Brown's apology was profuse and he was well aware he should not have made the comments.

 

"The election campaign will be decided not just on individuals but what the party stands for. There are big issues at stake. Gordon is a man of considerable strength, considerable resilience and considerable substance," he said.

 

"I hope people will judge him in the round. The fact we are coming out of this recession is down to him in no small part."

 

This could be an enormous mistake by Gordon Brown, the woman was a lifetime Labour supporter, she wasn't representing any other party. All her questions were perfectly normal and tame if you ask me, there is no excuse for calling her a bigot.

oh dear..... what a pratt!

He's in her house apologising right now - live feed on the news channels. All abit surreal!

He shouldn't have said it but he was right tbh. You should have taken Rupert's mic off Gordon.

He shouldn't have said it but he was right tbh. You should have taken Rupert's mic off Gordon.

 

I quite agree. It wasn't the simple immigration question she askes it was her comments about Eastern Europeans flocking into the country.

 

If Nick Griffin had made her comment there would be no discussion.

 

Sky News must have been bloody thrilled. Kay Burley foaming at the mouth.

It's so unfair. Gordon Brown has the worst luck ever. :( That woman is a bigot. She was all in his face and that face is not a pretty sight at all. :lol: Go Gordon! :cheer:

Edited April 28, 201015 yr by TactiX

Sky News must have been bloody thrilled. Kay Burley foaming at the mouth.

 

Too right, you could tell she was trying desperately not to break into a massive beam this afternoon.

 

Indeed, I think the worst thing Gordon could have done is retract his 'statement' and start fawning. The woman probably was a complete bigot and in that case it would have been a great, noble gesture from him to stand by it. It's turned into an episode of The Thick Of It now.

He shouldn't have said it but he was right tbh. You should have taken Rupert's mic off Gordon.

 

I was thinking that! In fact ... he probably had switched it to 'off' but the Sky people probably reversed the wires! :lol:

 

Poor Gordon!

 

Norma

I do feel for him in a sense. A lot of people seem to be moaning that he said what he did behind her back but imagine the furore if he'd told her that to her face! It's just tough luck his mic was on. That said she didn't seem especially more bigoted than half of all people in her age range to be frank.

 

Either way he's utterly done for now.

I do feel for him in a sense. A lot of people seem to be moaning that he said what he did behind her back but imagine the furore if he'd told her that to her face! It's just tough luck his mic was on. That said she didn't seem especially more bigoted than half of all people in her age range to be frank.

 

Either way he's utterly done for now.

 

I get the feeling that he doesn't actually want to be PM any more anyway. He looks tired and pissed off with the whole thing. It is so annoying though that this has paved the way for slimeball Cameron to sail into number 10.

 

Jark - are you posting on the Big Brother site? I've just seen your name!

 

Norma

I can't believe people are defending him? :o

 

She didn't say anything rude or offensive to him, quite the contrary! I'm totally shocked and disgusted.

Jark - are you posting on the Big Brother site? I've just seen your name!

I am most certainly not! Tell that imposter they're a cheeky shit!

I can't believe people are defending him? :o

 

She didn't say anything rude or offensive to him, quite the contrary! I'm totally shocked and disgusted.

 

I completely agree. Today has proven in case you did not realise it previously, that Gordon Brown is not a very nice person. Period.

 

A shame because had they had another leader (and definitely if Alan Johnson was their leader) I would have seriously considered voting Labour as I had done with my X in the previous four General Elections.

 

But hey if Gordon Brown wants to alienate his core voters at the heartland of the North England that is up to him.

 

Still I wonder what Armando Iannucci (The Thick Of It co-writer and producer) thought of it:

http://twitter.com/aiannucci

 

:rofl:

I get the feeling that he doesn't actually want to be PM any more anyway. He looks tired and pissed off with the whole thing. It is so annoying though that this has paved the way for slimeball Cameron to sail into number 10.

 

Jark - are you posting on the Big Brother site? I've just seen your name!

 

Norma

 

It really doesn't make sense that people would switch to the Tories over this. The party who had to sack a candidate for saying homosexuals were "not normal". The party whose shadow Home Secretary has been invisible in the campaign after saying B&B owners should be able to turn away gay couples. The party whose own leader made such a mess of an interview with Gay Times that he had to ask for the cameras to be turned off.

 

If Cameron had made such a remark we can be sure that any criticism would be described by the Tory press as "political correctness gone mad". That's not to defend his remarks. It's just an illustration of how two-faced the press is.

It really doesn't make sense that people would switch to the Tories over this. The party who had to sack a candidate for saying homosexuals were "not normal". The party whose shadow Home Secretary has been invisible in the campaign after saying B&B owners should be able to turn away gay couples. The party whose own leader made such a mess of an interview with Gay Times that he had to ask for the cameras to be turned off.

 

If Cameron had made such a remark we can be sure that any criticism would be described by the Tory press as "political correctness gone mad". That's not to defend his remarks. It's just an illustration of how two-faced the press is.

 

Exactly.

 

And lets not even pretend that Cameron has come away from some inner-city community centre and not made comments. Just a shame he hasn't been caught of course. Still if Sky had such audio they still wouldn't release it anyway. :rolleyes: