I've heard that one of the Azerbaijani singers can't really sing that well, and I know vocals don't need to be perfect to win, but if they're bad bad, that's them out. Danny or Eric could get a really good result for Sweden, but win I'm not sure. Russia do seem to have what it takes to win - good looking male who can sing, RedOne produced song.

 

The UK might be my tip at the minute, it seems a bit too wide open to call anything else. The UK should appeal to both juries and the tele-voters, and it seems Blue were quite popular in Europe. As for other fan favourites - Estonia, Hungary, Norway, Denmark, France, Croatia (maybe some of these shouldn't be included, maybe some more should), I don't know if I could just pick one.

Edited March 11, 201114 yr by Jack Sykes

Paddy Power:

01 France 9/2

02 Norway 5/1

03 United Kingdom 6/1

04 Estonia 7/1

05 Germany 8/1

=06 Russia 10/1

=06 Sweden 10/1

=08 Ireland 12/1

=08 Bosnia & Herzegovina 12/1

10 Azerbaijan 14/1

 

OddsChecker:

01 France

02 Norway

03 United Kingdom

04 Estonia

05 Germany

06 Sweden

07 Russia

08 Bosnia & Herzegovina

09 Azerbaijan

10 Hungary

Paddy Power surely can't be basing on the song - Ireland at equal 8th? :huh: Maybe I need to listen to B&H more, didn't sound top 10 good when I listened before.

Paddy Power surely can't be basing on the song - Ireland at equal 8th? :huh: Maybe I need to listen to B&H more, didn't sound top 10 good when I listened before.

OddsChecker:

01 France

02 Norway

03 United Kingdom

04 Estonia

05 Germany

06 Sweden

07 Russia

08 Bosnia & Herzegovina

09 Azerbaijan

10 Hungary

-

12 Ireland

 

 

Down to 4th in the Oddscheck odds <_<

I do think Norway is being quite overrated... the song is fairly terrible?

Paddy Power:

01 France 9/2

02 United Kingdom 5/1

03 Norway 11/2

=04 Estonia 7/1

=04 Sweden 7/1

06 Germany 8/1

07 Russia 10/1

=08 Azerbaijan 12/1

=08 Bosnia & Herzegovina 12/1

=08 Ireland 12/1

 

OddsChecker:

01 France

02 Estonia

03 Germany

04 United Kingdom

05 Norway

06 Sweden

07 Bosnia & Herzegovina

08 Azerbaijan

09 Russia

10 Denmark

Will Saade be Popular? I'm a little bit worried by the Frederik Kempe curse that's sunk Charlotte, Malena and Didrik despite them all having fairly similar excellent odds :drama:

I certainly think Saade stands more of a chance than Estonia, who I can't see winning in a million years and who I reckon will actually get a completely undeserved shock flop...

I do think Norway is being quite overrated... the song is fairly terrible?

 

I think some of their odds are slightly off, some bookmakers had them as 2nd favourite to win iirc. But I think it's a shoo-in for the top 10 (although it could depend on the draw in the final :unsure:), as France did well last year, and I think this has more appeal, and it's also been compared to Waka Waka, which was massive in Europe.

UK now 2nd favourite behind France, although if I was setting the odds I'd put us as favourites...

 

It's really giving me a 'winner' vibe, I think it will appeal to East and West, juries and televoters, whereas France's televote potential is questionable and Russia/Azerbaijan's lack the same 'wow' feeling that I get from I Can, the Russian guy's recording/live voice isn't the best and I think the Azerbaijan song is perhaps slightly too twee to win.

 

edit: That was on William Hill, we're third on OddsChecker behind France in second and Estonia in the lead - really surprised that's so hugely fancied to be honest :o

Estonia are the new bookies favourite to win -

 

01 Estonia 5/1

02 France 11/2

03 United Kingdom 6/1

=04 Norway 8/1

=04 Sweden 8/1

Estonia really would surprise me, it has to be said. If something 'different and anthemic' is going to landslide it then it will be either France or Norway perhaps, but if a solid pop song's going to win it then the only contenders I see right now in that scenario are the United Kingdom. I'd even be more inclined to put Azerbaijan and Bosnia-Herzegovina before Estonia...

Norway's piss-weak dilution of Waka Waka is not anthemic by any means!

 

But Estonia aren't going to win it either. Unless we're due a reappraisal of Little Boots across Europe....

Norway's piss-weak dilution of Waka Waka is not anthemic by any means!

 

But Estonia aren't going to win it either. Unless we're due a reappraisal of Little Boots across Europe....

 

It's worn on me rather quickly it has to be said, but it WILL stand out - there's nothing like it this year, it's fun and feel good and has a bright stage performance. She could be dangerous but I still don't see a winner in it. Shame Shakira hadn't saved Waka Waka for Eurovision - NU FAIRYTALE!

 

Right now, taking everything into account and disregarding what I think are overblown bookies predictions for Estonia and Norway, I'm calling;

 

1. United Kingdom

2. France

3. Bosnia-Herzegovina

4. Russia

5. Azerbaijan

 

With Denmark, Estonia, Norway, Germany, Sweden and sadly Turkey and Greece in the mix close behind...UK and France are completely interchangeable, I'm just being optimistic because I Can :D

I'd have Israel in the top ten at Germany's expense (apparently it's getting revamped, or at least Dana wants it revamped), I'd have Bosnia lower top ten (I think it'll win the semi fairly easily but suffer with the other semi's voters brought into play), and Denmark or Sweden shifted top five. I still think Azerbaijan are incredibly dangerous - put them in the last five performances and it's suitably anthemic, universal and rousing enough to challenge for victory.

 

I reckon this will be the year Turkey and/or Greece flop! I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them go out in the semis - unlikely, but far more possible this year than it has been for a while. Turkey, in particular, with a Montenegrin rehash, wouldn't shock me if they fell to mid-table obscurity.

I'd have Israel in the top ten at Germany's expense (apparently it's getting revamped, or at least Dana wants it revamped), I'd have Bosnia lower top ten (I think it'll win the semi fairly easily but suffer with the other semi's voters brought into play), and Denmark or Sweden shifted top five. I still think Azerbaijan are incredibly dangerous - put them in the last five performances and it's suitably anthemic, universal and rousing enough to challenge for victory.

 

I reckon this will be the year Turkey and/or Greece flop! I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them go out in the semis - unlikely, but far more possible this year than it has been for a while. Turkey, in particular, with a Montenegrin rehash, wouldn't shock me if they fell to mid-table obscurity.

 

It would be a great shame to see Bosnia-Herzegovina so low down, they've really pulled out their best entry in years imo, although I'm aware that the contest HAS been evolving and it doesn't sound much like an international hit like pretty much all of the 2009 and 2010 top 5's did, so I wouldn't be surprised if it does finish lower top ten. I think Denmark are perhaps being overlooked, it IS incredibly anthemic, far moreso than Azerbaijan imo which is just incredibly pleasant, a nice swaying singalong - but I don't see it winning from any place in the draw. I can't see every country rushing to the phone enough to give it 12's, and I can't see it being the jury favourite either...

 

Sweden and Germany I'm still completely unsure about. Melodifestivalen and Eurovision have such vastly different audiences, Saade's audience basically IS teenage girls and young gay men I guess, but songs with wider potential usually win - I'd say Dima Bilan maybe disproved this, but we pretty much know that at least 50 of his points came from the diaspora being generous, which Sweden won't have in their favour.

 

Like Russia last year, if Turkey/Greece DO manage to do well yet again, it will pretty much prove that they're untouchable, and I'm hoping that like the UK ALWAYS are, that their mediocre/terrible entries are rewarded with positions that match the quality!

The odd thing about Russia last year was that it picked up a fair few of its points from NON-diaspora - Turkey gave it one of their top three points, amongst a fair few other countries. It must have had some bizarre appeal beyond diaspora...

The odd thing about Russia last year was that it picked up a fair few of its points from NON-diaspora - Turkey gave it one of their top three points, amongst a fair few other countries. It must have had some bizarre appeal beyond diaspora...

 

It will be interesting to see where Greece/Turkey get support from this year. I swear if they're handed our 12 and 10 on a plate yet again when there are SO many UK friendly tracks in here, I'll be fuming. What annoys me most is when post-contest all the songs start climbing up iTunes, the Greek/Turkish entries are nowhere to be seen, yet the Swedish entries - which we give p*ss all to these days are without fail top 100 every year :lol:

Luckily I can't see either getting much jury support, whereas the jury support for OPA did at least make some sense.