People should not over extend themselves but if they can afford to remortgage to treat themselves or renovate their property then they are helping the overall economy and helping to create jobs

 

The important thing right now is to create the market conditions to ensure a tory majority in 2015

This is basic economics here. If I need to remortgage then I can't afford otherwise I would use my savings or wages. remortgaging is increasing my debt to the bank. You're advocating fuelling a debt based boom which was labour's whole economic record in power.

And that is how people end up in negative equity. Also there are millions of people who did that last time and then when interest rates rose they found they could no longer afford the payments because the banks had conned them into thinking they were getting a cheap loan.

 

We can not build a recovery on credit, it will just lead to another bust that will once again threaten to collapse our banking system.

 

Last time I checked the best performing car manufacturing plant in the UK was actual the Nissan plant at Sunderland, which has been continuously praised as one of the best in the world. Renault and Nissan's CEO, Carlos Ghosn, has promised it'll close if the UK votes to leave the EU.

 

Carney has said that interest rates won't rise for a very long time, things can change of course but he gave the impression that things will be as they are for a good few years. Interest rates are incredibly low so even if they go up slightly they are going up from a very low starting point

 

I hope common sense prevails and Cameron gets the reforms of the EU and therefore we opt to stay in the EU

 

If we leave it would be economic suicide no matter what the DM and Express say

 

 

This is basic economics here. If I need to remortgage then I can't afford otherwise I would use my savings or wages. remortgaging is increasing my debt to the bank. You're advocating fuelling a debt based boom which was labour's whole economic record in power.

 

All governments can do is set market conditions, what consumers do is then their responsibility, it seems to be human nature to live on credit and debt, its a whole mindset that will probably never change

All governments can do is set market conditions, what consumers do is then their responsibility, it seems to be human nature to live on credit and debt, its a whole mindset that will probably never change

I don't fundamentally disagree with your points but a government which preached austerity and the value of living within its means is sending a message and setting market conditions no? Personal debt can't go on forever that's why busts happen and people go bankrupt etc. simply saying Hey Ho that's life is far from what any government has EVER said.

I don't fundamentally disagree with your points but a government which preached austerity and the value of living within its means is sending a message and setting market conditions no? Personal debt can't go on forever that's why busts happen and people go bankrupt etc. simply saying Hey Ho that's life is far from what any government has EVER said.

 

People have to take responsibility for their own actions though

 

Someone i have on Facebook has just taken out a wonga loan to get the new X Box, when he cant keep up with the payments it will be hard to have any sympathy for him, he didn't need an X Box it is not a life essential, he bought something he cant afford outright at ridiculous interest

 

Sadly there are a lot like him out there

Geordies would never vote for tories, I just don't see it

Exactly. But if you want the Tores to be making the kind of gains you're predicting, Middlesborough is a seat they have to win. Do you see now why we're all telling you your predictions are unrealistic?

Exactly. But if you want the Tores to be making the kind of gains you're predicting, Middlesborough is a seat they have to win. Do you see now why we're all telling you your predictions are unrealistic?

 

Its a city, we never do well in cities, a tory in Liverpool for example is as rare as rocking horse poo but we do well in areas like Wirral, likewise with Newcastle no one would vote for us but we will win Hexham and areas like that, same with Blackpool we would win nothing but go out a few miles to Lytham etc and its a sea of blue

 

There is little point in Crosby fighting in inner cities, any success will come in rural/urban areas of the north and midlands that we dont already hold

 

 

People have to take responsibility for their own actions though

 

Someone i have on Facebook has just taken out a wonga loan to get the new X Box, when he cant keep up with the payments it will be hard to have any sympathy for him, he didn't need an X Box it is not a life essential, he bought something he cant afford outright at ridiculous interest

 

Sadly there are a lot like him out there

Again I don't disagree but you're making a different point. my initial post was in reply to you saying that remortgaging made people feel richer and therefore house price increases made a difference. I made a point this was debt not actually making you richer. You wanted that debt because it fed the economy but that would only happen in the very Short term. Long term it lead to 2008

Its a city, we never do well in cities, a tory in Liverpool for example is as rare as rocking horse poo but we do well in areas like Wirral, likewise with Newcastle no one would vote for us but we will win Hexham and areas like that, same with Blackpool we would win nothing but go out a few miles to Lytham etc and its a sea of blue

 

There is little point in Crosby fighting in inner cities, any success will come in rural/urban areas of the north and midlands that we dont already hold

It's cute that you think your strategist is the one who'll decide swing seats.

 

 

I still don't understand the mathematics of how the Tories could possibly get a majority. Assuming that of Lib Dem seats, a third goes to both of the major parties (with them holding the other third) that puts them on the very cusp of a majority - and needing to gain Labour seats from a party that can't sink any lower.

I still don't understand the mathematics of how the Tories could possibly get a majority. Assuming that of Lib Dem seats, a third goes to both of the major parties (with them holding the other third) that puts them on the very cusp of a majority - and needing to gain Labour seats from a party that can't sink any lower.

 

I'm going to have to be the uncharacteristic in-house pessimist here, but I don't totally agree with this. There is potential for the Tories to pick up seats even with less votes in absolute numbers than last time, the pitifully low turnouts at all the local elections and byelections in recent years shows that. I do think it's a tad complacent to assume all of Labour's 2010 voters will definitely vote again for us next time - people at our local party admit they've encountered a lot of 2010 voters who've got even more disillusioned with politics in the last few years and have no plans on voting in 2015. I think things have improved a bit over the past few months now that Ed Miliband has FINALLY started to spell out what exactly the point of voting Labour is and what they're going to do for people (because, rather than credibility, it's definition that's been Labour's biggest problem - even a focus-group report from that Blairite thinktank came to the same conclusion), rather than just spouting empty slogans or platitudes like he spent most of the last 3 years doing, but I still don't really get the sense core Labour voters are super-enthusiastic, at all.

 

If turnout is above 60% next time, I agree the Tories almost certainly won't be getting a majority simply because there's just too many people who point-blank despise them and won't be voting for them no matter how good things get, but the worry is if it falls below that (which, come to think of it, is probably also another incentive for the Tories to not do the debates, since they were probably the only reason turnout rose against all expectations last time).

Edited December 7, 201311 yr by Danny

Its a city, we never do well in cities, a tory in Liverpool for example is as rare as rocking horse poo but we do well in areas like Wirral, likewise with Newcastle no one would vote for us but we will win Hexham and areas like that, same with Blackpool we would win nothing but go out a few miles to Lytham etc and its a sea of blue

 

There is little point in Crosby fighting in inner cities, any success will come in rural/urban areas of the north and midlands that we dont already hold

The point is that you don't HAVE many areas like that left to win. To get the kind of majority you're on about, you have to start taking places like Middlesborough that are city/built-up urban areas areas in the North and the Midlands that you're saying aren't the places that the Tories will win.

Mid-term disillusionment is one thing, polling day is another. I agree with what you say but seat-by-seat the only way the Tories will be able to take Labour seats is either through extreme apathy and the fact that their voters are more likely to show up than ours (although we'll have a big focus on getting the vote out in close seats so this shouldn't be a big problem) or if UKIP take slightly more votes from us than them to enable them to sneak it. That seems more conceivable given I'd imagine more natural Tories flirting with UKIP will come home in 2015 than the natural Labour voters will.

 

However, I'm wondering whether constituency parties will cotton onto this. I'd imagine most funds will be directed towards Lib Dem held seats and ones they won in 2010 and need to hold to have any hope.

People have to take responsibility for their own actions though

 

Someone i have on Facebook has just taken out a wonga loan to get the new X Box, when he cant keep up with the payments it will be hard to have any sympathy for him, he didn't need an X Box it is not a life essential, he bought something he cant afford outright at ridiculous interest

 

Sadly there are a lot like him out there

 

Of course they do. Doesn't happen in the perverse market conditions since 2007 though. Banks that should have gone bankrupt are in business thanks to the taxpayer and everyone that stupidly overextended on mortgages should have lost their houses and gone bankrupt. Instead they have chosen to hit the savers the responsible people and passed on the message that saving is a waste of time, just go into debt and you'll benefit from government support. Same with pensions, no guarantee you'll get one with slimy bankers lying about returns (fact: see the recent mega-fines) and everything else, so the incentive to bother isn't there, on the grounds that you will be comfortable for the last 15 or 20 years of your life, when you're too weary and declining in health from retiring at 70 to enjoy it...

 

The current housing bubble is just repeating what happened last time, and the government knows perfectly well that's what happening they're just going along with it for votes in the short term (the government have cancelled bank support for housing mortgages, Carney has backtracked on the "interest rates will go up when unemployment drops below 7%", and most observers can see no logical reason for the very minor improvement in the economy beyond people saving less). Which is what Labour did. Looks like we're buggered whichever party is in power, cos they are nearly all self-serving double-speak soundbite merchants. "We're doomed, we're doomed" as a cynical scotsman once said, and it's entirely the fault of politicians and bankers for allowing the situation to get so bad, and for not doing anything about it until all exploded in their rich, smarmy faces. The rich, of course, are still filthy rich. The poor, meanwhile, are dying on a personal tragedy basis each day, one only has to read local papers to hear one sad story after another.

 

People are often idiots. Politicians are supposed create laws to protect society from idiots and greedy tosspots, not to glorify idiocy and greed and act all surprised at the end result. Back in 2007/8 I quoted no recovery until 2015/6. Turns out I was hopelessly optimistic. More like 2020/21 at the very earliest before things improve a bit (according to the experts) and godknows how long before the debt is sorted....

 

 

 

 

We've been in debt as a country for most of the last century so it's hardly exclusive to financial crises. The more immediate issue is a deficit which will be impossiblr to bring down through public service cuts because it'll directly and indirectly lower tax revenue and leave us back where we started. One party has a slightly better grasp of this than the other.

One party has no grasp of that fact what so ever. They also happen to be the party (and hangers on) in Government....

One party has no grasp of that fact what so ever. They also happen to be the party (and hangers on) in Government....

 

The only things that will get the deficit down are :

 

1) Increased tax revenues

2) Heavy reductions in the welfare budget

 

Job creation, something we are doing very well atm at will help with 1 and make some progress in 2

 

If we heavily reduce the tax burden on the well paid this will increase tax revenues as fewer need to resort to tax avoidance

 

And if we heavily slash welfare this will get the budget down on welfare.

 

The welfare cap should be bought in at what a person on full time minimum wage would earn before tax, about £15,000, the cap is far too high still, bringing in measures like restricting child benefit to 1 child would reduce welfare too

 

Only the tories can rein in welfare and create jobs, labour would just write a blank cheque to serial baby breeders

Edited December 11, 201311 yr by Sandro Raniere

That is possibly the single most full of shit post I have ever read in Perspectives.

That is possibly the single most full of shit post I have ever read in Perspectives.

 

How :unsure:

 

1/3 of all government spending goes on welfare, it is the single biggest reason that the deficit is so stubbornly high

Fyi, the vast majority of the "welfare budget" is spent on pensions.

Edited December 11, 201311 yr by Danny