I'm shocked. We've had great figures on the fall in unemployment in the last few hours and Craig hasn't started screaming about inevitable 100-seat majorities and hammering out tired soundbites about how Cameron's putting the Great back into Great Britain yet.

 

I am in Thailand atm, am very out of the loop in terms of goings on in the UK, plus vacation time is all about switching off so I have been forgetting about work and about politics etc, I return Wednesday so rest assured normal service will resume ;)

I have a general (very unscientific) test that, if even the Daily Mail commenters are unimpressed by supposed "good news" for the Conservatives, it's DEFINITELY not going to impress the public at large. That test worked when Craig was joyfully screeching that the autumn statement was a "game-changer" or whatever just because Conservative MPs had managed to shout loudly at Ed Balls, yet on the Daily Mail site, all the comments were people being horrified at the scenes of MPs acting like children. And it's the same today: the best-rated comments are all along the lines of "what good is a better statistic if it's all just crappy, short-term jobs, terrible pay and zero-hour contracts?"

 

Comments pages are not a reliable indicator, left wing social networkers and bloggers can put a link up on Twitter or Facebook and tell their followers to comment/vote etc and all of a sudden left wing views crowd out the right wing views

 

I don't think left wing views are representative of DM readers as a whole so if they are topping the comments I suspect that it is due to promotion on social networks

Comments pages are not a reliable indicator, left wing social networkers and bloggers can put a link up on Twitter or Facebook and tell their followers to comment/vote etc and all of a sudden left wing views crowd out the right wing views

 

I don't think left wing views are representative of DM readers as a whole so if they are topping the comments I suspect that it is due to promotion on social networks

In what way is "what good is a better statistic if it's all just crappy, short-term jobs, terrible pay and zero-hour contracts?" a left-wing view rather than one that most ordinary unpolitical people would probably hold?

http://labourlist.org/2014/01/8-reasons-la...erall-majority/

 

Interesting article, Craig will bleat on about the source being biased but it's hard to argue with a lot of it. In essence:

 

1. The people rating Miliband poorly and being optimistic about the economy in the polls are the same ones giving Labour a solid lead

2. A dead heat in vote share would leave Labour close to a majority and 40 ahead of the Tories

3. Labour are doing better in marginals than nationally

4. Disenfranchised Lib Dems who switched after 2010 have no reason to come back

5. Labour can keep former Lib Dems on board more easily than the Tories can sway those flirting with UKIP

6. Where will the new Tory votes come from to take them above 36%?

7. The lack of a large movement from the Tories to Labour since 2010 means there's less to swing back in 2015

8. Massive, disappearing poll leads before '92 and '97 came from bad polling in an era before a fourth party of any size

The same argument I made a couple of weeks ago *.*

In what way is "what good is a better statistic if it's all just crappy, short-term jobs, terrible pay and zero-hour contracts?" a left-wing view rather than one that most ordinary unpolitical people would probably hold?

 

Because it is a myth trotted out by the left, to try and demean what is a great achievement by this government, to have unemployment falling at a rate of knots

 

8 out of 10 new jobs are full time permanent jobs, of course some jobs have zero hours contracts and undoubtedly some have 'terrible pay', but the majority of jobs being created are full time jobs

 

I don't know what has happened in the last week or so, so there could be some news I have missed out on, Daily Mail website is unbearably slow, and English papers too expensive to justify out here so am out of the loop

 

 

Because it is a myth trotted out by the left, to try and demean what is a great achievement by this government, to have unemployment falling at a rate of knots

 

8 out of 10 new jobs are full time permanent jobs, of course some jobs have zero hours contracts and undoubtedly some have 'terrible pay', but the majority of jobs being created are full time jobs

 

I don't know what has happened in the last week or so, so there could be some news I have missed out on, Daily Mail website is unbearably slow, and English papers too expensive to justify out here so am out of the loop

 

Do you honestly believe that leftwingers would flock to the Daily Mail site of all places and start fanatically uprating comments just for the sake of winning an argument? http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v232/korn0818/ATRLSmilies/rip_zpsec10ede9.gif

 

What you don't understand is this isn't a "leftwing" argument, it's just a common argument outside of political circles. All the polls show even Conservative supporters don't believe there's a real recovery going on. People just don't put any faith in statistics of this kind, partly because a lot of people think the elites have flat-out fiddled the figures (there's certainly a conspiracy theory going round that Jobcentres are being put under pressure to mark down anyone who drops off benefits as being "in work", and that the ONS who compile the unemployment data can only rely on individual Jobcentres' information--whether there's any truth in that, I don't know), and even for those who do accept they're accurate, they're not going to change their minds just on the basis of what some statisticians are telling them about what's "officially" happening.

Because it is a myth trotted out by the left, to try and demean what is a great achievement by this government, to have unemployment falling at a rate of knots

 

8 out of 10 new jobs are full time permanent jobs, of course some jobs have zero hours contracts and undoubtedly some have 'terrible pay', but the majority of jobs being created are full time jobs

 

I don't know what has happened in the last week or so, so there could be some news I have missed out on, Daily Mail website is unbearably slow, and English papers too expensive to justify out here so am out of the loop

Since when does it become something that an ordinary unpolitical person wouldn't believe just because it is a myth trotted out by left-wing activists? It's not as if the ordinary unpolitical person is incapable of believing myths trotted out by right-wing activists.

I see they're trying the statistics game again:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25869001

 

I don't know when they're going to realise it looks terrible for a bunch of rich men to tell people that they're wrong to think they're worse off, that they just don't realise how good they've got it, and that they should show some more gratitude.

I wonder whether it'll make any considerable impact that the Tories are effectively basing their entire campaign this time on a set of recovery figures many don't believe and even more can't feel the effects of, given last time one of their major themes was that Labour were too technocratic and not involved enough with communities etc. Maybe I'm just overthinking it.

The same argument I made a couple of weeks ago *.*

I think you're broadly right, although I still think there's room for more innovative tax rises than slapping it on the things like NI which will inevitably get horrendous headlines.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25885606

 

Good grief, here we go again http://www.tennisforum.com/images/smilies/facepalm.png

 

First Conservative poll leads in 2 years coming up.

Edited January 24, 201411 yr by Danny

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25885606

 

Good grief, here we go again http://www.tennisforum.com/images/smilies/facepalm.png

 

First Conservative poll leads in 2 years coming up.

You said yourself that no one pays any attention to any of this.

You said yourself that no one pays any attention to any of this.

 

I'm not sure it's that they pay attention to NONE of it, they just don't pay attention to most of it, but occasionally things can cut through. For example, the very last time Labour were behind in the polls was when Ed Balls needlessly enraged public-sector workers (the group who had stayed most loyal to Labour at the 2010 election) by saying their pay should be frozen - certainly (and I'm aware this is the second time in a few days that I've "done a Craig" by using personal anecdote and acting like it's representative), my mum doesn't pay attention to politics any more than watching the news most nights, but she heard about that policy (because she works in the public sector, so naturally) and was furious about it and was saying for months that she wasn't going to vote Labour if all they were going to do was bring in Tory policies.

 

Even if rambling on about a "surplus" in itself won't get much attention from the public, the kind of cuts they would talk about to make it necessary certainly WOULD get public attention (assuming they're still too petrified to talk about hiking up taxes on the rich). Plus, it gives the Conservatives an excuse in the next election to make the deficit the main issue since they'd say "even Labour acknowledge the deficit needs to be brought down, so who do you trust more to do it?" which is never going to be a battle Labour win. It's just completely short term thinking from Balls yet again, the type of tactical move his mentor Gordon would be proud of which might bamboozle the Westminster pundits for a day but creates completely unnecessary problems down the road.

 

Not to mention what this does for the Scottish referendum, Alex Salmond must be wondering what on earth he's done to get a second Christmas within a month. It's now going to be so easy for him to tell people that they may as well vote for independence because, if they stay in the UK, they're guaranteed to get Tory policies no matter which party is in charge.

Edited January 25, 201411 yr by Danny

Slight revisionism Danny, given the last time we were behind in the polls came after Cameron's shortlived veto boost and Ed having a month from hell where day after day he'd be having headlines speculating over a coup and how weak he was to the point it actually cut through. The public sector pay freeze policy might have been noticed by some public sector workers, but ultimately the trend we saw more then was more a mix of a Tory boost mixed with a Labour depression (37-39 vs Tories 39-41) rather than Labour collapsing because of a public sector pay freeze policy.

Slight revisionism Danny, given the last time we were behind in the polls came after Cameron's shortlived veto boost and Ed having a month from hell where day after day he'd be having headlines speculating over a coup and how weak he was to the point it actually cut through. The public sector pay freeze policy might have been noticed by some public sector workers, but ultimately the trend we saw more then was more a mix of a Tory boost mixed with a Labour depression (37-39 vs Tories 39-41) rather than Labour collapsing because of a public sector pay freeze policy.

 

That's not actually true - the veto "flounce bounce" lasted literally a matter of days, by Xmas Labour

had already registered leads in 5 YouGov polls in a row and had achieved a big swing in some London byelection.

 

Then the new year came and Balls' announcement came, and was only on the back of that that Miliband's month from hell started, as a direct result of tumbling poll ratings, because the NewLabourites who had been fanatically insisting on policies that got them "economic credibility" conveniently disappeared and took no responsibility,

Edited January 25, 201411 yr by Danny

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25894312

 

And panic over.

...Not really, because that still leaves huge cuts they're presumably going to insist on unnecessarily making.

 

Bringing back the 50p tax rate is certainly good as far as it goes, although tbh it's slightly worrying it's taken them as long as this to commit to something so timid.

Edited January 25, 201411 yr by Danny

...Not really, because that still leaves huge cuts they're presumably going to insist on unnecessarily making.

 

Bringing back the 50p tax rate is certainly good as far as it goes, although tbh it's slightly worrying it's taken them as long as this to commit to something so timid.

Your main concern about the previous announcement seemed to be that it would give the Tories a poll boost, which this will almost certainly cancel out.

 

I've said a million times that I want more innovative tax rises but this has shown that in at least one way the next Labour government will be more progressive than the last one and put the top rate of tax up within their first decade in charge.

50p tax rate scaremongering by the scumservatives will be back too. It didn't raise much because they had notice it was being introduced (tax planning) and notice it was being withdrawn (tax planning)! You can't expect a tax to be effective over three years when people have a chance to arrange their tax affairs for the first and third of those years. The second is the only true year.

 

It would be great to see it back, along with the 10p rate, and make it a fairer contribution by all.

Your main concern about the previous announcement seemed to be that it would give the Tories a poll boost, which this will almost certainly cancel out.

 

I'll admit I was probably wrong on saying it would give the Conservatives an immediate poll boost - the 50p tax pledge, which will be popular, will be the main focus and will overshadow the "surplus" thing in news coverage, thankfully.

 

But I still think it creates a whole host of problems for further down the road. The media and the Conservatives now have total licence to demand what Labour would cut. And if they try and fudge it and say "we're going to make these huge cuts, but we're not going to tell you what we'll cut until after the election", then that would be an absolute disaster as people will just think it's insulting their intelligence. Whereas, if they'd simply said "we don't think a surplus is necessary, we've had a deficit this high for the past few years and the world hasn't caved in, therefore we certainly won't be making further cuts", then that would have stopped those problems.

 

50p tax rate scaremongering by the scumservatives will be back too. It didn't raise much because they had notice it was being introduced (tax planning) and notice it was being withdrawn (tax planning)! You can't expect a tax to be effective over three years when people have a chance to arrange their tax affairs for the first and third of those years. The second is the only true year.

 

It would be great to see it back, along with the 10p rate, and make it a fairer contribution by all.

 

The Institute Of Directors and other bodies representing the super-rich are already squealing with horror at the prospect of this minor tax rise. It really is amusing to see how little shame and self-awareness they have.