Latest marginals poll for the Telegraph give Tories a 12 point lead and an overall majority.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...oll-shows.html

 

The poll by Crosby/Textor was carried out in 100 marginal seats; 80 held by Labour and 20 by the Liberal Democrats.

 

43 per cent of voters questioned said they would vote Conservative, 31 per cent Labour and 20 Lib Dem.

 

Labour have dropped five points since the 2005 election in these seats, while the Tories have gained seven points, the poll showed.

 

Sorry to burst your balloon Chris but.......;)

 

 

 

 

Jobs and Welfare

Getting Britain Working

 

Our big bold plan to Get Britain Working will tackle Labour's jobs crisis, creating hundreds of thousands of new opportunities to help people move from unemployment back into work.

 

Central to our plan to Get Britain Working is The Work Programme - simplifying Labour's numerous and piecemeal programmes into one single back-to-work programme for everyone who is unemployed, including the 2.6 million people claiming Incapacity Benefits currently excluded by Labour's plans. Support will be provided based on an individual's needs rather than the benefit that they are claiming.

 

http://www.conservatives.com/Policy/Where_...nd_Welfare.aspx

Latest marginals poll for the Telegraph give Tories a 12 point lead and an overall majority.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...oll-shows.html

 

The poll by Crosby/Textor was carried out in 100 marginal seats; 80 held by Labour and 20 by the Liberal Democrats.

 

43 per cent of voters questioned said they would vote Conservative, 31 per cent Labour and 20 Lib Dem.

 

Labour have dropped five points since the 2005 election in these seats, while the Tories have gained seven points, the poll showed.

 

Chris - I can't wait to see your posts in 12 months time ... after the Tories have had nearly a year in power. Somehow I don't think the 'thumbs up' icon will be attached to them.

 

Norma

^ Yet another sign that the Tories don't have a clue what the hell they're doing. They've cited moving people off Incapacity Benefit as one of their key ways of funding the money needed to prevent a National Insurance rise, but it simply doesn't make sense. There aren't enough jobs to give to everyone who is currently considered healthy, so how do they think there's suddenly going to be 2.5 million jobs to cover those people on IB? Those people will simply be moved to unemployment benefit, so it won't save the State any money.

Chris - I can't wait to see your posts in 12 months time ... after the Tories have had nearly a year in power. Somehow I don't think the 'thumbs up' icon will be attached to them.

 

Norma

 

I doubt he will have the energy to post at all tbh in a years time when Cameron has him out picking litter 8 hrs a day ;)

And before you give your stuck-record response of 'I'll go to the European courts to stop him!' (:rolleyes:), your defence of being too depressed to pick litter/actually be of USE to society won't stand in the face of the evidence when they ask you what you do with your time. I can just hear the judge now... 'Oh, you go on loads of forums and get abused for your views? Then I'm pretty sure you can manage basic community service...'

Has anybody else noticed how polls for the Telegraph/Mail/Express seem to predict a Tory majority and those for The Guardian/Mirror/Independent have the Tory lead as being quite narrow?

 

This all makes me far more inclined to trust today's Populus, which is for the Tory-leaning Times and has 36/33/21...http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7096632.ece

Latest marginals poll for the Telegraph give Tories a 12 point lead and an overall majority.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...oll-shows.html

 

The poll by Crosby/Textor was carried out in 100 marginal seats; 80 held by Labour and 20 by the Liberal Democrats.

 

43 per cent of voters questioned said they would vote Conservative, 31 per cent Labour and 20 Lib Dem.

 

Labour have dropped five points since the 2005 election in these seats, while the Tories have gained seven points, the poll showed.

Wrong. That shows a 6% swing in the marginal seats. That would give them 75 gains from Labour. Even if they also took all the Lib Dem and Nationalist seats requiring a swing from the incumbent of 6% or lower (including those where they start third) that gives them 111 gains which leaves them just short of a majority.

And before you give your stuck-record response of 'I'll go to the European courts to stop him!' (:rolleyes:), your defence of being too depressed to pick litter/actually be of USE to society won't stand in the face of the evidence when they ask you what you do with your time. I can just hear the judge now... 'Oh, you go on loads of forums and get abused for your views? Then I'm pretty sure you can manage basic community service...'

 

The European Court of Human Rights WOULD side with the person who was depressed. Contrary to what some people on here might think, clinical depression is a legitimate medical illness, and it would be a violation of human rights to force someone who has been diagnosed with it to force them to work, when medical experts have said someone depressed does not have the confidence and/or energy to work. Cameron knows this full well and he's talking out of his ass when he talks about moving people off IB.

Spot on Danny. That's what a benefits forum told me today. I said that I'm so worried about my benefits being stopped that it's making me ill and even more depreseed. They told me not to worry as did my GP yesterday.

Edited April 14, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

Spot on Danny. That's what a benefits forum told me today. I

 

See, that is proof that you are milking the system.

 

You are perfectly capable of doing work, you are just lazy that's all.

 

You spend most of your day at a PC what on earth is so difficult for you to do an IT or office type job at the same time ?

 

Are you seriously telling me that the abuse you get on all the forums doesn't affect you but the idea of typing some number into MS Excel would kill you ?

 

You are a professional sponger playing the system

See, that is proof that you are milking the system.

 

You are perfectly capable of doing work, you are just lazy that's all.

 

You spend most of your day at a PC what on earth is so difficult for you to do an IT or office type job at the same time ?

 

Are you seriously telling me that the abuse you get on all the forums doesn't affect you but the idea of typing some number into MS Excel would kill you ?

 

You are a professional sponger playing the system

Only Chris could score such a spectacular own goal :lol:

Only Chris could score such a spectacular own goal :lol:

 

Exactly

 

This pic sums up Chris perfectly

 

http://static.open.salon.com/files/leech1234463201.jpg

Only Chris could score such a spectacular own goal :lol:

 

 

What own goal? :rolleyes: I told my GP yesterday that I'm worried about all these benefit reforms and that anyway I'll just kill myself if they leave me penniless and he told me not to worry as that won't happen. He said a GP's word counts for a lot. ;)

Edited April 14, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

See, that is proof that you are milking the system.

 

You are perfectly capable of doing work, you are just lazy that's all.

 

You spend most of your day at a PC what on earth is so difficult for you to do an IT or office type job at the same time ?

 

Are you seriously telling me that the abuse you get on all the forums doesn't affect you but the idea of typing some number into MS Excel would kill you ?

 

You are a professional sponger playing the system

 

This shows a complete lack of understanding of depression. One of the main issues is that someone with depression usually wouldn't have the confidence to do a job, when they've had expectations placed on them. Concentration and focus is usually a big problem too.

According to the number cruncher on the BBC website, assuming the Lib Dems get around or just below 20%, the Conservatives need a lead of over 1% just the stop a Labour majority. That doesn't sound too threatening, since they'd need to drop around 5% from now until then for that to happen.

 

BUT, the Tories need a poll lead of 6% just to get more seats in a hung parliament than Labour. That could be very tight indeed.

 

For an overall majority, they need a poll lead of around 10% at the least. Even then that's a single figure majority which is practically useless. And I'm still confident even if the TV debates don't make too much of a swing either way, election day will slightly favour Brown. As far as I'm concerned, Cameron needs to be basically spotless from now until then to have any chance at all of an overall majority.

 

 

 

 

According to the number cruncher on the BBC website, assuming the Lib Dems get around or just below 20%, the Conservatives need a lead of over 1% just the stop a Labour majority. That doesn't sound too threatening, since they'd need to drop around 5% from now until then for that to happen.

 

BUT, the Tories need a poll lead of 6% just to get more seats in a hung parliament than Labour. That could be very tight indeed.

 

For an overall majority, they need a poll lead of around 10% at the least. Even then that's a single figure majority which is practically useless. And I'm still confident even if the TV debates don't make too much of a swing either way, election day will slightly favour Brown. As far as I'm concerned, Cameron needs to be basically spotless from now until then to have any chance at all of an overall majority.

 

 

Good post but let's say the polls are the same on May 5th then I think election day will favour the Tories. People will decide to give them a chance and punish Labour.

Edited April 14, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew

For an overall majority, they need a poll lead of around 10% at the least. Even then that's a single figure majority which is practically useless. And I'm still confident even if the TV debates don't make too much of a swing either way, election day will slightly favour Brown. As far as I'm concerned, Cameron needs to be basically spotless from now until then to have any chance at all of an overall majority.

 

I'm thinking Clegg is going to be the big beneficiary of the debates. Which would mean they could stop the Tories taking some of their seats in the south-west, making their job of winning a majority even harder.

I'm thinking Clegg is going to be the big beneficiary of the debates. Which would mean they could stop the Tories taking some of their seats in the south-west, making their job of winning a majority even harder.

 

When it comes to a hung parliament any Lib Dem seat is worth its weight in gold for Labour, even if Clegg is a bit of a Thatcherite.

This shows a complete lack of understanding of depression. One of the main issues is that someone with depression usually wouldn't have the confidence to do a job, when they've had expectations placed on them. Concentration and focus is usually a big problem too.

 

I have never had depression but both Russ and Scott work with people with depression and they have been even more critical of Chris on BJ than I have and they have far more insight into depression than I do.

 

I am not a doctor but surely someone with depression would find non stop internet abuse of them hard to take and would probably be tipped over the edge (Chris is even more disliked on other forums than on here) whereas Chris gets off on it, loves it.

 

 

I have never had depression but both Russ and Scott work with people with depression and they have been even more critical of Chris on BJ than I have and they have far more insight into depression than I do.

 

But depression isn't something that you simply either have or don't have - there's different levels of it. Those people who work with Russ and Scott are relatively fortunate if they're able to work, but there are people with more serious depression who just don't have the coping resources to cope with a job.