Counting is now under way in Ireland's General Election held yesterday. It is the first election since the EU/IMF bail-out and Fianna Fail - who have been part of the government of Ireland in most parliaments - are taking a battering. Exit polls suggest that they will come third, behind Fine Gael and Labour with around 15% of the vote, their worst result ever by a long way. They may be wiped out completely in Dublin.

 

Because Ireland uses STV, it will take all weekend - and possibly into Monday - to get the full results.

 

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0226/election_...ay.html#article

 

 

Vote Quimby

Taking a look at the Exit Poll, it's funny how Dublin got it so so right and the rest of the country got it so so wrong. The fact that Fine Gael is leading is horrifying as they are no different than Fianna Fail. :wacko: I'm a Labour supporter, but I'd rather they didn't enter coalition with FG because it will go pear-shaped and Labour will end up taking the brunt of the damage. If they stay in opposition then they can keep FF down low where they belong. A FG-Lab government will allow FF to win the next election. And I don't think people realize how socially conservative FG actually are (not to mention how close they are to the Church <_<). If people were to vote on social policies alone, then Labour would have a huge majority. Pity. :(

 

edit: I can't spell. :(

Edited February 26, 201114 yr by Cal

The impression we've always got over here is that there is almost no difference between FF and FG. I've been watching some of the RTE coverage and one of the people recalled an anecdote about Clement Attlee. He went to the US and reported back on his findings about politics there. "They have two parties. There's the Republican Party who are very like our Conservative Party. Then there are the Democrats who are very like our Conservative Party." The same seems to apply to FF and FG.

 

It looks to me like a FG / Labour coalition will be the only real chance of a stable government, assuming FG don't do a deal with FF.

My impression was that Fine Gael are (even) more right-wing than Fianna Fail - which is why I don't really understand why, apparently, FG and Labour traditionally go into coalition with eachother.

 

I hope Labour learn from the UK coalition experience and don't go into coalition with FG, thereby having to neuter their own left-leaning positions AND having to share the blame for the disastrous yet very avoidable cuts that Fine Gael are committed to.

The only difference between FF and FG is that they took opposing sides during the civil war. That's about it. After that they're both centre-right, both aligned to the church, both stupid, and both horribly conservative. There were a few opinion polls near the end of last year that had Labour as the largest party at 35%. I think people panicked when FG started playing dirty and when Labour took a swipe at the IMF and EU over the bailout. FG even gets a high student vote, which is odd because they want to introduce tuition fees, which most students protested against (myself included) during the national demonstrations in November. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail both used the "a vote for Labour is a vote for abortion" trick a few weeks ago and it worked. People abandoned Labour in their droves and there were tons of anti-abortionists picketing outside various Labour offices. What people keep forgetting is that even though Labour are pro-choice, it would still have to be put to referendum, and the result would be about 50/50. Also, the majority of people in this country (around 64%) support gay marriage, and Labour were the only party who said they'd hold a referendum on this (it would've passed without a doubt, and it was one of the main topics in their manifesto), yet people vote for FG who are known to be very traditional and anti-gay marriage.

 

I thought people here knew better. At least the Dublin constituencies didn't have their heads in the clouds!

 

EDIT: First elected TD is Labour's Joan Burton of Dublin West.

Edited February 26, 201114 yr by Cal

It also looks like FF may hold on to a seat in Dublin West so it may not be a total wipe-out in the capital for them.

 

It's always puzzled me why some people turn against a party on a single issue on which there would be a referendum. The Tories tried the same trick here in 2001 on the issue of the euro. Both other parties said there would be a referendum - and it would have been harder to avoid than the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty - before joining. Yet the Tories insisted that voting for them was the only way to keep the pound. That, of course, would be the pound we are still using after a further nine years of Labour government.

The Green Party have been wiped out.

Shame about the Greens because they weren't actually that bad. Their problem was that they grew a pair of balls four years after they should have!

 

I think everybody is in awe over the Dún Laoghaire results... Labour and People Before Profit were battling it out for the final seat, only to have that bitch Mary Hanafin (FF) get a huge surge in late transfers to push Labour out. :( Labour are demanding a recount tomorrow for that constituency, although I don't think it'll do much!

Shame about the Greens because they weren't actually that bad. Their problem was that they grew a pair of balls four years after they should have!

 

I think everybody is in awe over the Dún Laoghaire results... Labour and People Before Profit were battling it out for the final seat, only to have that bitch Mary Hanafin (FF) get a huge surge in late transfers to push Labour out. :( Labour are demanding a recount tomorrow for that constituency, although I don't think it'll do much!

It seems strange that Sean Barrett's surplus votes seem to have been split almost evenly between the other FG candidate and the remaining FF candidate. Yes, I'm afraid I'm a real geek and I understand how STV works, even though we don't use it here.

Dublin NW is interesting - two seats to Labour and one to Sinn Fein. So all three seats go to distinctly left-wing parties and the two traditional "main parties" get nothing.

I haven't been following this that much - but I wonder, is there any chance at all that left-wing candidates will hold 50% of the seats in parliament? I.e. Labour, Sinn Fein, and I know a lot of the huge amount of successful independent candidates are left-wing.

I haven't been following this that much - but I wonder, is there any chance at all that left-wing candidates will hold 50% of the seats in parliament? I.e. Labour, Sinn Fein, and I know a lot of the huge amount of successful independent candidates are left-wing.

Assuming you count Fine Gael as centre-right then no. They have 31 of the 85 TDs elected so far.

I haven't been following this that much - but I wonder, is there any chance at all that left-wing candidates will hold 50% of the seats in parliament? I.e. Labour, Sinn Fein, and I know a lot of the huge amount of successful independent candidates are left-wing.

 

Most likely not - Fine Gael will probably get about 45% of the seats, with Fianna Fail picking about 10% of them. We could see a Fine Gael/Labour Left/Right coalition, which is being touted as the main option at the moment.

Dublin NW is interesting - two seats to Labour and one to Sinn Fein. So all three seats go to distinctly left-wing parties and the two traditional "main parties" get nothing.

 

Dublin is quite generally left-wing, but Dublin NW is a unique case I think. Both Labour candidates there are quite young and look very promising. Don't care much for Sinn Fein. :P I live in Dublin South Central (during university... but I'm registered to vote in Galway West) and it looks rather left-wing too. So far, one Labour has been elected, so after eight counts it looks like four out of the five seats are to left-wing candidates. Dublin Central, which is across the road from me, could be mostly left-wing... but I don't know what Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind) is terms of left or right. Galway West is very diverse. My first preference, Nolan (Lab) is leading, but O'Cuiv (FF) isn't too far behind. Two independents and one FG'er are performing well too.

Dublin is quite generally left-wing, but Dublin NW is a unique case I think. Both Labour candidates there are quite young and look very promising. Don't care much for Sinn Fein. :P I live in Dublin South Central (during university... but I'm registered to vote in Galway West) and it looks rather left-wing too. So far, one Labour has been elected, so after eight counts it looks like four out of the five seats are to left-wing candidates. Dublin Central, which is across the road from me, could be mostly left-wing... but I don't know what Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind) is terms of left or right. Galway West is very diverse. My first preference, Nolan (Lab) is leading, but O'Cuiv (FF) isn't too far behind. Two independents and one FG'er are performing well too.

I worked in Dublin for three years from 2001-4 and got the impression that it was a reasonably liberal city. I was hoping to get some comments on Dublin NW so thanks for that.

 

As I know nothing about the independent candidate eliminated in Galway West, I can't comment on what will happen there.

Shame about the Greens because they weren't actually that bad. Their problem was that they grew a pair of balls four years after they should have!

 

I think everybody is in awe over the Dún Laoghaire results... Labour and People Before Profit were battling it out for the final seat, only to have that bitch Mary Hanafin (FF) get a huge surge in late transfers to push Labour out. :( Labour are demanding a recount tomorrow for that constituency, although I don't think it'll do much!

No doubt you were pleased to see Hanafin lose then :D

Several recounts going on now. In Wicklow they've got to the 13th round of voting with nobody elected yet. A huge number of independent candidates got relatively few votes which all had to be redistributed. There are now just three votes between two FF candidates at the bottom so there's going to be a recount. Presumably - I hope someone in Ireland can confirm this - they have to start the whole process again. That seems to have happened in one of the Galway seats where there has been no news all day.

 

What fun :lol:

No doubt you were pleased to see Hanafin lose then :D

 

Delighted! And to a People Before Profit candidate! :lol:

 

Several recounts going on now. In Wicklow they've got to the 13th round of voting with nobody elected yet. A huge number of independent candidates got relatively few votes which all had to be redistributed. There are now just three votes between two FF candidates at the bottom so there's going to be a recount. Presumably - I hope someone in Ireland can confirm this - they have to start the whole process again. That seems to have happened in one of the Galway seats where there has been no news all day.

 

What fun :lol:

 

The Galway West recount will throw up a few surprises, I think. Nolan (Lab) and O'Cuiv (FF - actual idiot) are already elected, and I'm hoping the three FG candidates don't all get in! Connolly (Ind) got my 3rd preference, and she's centre-left, so I'm hoping she gets one of the seats...

 

 

Well it's finally over with the results in Galway West being declared this morning. Talks are now underway between Fine Gael and Labour. One of the FG people is saying that there are issues the opposition (i.e. themselves and Labour) had not been briefed on before the election. Sound familiar at all?