Anecdotal evidence having spoken to friends / acquaintances / family who have bought property

 

House prices rise people can borrow off the equity, they feel comfortable to because house prices continue to go up

Not if they are low paid or out of work. They are also potentially causing problems for themselves if interest rates rise. That's partly what got us where we are today so it's not exactly a great idea to encourage a repeat.

 

As for "anecdotal evidence", that is utterly worthless unless you have hundreds of acquaintances with varying backgrounds etc.

Not if they are low paid or out of work. They are also potentially causing problems for themselves if interest rates rise. That's partly what got us where we are today so it's not exactly a great idea to encourage a repeat.

 

As for "anecdotal evidence", that is utterly worthless unless you have hundreds of acquaintances with varying backgrounds etc.

 

My sister for example and her husband, she is a deputy headmistress on a good salary and he has a reasonably well paid job in insurance

 

They bought their house a few years ago and have remortgaged recently to borrow money to have an extension and conservatory, they first had the idea a couple of years ago but put it off until they felt confident about the economy and that their house would continue to rise in price, of course i will get slammed for yet another 'i know someone who...' thing but i highly doubt they are alone

 

My supervisor has borrowed to get a loft conversion, a client a fitted iamspamamispamwhoamspam and the brother of a neighbour has borrowed loads to buy a villa in Fuerteventura, all of these in the last 3-4 months, i notice a trend

 

 

UKIP are the most establishment out of all the parties, the public do not realise that yet because they are caught up in the cult of Farage but come the sharp end, the general election, there will be a lot more scrutiny and UKIP will come unstuck imho

 

Farage is a public school educated investment banker who wants Lord Sugar and his cleaner to be paying tax at the same rate, cant get much more establishment than that

 

Just most of the public dont know that yet

 

*I* don't disagree with that, but that doesn't mean other people will. You need to understand that a lot of people don't care AT ALL about UKIP's policies, some people are voting for them simply as an incoherent, generic protest against the mainstream, the same way the Lib Dems used to pull in many of those types of voters, including voters who were anti-immigration and anti-Europe (they either didn't know or didn't care that the LDs were very pro-immigration and pro-Europe, because their reason for voting for them was simply to give a "two-fingered salute" to the mainstream rather than any specific policies).

Edited November 25, 201311 yr by Danny

Even the TORYgraph hates Help To Buy: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...ction-ploy.html

 

HTB is encouraging people to overstretch their finances at the bottom of the interest-rate cycle – the very worst time to do so. With money priced at a 320-year low, the only way is up. When that happens, monthly outgoings will rise, house prices will fall and those on the edge of solvency will go bankrupt. After the credit crunch, household debt in Britain fell from 170 per cent of annual income to 140 per cent. That trend is now reversing, as government “initiatives” lure punters into a debt trap. The Bank of England’s financial stability report points out that 20 per cent of home loans have been made to households that are left with less than £50 a week after housing costs and essential spending.

 

20% of home loans made to households with LESS than £50 a week spending money. Oh I bet they all feel so rich Craig.

*I* don't disagree with that, but that doesn't mean other people will. You need to understand that a lot of people don't care AT ALL about UKIP's policies, some people are voting for them simply as an incoherent, generic protest against the mainstream, the same way the Lib Dems used to pull in many of those types of voters, including voters who were anti-immigration and anti-Europe (they either didn't know or didn't care that the LDs were very pro-immigration and pro-Europe, because their reason for voting for them was simply to give a "two-fingered salute" to the mainstream rather than any specific policies).

 

I see your point definitely, but my gut feeling (may well be wrong of course) is that they will end up with about 8% on polling day (ie half of their current base drifting back to main parties)

Even the TORYgraph hates Help To Buy: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...ction-ploy.html

20% of home loans made to households with LESS than £50 a week spending money. Oh I bet they all feel so rich Craig.

 

They are looking at worst case scenarios

 

Mark Carney pretty much ruled out any interest rate rises for a long time to come

 

Plus people can take out fixed rate tracker mortgages

 

Those with £50 a week left over should not be applying in the first place

UKIP are the most establishment out of all the parties, the public do not realise that yet because they are caught up in the cult of Farage but come the sharp end, the general election, there will be a lot more scrutiny and UKIP will come unstuck imho

 

Farage is a public school educated investment banker who wants Lord Sugar and his cleaner to be paying tax at the same rate, cant get much more establishment than that

 

Just most of the public dont know that yet

Just like most people don't see your beloved Boris for what he is - an Eton educated former member of the Bullingdon Club whose only vision is of a blonde haired, overweight toff standing outside the door of No 10 waving to a crowd.

They are looking at worst case scenarios

 

Mark Carney pretty much ruled out any interest rate rises for a long time to come

 

Plus people can take out fixed rate tracker mortgages

 

Those with £50 a week left over should not be applying in the first place

No they shouldn't but the Bank Of England are reporting that, not only are they applying, they are being given mortgages. As I said earlier, this is one of the main reasons we are where we are. How can you have any confidence at all that this is not going to result in financial calamity for many households? It doesn't matter whose fault it is, the victims are likely to blame the government that got them into a mess in the first place.

No they shouldn't but the Bank Of England are reporting that, not only are they applying, they are being given mortgages. As I said earlier, this is one of the main reasons we are where we are. How can you have any confidence at all that this is not going to result in financial calamity for many households? It doesn't matter whose fault it is, the victims are likely to blame the government that got them into a mess in the first place.

 

The government can't micro manage who does and doesn't get mortgages though, it is entirely the stupidity of the banks and equally the stupidity of those taking on commitments they can clearly not afford

 

I would hope and trust the government won't get the blame in such circumstances, its difficult to see what they can do

The government can't micro manage who does and doesn't get mortgages though, it is entirely the stupidity of the banks and equally the stupidity of those taking on commitments they can clearly not afford

 

I would hope and trust the government won't get the blame in such circumstances, its difficult to see what they can do

History suggests that the government will be blamed. While they can't be held entirely responsible, they can also not be said to be entirely blameless. Osborne's scheme is utterly reckless and he deserves to take a lot of the blame when it all goes horribly wrong.

I see your point definitely, but my gut feeling (may well be wrong of course) is that they will end up with about 8% on polling day (ie half of their current base drifting back to main parties)

Which would still be a huge dent to the Tories, given UKIP at 3% at the last election. That's about 1-2 million votes you're talking about there, a large proportion of which would come from the Conservatives. And 16% isn't their 'base' at all - they rarely consistently go higher than 10-13% these days.

History suggests that the government will be blamed. While they can't be held entirely responsible, they can also not be said to be entirely blameless. Osborne's scheme is utterly reckless and he deserves to take a lot of the blame when it all goes horribly wrong.

 

The scheme itself, getting people away from throwing money down the black hole of renting, into owning something, is in itself a good idea IMHO

 

But it needs managing carefully, very carefully

Which would still be a huge dent to the Tories, given UKIP at 3% at the last election. That's about 1-2 million votes you're talking about there, a large proportion of which would come from the Conservatives. And 16% isn't their 'base' at all - they rarely consistently go higher than 10-13% these days.

 

Almost as many labour people support UKIP though so i think it will balance itself out, more tories support UKIP atm but they are gaining popularity with low paid working class people too

Almost as many labour people support UKIP though so i think it will balance itself out, more tories support UKIP atm but they are gaining popularity with low paid working class people too

Uh, no. Pretty much every YouGov poll going shows UKIP take about five times as much support from the Conservatives as Labour (generally averaging currently as taking ~14-16% of the Tory vote from 2010 - which is equivalent to about 5-6% of the overall 2010 turnout - and taking ~4-6% of the Labour vote from 2010, which is equivalent to about 1-1.5% of the overall 2010 turnout.)

Uh, no. Pretty much every YouGov poll going shows UKIP take about five times as much support from the Conservatives as Labour (generally averaging currently as taking ~14-16% of the Tory vote from 2010 - which is equivalent to about 5-6% of the overall 2010 turnout - and taking ~4-6% of the Labour vote from 2010, which is equivalent to about 1-1.5% of the overall 2010 turnout.)

 

When the Bulgarians and Romanians come next year and start getting jobs then more and more unskilled Brits will blame Europe and the government for the Romanians and Bulgarians 'nicking our jobs' and with Labour being pro EU the UKIP could well be a haven for such people

 

By the election i fully expect a near 50-50 split (ex Tory and ex Labour) in terms of UKIP support

The scheme itself, getting people away from throwing money down the black hole of renting, into owning something, is in itself a good idea IMHO

 

But it needs managing carefully, very carefully

Germany seems to have done pretty well with lower home ownership than in the UK. Ever since that dreadful woman came to power home ownership has been portrayed as something that everyone should aim for. The German experience shows that that is not necessarily true. Ownership should be seen as one of the methods of providing a home rather than some sort of get rich quick scheme.

When the Bulgarians and Romanians come next year and start getting jobs then more and more unskilled Brits will blame Europe and the government for the Romanians and Bulgarians 'nicking our jobs' and with Labour being pro EU the UKIP could well be a haven for such people

 

By the election i fully expect a near 50-50 split (ex Tory and ex Labour) in terms of UKIP support

And how many Romanians and Bulgarians do you think will want to come here?

When the Bulgarians and Romanians come next year and start getting jobs then more and more unskilled Brits will blame Europe and the government for the Romanians and Bulgarians 'nicking our jobs' and with Labour being pro EU the UKIP could well be a haven for such people

 

That's definitely a danger, which is why I hope the Labour leadership aren't so foolish as to start doing some cringeworthy "tough talk" on immigration next year. As I saw someone put it before: if you advertise a product (the "product" in this case being anti-immigration sentiment), you're only going draw attention to the market leader in that product. The Tories seem determined to blunder right into that trap with their Lynton Crosby strategy (note how Cameron's EU referendum pledge, far from "shooting UKIP's fox" as the Tory media commentators said it would, pushed UKIP higher in the polls as their flagship issue was pushed to the top of the news agenda).

Edited November 26, 201311 yr by Danny

When the Bulgarians and Romanians come next year and start getting jobs then more and more unskilled Brits will blame Europe and the government for the Romanians and Bulgarians 'nicking our jobs' and with Labour being pro EU the UKIP could well be a haven for such people

 

By the election i fully expect a near 50-50 split (ex Tory and ex Labour) in terms of UKIP support

People think there's too much immigration as it is. They aren't going to notice that many more foreigners coming in because it feels incredibly difficult to get jobs as it is. The very idea that that would be enough to change it from a current 85-15 split to a 50-50 one is absolutely ridiculous - do you really think that such a slow-motion change as immigration would lead to such a drastic change in the polls?

Germany seems to have done pretty well with lower home ownership than in the UK. Ever since that dreadful woman came to power home ownership has been portrayed as something that everyone should aim for. The German experience shows that that is not necessarily true. Ownership should be seen as one of the methods of providing a home rather than some sort of get rich quick scheme.

 

Maybe so but the buy to let landlords in Germany must be bathing in €100 notes while at the same time the renting German population are just throwing money away with nothing to show for it

 

They should embrace our home ownership model not the other way round