EW, anything where the Tories are gaining makes me sick. Don't people read the newspapers, see the news? Can't they see the mess we are in and they still want to vote for them bast*rds!

What is even more ridiculous is that the Lib Dems - who, unlike Labour and the Tories - have not sucked up to Murdoch are not gaining at all from this. Part of that is undoubtedly down to the BBC and others working on the basis that there is a government (Tory) view and an opposition (Labour) view. Shirley Williams on Question Time in Thursday made it perfectly clear that that is not the case. If it is true that Nick Clegg made it clear that he had - at the very least - strong reservations about appointing Coulson at the time, somebody needs to make sure that people know about it.

EW, anything where the Tories are gaining makes me sick. Don't people read the newspapers, see the news? Can't they see the mess we are in and they still want to vote for them bast*rds!

Where on earth are the Tories gaining? They've been going down in the polls - they're currently polling about 2% below the percentage of the vote they got last year.

Where on earth are the Tories gaining? They've been going down in the polls - they're currently polling about 2% below the percentage of the vote they got last year.

 

Just 2%? I really do worry for the voters of this country.

Just 2%? I really do worry for the voters of this country.

Well one presumes that the vast majority of the 37% who voted Tory have gotten all they were after from a Tory government, if not more, so I don't see why they'd have had any huge losses in support. And 2% does translate to about a million from the electorate...

Lib Dems were always going to fare unfairly bad, but this Coalition has been a nightmare, despite LD attempts, I don't see them hitting 10% in 2015 bar a miracle.

 

Ed has been strong in the last week against Murdoch and 44% is a good show of this. He hasn't done that well IMO gauging Labour opinion on some issues but definitely spot on here. Conservatives down from 36% in 2010 is a shock to me, very pleased, after just 1 year.

 

Could fall lower if Labour target Law and Order, Murdoch and Public Services - the big issues right now really, Miliband must be stronger on the latter - I agree with him, but most Labour does not - but maybe this makes him different from the rest, an alternative perhaps.

 

Tony Blair to John Major, 1995 PMQ:

''There is a big difference Mr. Speaker, I lead my party, he follows his''

I don't know where you're getting the idea that most of Labour disagrees with Miliband on public service provision from. They disagree on him not backing the strikes over pensions, but he still supports the prevailing Labour view. He just doesn't think it tactically the best decision to strike over it.

I realise this hasn't been used in a year but then surely it's time for an update. The Tories haven't had a single poll lead since March and their only period of more than a couple of days in the last year was after Cameron vetoed the Eurozone treaty.

 

At the end of June:

 

Labour 43%

Tories 34%

Lib Dems 9%

Others 14%

 

 

Labour - ruins the country

Conservatives - try to fix the country so Labour can ruin it again

Lib dems - run around being a bunch of fannies

 

Not a lot of choice out there :(

Please, go into more detail.

Lib dems - run around being a bunch of fannies

 

What's wrong with being a member of Teenage Fanclub??

The thing that gets me about the Tories (well - to be honest - Cameron) is that, as bad as Tony Blair was (and personally I couldn't stand the bloke) at least after a couple of years in the post - at least he had the decency to look haggard! Cameron just looks fat!

Edited October 11, 201212 yr by Kath

Labour - ruins the country

Conservatives - try to fix the country so Labour can ruin it again

Lib dems - run around being a bunch of fannies

 

Not a lot of choice out there :(

 

Come up to the north and tell me the Tories improve this country!

 

Labour to be re-elected now, please.

According to Political Betting, Labour have an 8% lead in the latest poll published by every major pollster. YouGov had a 42% for them yesterday, the highest from any pollster in more than 6 months (though they've slipped back to 39% today so it might have been a slight rogue).

 

More pleasingly, Ed Miliband is ahead of Cameron in most pollsters' personal approval ratings (though not on Best Prime Minister ratings), and maybe most telling of all, people now say "the cost of living" is a more important issue than "the economy".

 

I have to say, much as I think Ed wasted most of his first 3 years as leader, he's done a really good job since the late summer. The most pleasing thing is he's got this turnaround by actually playing "offence", rather than just benefitting from the government's unpopularity like in most periods where Labour have had big poll leads the last few years.

According to Political Betting, Labour have an 8% lead in the latest poll published by every major pollster. YouGov had a 42% for them yesterday, the highest from any pollster in more than 6 months (though they've slipped back to 39% today so it might have been a slight rogue).

 

More pleasingly, Ed Miliband is ahead of Cameron in most pollsters' personal approval ratings (though not on Best Prime Minister ratings), and maybe most telling of all, people now say "the cost of living" is a more important issue than "the economy".

 

I have to say, much as I think Ed wasted most of his first 3 years as leader, he's done a really good job since the late summer. The most pleasing thing is he's got this turnaround by actually playing "offence", rather than just benefitting from the government's unpopularity like in most periods where Labour have had big poll leads the last few years.

 

8% at this stage is very worrying for Ed

 

Cameron had double that in the same period before the 2010 election and didn't get a majority

 

With the economy fast improving, unemployment dropping like a stone, house prices making homeowners feel better the only way is down for labour

 

There are rumours at work we are going to get a 4% pay rise next year, this year we got 1.4%, so with business booming in the UK workers can expect pay rises next year substantially higher than this year which will help the cost of living

 

Add into that the fact that the incumbent government always gets a bounce around election time i think it is safe to say Ed will not be our next PM, not in a majority government anyways

 

I would say the most likely order of scenarios is

 

1) tory majority

2) hung parliament with DC partnering with Lib Dems

3) hung parliament with Ed partnering with Lib Dems

4) labour majority

 

I'd swap 2 and 3 and put them all above a Tory majority in order of likelihood. The likelihood of the Tories losing no seats to Labour and making more than 20 gains from the Lib Dems is low, and no matter how good things get I think it's really unlikely Ed will lose m/any seats to the Tories given we're working from a drastic low in a lot of the marginals we hold.

Edited November 14, 201311 yr by Cassandra

Add into that the fact that the incumbent government always gets a bounce around election time

 

Are you still clinging to this utter myth even though a couple of us showed you a while back that the incumbent government DIDN'T get a boost at any of the last THREE elections? :lol:

 

The official economy is probably going to be growing strongly all the way til the next election, but again, that poll I showed you about people considering the cost of living more important than the official GDP stats should be worrying... and another poll I just saw has only 11% of people saying they feel like there's a "real" economic recovery going on in their own lives. Frankly, a lot of people are so distrustful of anything that's reported these days, I bet a lot of people think the government is just completely making up the stats showing the economy is growing (even though they'd be wrong), and even of those who do believe the stats are genuine, it's just too easy for Labour to say all the rewards of the recovery are going to the wealthiest.

I'd swap 2 and 3 and put them both above a Tory majority in order of likelihood.

 

I don't detect any real lib dem enthusiasm for labour

 

Only 2 lib dem mp's voted in favour of labour's proposal to scrap the bedroom tax

 

Clegg gave Ed a savaging today in the media

 

I think the lib dems would prefer a tory partnership

8% at this stage is very worrying for Ed

 

Cameron had double that in the same period before the 2010 election and didn't get a majority

 

With the economy fast improving, unemployment dropping like a stone, house prices making homeowners feel better the only way is down for labour

 

There are rumours at work we are going to get a 4% pay rise next year, this year we got 1.4%, so with business booming in the UK workers can expect pay rises next year substantially higher than this year which will help the cost of living

 

Add into that the fact that the incumbent government always gets a bounce around election time i think it is safe to say Ed will not be our next PM, not in a majority government anyways

 

I would say the most likely order of scenarios is

 

1) tory majority

2) hung parliament with DC partnering with Lib Dems

3) hung parliament with Ed partnering with Lib Dems

4) labour majority

Have you already forgotten what you were told a week or two ago? The average Tory lead in November 2008 was around 8.5%. By no stretch of the imagination is 8.5 double 8.

 

 

As ever you take one example and extrapolate to the entire population. Most employers currently expect another year or more of below inflation pay rises (except for those at the top of course ho will continue to get inflation busting increases).

 

The party in power does not always get a bounce around election time so your reasoning is nonsense.

 

I don't detect any real lib dem enthusiasm for labour

 

Only 2 lib dem mp's voted in favour of labour's proposal to scrap the bedroom tax

 

Clegg gave Ed a savaging today in the media

 

I think the lib dems would prefer a tory partnership

Because they're in government. A load of Lib Dems abstained on the bedroom tax vote - the grassroots and the backbenchers are still predominantly left wing, and what better way would they show they're an objective coalition party of government than by switching next time if circumstances allow?