2.4% is NOWHERE NEAR a boom - especially when we're STILL below where we were in 2007. It's average growth - that's 0.6% growth a quarter. 4% growth's probably the threshold for a boom.

In any case Craig, stop citing growth forecasts as if they're Word of God. They're generally about as useful as a chocolate teapot if you look at most previous forecasts - there'll probably be alright growth, but it's a joke to pretend we can forecast growth to within a tenth of a percentage point for this time in twelve months.

In any case Craig, stop citing growth forecasts as if they're Word of God. They're generally about as useful as a chocolate teapot if you look at most previous forecasts - there'll probably be alright growth, but it's a joke to pretend we can forecast growth to within a tenth of a percentage point for this time in twelve months.

 

Its not the government that is making the forecasts though, it is the OBR an independent body with no political affiliations

 

They could be wrong yes, equally they could exceed 2.4% as the OBR heavily underestimated our growth this year

 

But strong growth will lead to bigger wage packets so the UK workforce could be feeling very good indeed when they get their first salary of the 2015 financial year days before general election

After todays Autumn Statement i revise my prediction upwards from a Tory majority of about 20 to one of 30-40 in 2015

Its not the government that is making the forecasts though, it is the OBR an independent body with no political affiliations

 

They could be wrong yes, equally they could exceed 2.4% as the OBR heavily underestimated our growth this year

 

But strong growth will lead to bigger wage packets so the UK workforce could be feeling very good indeed when they get their first salary of the 2015 financial year days before general election

I am aware. My point had nothing to do with any paranoid 'THE GOVERNMENT ARE FIDDLING THE FIGURES' crap - the OBR is absolutely useless for projections, full stop.

 

And again, I'm not really sure why you think the Conservatives are likely to start taking many seats that Labour held in 2010. That projection would have them taking about twenty off Labour. Do you really think Labour will be less popular in those seats than they were in 2010 and that UKIP won't be more popular than they were in 2010?

If growth next year is 2.4% then people will see the recovery with their own eyes and in more cases than not feel it in their pockets in early 2015

 

2.4% is impressive growth, almost a boom

 

Just seen that even the OBR (who you're apparently so impressed with) say wages won't start to rise until late 2015. Oops.

After todays Autumn Statement i revise my prediction upwards from a Tory majority of about 20 to one of 30-40 in 2015

 

I still genuinely don't understand why you tories think something that happens in the House of Commons would seriously have an impact on the election :lol: Do you really think people are going to be "impressed" just because George Osborne got his MPs to cheer louder than the Labour MPs did? That's what I don't understand about politicians and Westminster journalists - not only that they overestimate how much people will pay attention to things like this, they seem to have a really bizarre idea of how the people who DO hear about it would respond.

 

In fairness, Labour (and their media cheerleaders) are also bad for this, especially Ed Balls - he's completely wasted opportunity after opportunity over the years by constantly missing the forest for the trees, with his pure schadenfreude ("haha, the government are incompetent, they're missing their targets, losers, etc.") and expecting people to flock to Labour automatically even without him giving an alternative. Not to mention when the Guardian started crowing that Osborne's "credibility" was destroyed whenever he missed one of his deficit targets, when noone outside Westminster cared about the deficit targets in the first place.

 

I just hope the Labour leadership don't do their usual and buy into the Westminster nonsense that they've got an "economic credibility" problem again just because of this non-event in Parliament, and start scoring a series of own-goals by pissing off their own supporters just to impress Westminster hacks.

Edited December 5, 201311 yr by Danny

I am aware. My point had nothing to do with any paranoid 'THE GOVERNMENT ARE FIDDLING THE FIGURES' crap - the OBR is absolutely useless for projections, full stop.

 

And again, I'm not really sure why you think the Conservatives are likely to start taking many seats that Labour held in 2010. That projection would have them taking about twenty off Labour. Do you really think Labour will be less popular in those seats than they were in 2010 and that UKIP won't be more popular than they were in 2010?

 

Yes because homeowners would vote en masse for us due to rising prices, they are quids in

 

Crosby had said the entire election strategy is going to be based on fighting hard in 50 marginals

 

Winning 20 or more of those on the back of a fast growing economy in 2015 and especially rising house prices for house owners in those constituencies, makes winning 20 or so more than 2010 more than achieveable

Just seen that even the OBR (who you're apparently so impressed with) say wages won't start to rise until late 2015. Oops.

 

Inflation will be low, barely 2%

 

Employers feel buoyant atm and will feel even more so in a years time, pay rises starting April 2015 will outstrip the cost of living imho

I still genuinely don't understand why you tories think something that happens in the House of Commons would seriously have an impact on the election :lol: Do you really think people are going to be "impressed" just because George Osborne got his MPs to cheer louder than the Labour MPs did? That's what I don't understand about politicians and Westminster journalists - not only that they overestimate how much people will pay attention to things like this, they seem to have a really bizarre idea of how the people who DO hear about it would respond.

 

In fairness, Labour (and their media cheerleaders) are also bad for this, especially Ed Balls - he's completely wasted opportunity after opportunity over the years by constantly missing the forest for the trees, with his pure schadenfreude ("haha, the government are incompetent, they're missing their targets, losers, etc.") and expecting people to flock to Labour automatically even without him giving an alternative. Not to mention when the Guardian started crowing that Osborne's "credibility" was destroyed whenever he missed one of his deficit targets, when noone outside Westminster cared about the deficit targets in the first place.

 

I just hope the Labour leadership don't do their usual and buy into the Westminster nonsense that they've got an "economic credibility" problem again just because of this non-event in Parliament, and start scoring a series of own-goals by pissing off their own supporters just to impress Westminster hacks.

 

What happens now is pretty unimportant but between now and 2015 the only way is up for both GDP and house prices

 

Creating new homeowners is a masterstroke by Gideon as homeowners overwhelmingly vote tory according to polls, its almost a brilliant form of ethical gerrymandering

Edited December 5, 201311 yr by Sandro Raniere

two-pennorth. The OBR also say that the current blip upwards seems to have no logical reasoning to it: it's basically savers spending, and therefore the debt will climb, therefore things are not, as they say,only getting better....

 

The groans round the office amongst the under-50's when they heard they were going to work till 68/69/70 (at least) was probably not something cameron wants to hear, I would say. Bit of an own goal there, the mini-boom created artificially by the politically-motivated housing policy/mortgages may not be enough to get over people being pissed off at having to work longer and being lectured about saving when theyve a real chance of dropping dead before getting their pension.

 

happy days...

The groans round the office amongst the under-50's when they heard they were going to work till 68/69/70 (at least) was probably not something cameron wants to hear, I would say. Bit of an own goal there

 

Then with all due respect they are lazy, they work to live as opposed to live to work

 

Work and making money is the most important thing in life imho, apart from good health, if they are in good health they should just get on with it

 

Bernie Ecclestone is stilll working at 83, Jackie Stewart in his 70s, Murray Walker still goes to most F1 races at 90, the ones who are under 50 odd and moaning dont have a strong work ethic, i bet they take a sickie the day after england games or of the weather is great

 

It is right that people work longer before getting a pension, with advances in medicine and prosperity people are living longer and longer

 

20 years ago people would retire at 65 and typically be dead by 75, now people who are 65 can expect to live to 80 and beyond due to improved medicine

Edited December 5, 201311 yr by Sandro Raniere

I see more utter horseshit about house prices yet again. For the last bloody time craig, SHUT THE FUCK UP. Literally nobody in the UK give 2 flying shits about how much a house costs unless they are selling it. Prices are still miles below what they were, millions still have negative equity and the rest have debt mountains that could put everest into a shadow.

 

You've been repeatedly told that rising house prices doesn't make anyone feel richer. It's a made up number that has absolutely no impact on household budgets. The only things that have an impact on 'how rich people feel' is inflation and wages. Inflation is far outstripping wages to the point that people across this country have had over a 15% reduction in their 'real' wage since the recession started. That means £1 in some's wage packet in 2008 now has the value of 85p.

 

 

I would love to know where you get all your evidence to back up your relentless claims of house prices make people feel richer, the fact that inflation will be 2% next year (Not even close), or that the recovery is being felt outside of the M25. I WANT RECEIPTS. No daily mail, no right-wing horse shit, straight up statistics from unbiased sources. Produce them, and fine you can w*** on about house prices all you want, don't and every single time you mention those two bloody words I will increase your warning level by 30% (10% for House and 10% for prices and 10% for rising.)

 

Deal?

Yes because homeowners would vote en masse for us due to rising prices, they are quids in

 

Crosby had said the entire election strategy is going to be based on fighting hard in 50 marginals

 

Winning 20 or more of those on the back of a fast growing economy in 2015 and especially rising house prices for house owners in those constituencies, makes winning 20 or so more than 2010 more than achieveable

Firstly, cast your mind back to 2010. A Labour government that got 29%, lower than almost all projections except your own, and you expect us to lose more seats?

 

It's also hilarious that you think you're the only ones targeting marginals. A completely centralised campaign is about as efficient as running a car on farts, and the Tories are notoriously useless at actually doing some campaign work in local areas and would rather preach to the converted by feeding scaremongering immigration headlines to the Mail (which, as Danny says, stands to benefit UKIP more anyway).

 

And a minor point - winning 20 more seats would give you a majority of 2, not 30-40.

What got me today was this nonsense about us being the fastest growing major economy or whatever that PR crap was. Off the top of my head the economies that are bigger than us and growing faster are:

 

China and the USA. (worlds #1 and 2)

 

 

Brazil (7th) is also growing at a rapid rate.

 

The word 'western' was mentioned so not even looking outside our bloody empire (the English speaking, white majority bits - Just for Craig) Canada (11th largest in world) and Australia (12th) are growing better than we are. Canada at 2% this year and Australia at 2.6% (although they missed their target of 2.7%, bloody Abbott's broken it already).

 

We're barely level pegging with Germany and I haven't checked but I'd be surprised if we were growing faster than Scandinavia.

I see more utter horseshit about house prices yet again. For the last bloody time craig, SHUT THE FUCK UP. Literally nobody in the UK give 2 flying shits about how much a house costs unless they are selling it. Prices are still miles below what they were, millions still have negative equity and the rest have debt mountains that could put everest into a shadow.

 

You've been repeatedly told that rising house prices doesn't make anyone feel richer. It's a made up number that has absolutely no impact on household budgets. The only things that have an impact on 'how rich people feel' is inflation and wages. Inflation is far outstripping wages to the point that people across this country have had over a 15% reduction in their 'real' wage since the recession started. That means £1 in some's wage packet in 2008 now has the value of 85p.

I would love to know where you get all your evidence to back up your relentless claims of house prices make people feel richer, the fact that inflation will be 2% next year (Not even close), or that the recovery is being felt outside of the M25. I WANT RECEIPTS. No daily mail, no right-wing horse shit, straight up statistics from unbiased sources. Produce them, and fine you can w*** on about house prices all you want, don't and every single time you mention those two bloody words I will increase your warning level by 30% (10% for House and 10% for prices and 10% for rising.)

 

Deal?

 

If they are so unimportant why is there such a mad rush to get on the ladder? if they are such a burden and debt mountain why is there such demand particularly among first time buyers? why do the media constantly harp on about them? simple reason being people think it is a licence to print money

 

Demand among people who were previously renting or living with parents has rocketed under Osborne's scheme, only today 2 new banks came on board, they would not do that unless there was demand among first time buyers, first time buyers think they are hopping on board a gravy train, otherwise they would just carry on giving a landlord money every month

 

Lets go back 30 years too, what was Maggie's flagship policy? The one widely credited with winning seats in working class areas in 83 and 87, letting council tenants buy their own homes, now why would these council tenants take on these commitments? why not just live out their lives giving the council money? simple reason was that they thought it free money, joining a gravy train

 

Firstly, cast your mind back to 2010. A Labour government that got 29%, lower than almost all projections except your own, and you expect us to lose more seats?

 

It's also hilarious that you think you're the only ones targeting marginals. A completely centralised campaign is about as efficient as running a car on farts, and the Tories are notoriously useless at actually doing some campaign work in local areas and would rather preach to the converted by feeding scaremongering immigration headlines to the Mail (which, as Danny says, stands to benefit UKIP more anyway).

 

And a minor point - winning 20 more seats would give you a majority of 2, not 30-40.

 

Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina are widely thought of as the worlds best 2 election strategists, Crosby won 4 elections for John Howard and Messina got Obama in last year, many many people thought Romney would win the presidency but Messina turned that around and got Obama another 4 years

 

Those 2 are heading out campaign, they know what they are doing

I see no receipts, just right-wing horse shit. You entirely avoided my point there craig.

 

Either find me evidence to back up your ridiculous claims or can it. And avoid that evil woman, this isn't the 80's. The situations are so completely different it's pointless me even trying to point out how different they are because anyone with a brain cell can see it.

 

I see you also haven't taken me up on my deal. Which would suggest you have no evidence and are just spraying the forum with verbal diarrhoea.

If they are so unimportant why is there such a mad rush to get on the ladder? if they are such a burden and debt mountain why is there such demand particularly among first time buyers? why do the media constantly harp on about them? simple reason being people think it is a licence to print money

 

Maybe because rent is so ludicrously high? It would cost £380 p/m to rent a one bed flat near me in a half-decent (by no means good) area near me, that's more than any of my friends who own houses pay on mortgage payments.

 

When I buy a house it's because I want somewhere to live and have something that's mine and can make my own rather than give money to some rich landlord, I generally won't care whether the price goes up, down or stays static, unless it's a massive difference.

 

If I buy a house for £100k why is it good if in 5 years time the price has gone up 20%? If I want to move to a bigger house or better area the chances are the price of the house I'm going to be moving into will also be around 20% higher, so how on earth does that make me better off than if the values were still the same?

Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina are widely thought of as the worlds best 2 election strategists, Crosby won 4 elections for John Howard and Messina got Obama in last year, many many people thought Romney would win the presidency but Messina turned that around and got Obama another 4 years

 

Those 2 are heading out campaign, they know what they are doing

Lyndon Crosby also ran Michael Howard's campaign in 2005. And you thinking Romney would win last year doesn't mean 'many people thought Romney would win'. Any psephologist worth their salt knew the fundamentals of Obama's voting coalition favoured Obama to win last year. You really overestimate the impact one person can have on a campaign - it doesn't really matter how amazing the two people leading the campaign are when you're targeting seats where Labour themselves will be fighting tooth and nail and where we won in 2010 anyway. The likes of Middlesborough aren't going to be going Tory because of house prices and Jim Messina, and you reall show up how amateur your projections are if you think they will.