March 24, 201114 yr Anyway... here is my initial prediction for the final. :lol: United Kingdom 279France 261Sweden 225Azerbaijan 195Estonia 183Bosnia-Herzegovina 175Denmark 140Norway 100Hungary 97Israel 91Russia 87Turkey 84Italy 74Germany 73Greece 68Austria 62Finland 58Croatia 45Albania 39Slovenia 36Belarus 36Bulgaria 31Poland 23Slovakia 17Spain 15 Seriously difficult!
March 24, 201114 yr Author Another 11th for Russia?! Having seen Wolf Kati's vox on Hungarian X Factor, I'm becoming certain she'll probably miss the top 10. 21st for Belarus?! I'd probably switch them with Italy.
March 24, 201114 yr Looks fairly realistic, except I see Russia a lot higher and Hungary not top ten... I really still don't see Belarus qualifying at all, in fact I'd be happy to put money on them not qualifying - and if they did somehow manage it then David's 21st is much more realistic in the final than 13th imo. That top 8 would be quite literally incredible but the country's I'm finding hardest to call are Sweden (Kempe effect, I'm worried! - could be the fan favourite that crashes) and Germany (how on earth are Europe going to take to that, I have no idea).
March 24, 201114 yr Maybe he meant the full results of what each countries tele-vote & jury gave to each song. In 2009 we had a spreadsheet for jury results, with all points given, and one for the tele-vote. Couldn't find that last year :unsure: Exactly !! Isnt that weird or not ? Not particularly, besides we did get the full results somewhere, I definitely saw them at the time. Our televoters gave 12 points to Niamh Kavanagh and our juries gave her nothing.
March 24, 201114 yr ESC EXPERT... Lena's song was most definitely quality. You appear to be defining 'quality' as a classy sort of song, as the United Kingdom, Iceland and France all had in 2009. And if you're going by that, then France's 2011 song falls into the same category anyway. :wacko: You're forgetting they also voted overwhelmingly for the quirky 'Fairytale', a song not too dissimilar from 'Satellite' in terms of its audience reach... I don't really understand what sort of point you're trying to make here, that the whole thing is fixed for Germany and France to win? There will always be these ridiculous fix allegations, but that is SERIOUSLY clutching at straws. And besides, the 2010 juries also voted overwhelmingly for 'quality' songs such as Belgium, Georgia and Israel. Your whole argument is flawed tbh. I really hope i am wrong ;) but i dont think so ,as long as they never gave us the fully results,its something that strengthen my opinium ...by the way ,i believe that france this year dont have chances to win ,its an opera song that never had good performance In eurovision and its a kind of music for sort of people and its also a kind of music not for all the juries but for sort of them,do you agree with me or not ?
March 24, 201114 yr Not particularly, besides we did get the full results somewhere, I definitely saw them at the time. Our televoters gave 12 points to Niamh Kavanagh and our juries gave her nothing. Indeed, I recall that we gave Germany 7 points in the televote as I was disgusted that our juries (that gave her nothing) sunk her to 3 points from us overall... Niamh only got 15 points overall in the televote and 12 were from us, it's ridiculous to think that she only got 3 from elsewhere :o
March 24, 201114 yr I think Germany and Sweden are going to be the 'shock' failures this year - Of course Lena will pull in some points but i just dont see Europe going mad for her song and Sweden im just not getting at all!
March 24, 201114 yr Sweden could go either way tbh, but I was really struggling last night, as apart from the UK and France, I really don't know who has the ability to finish top five! These are only initial predictions anyway, I'll do it all again in a few weeks when I've got another spare few hours. :lol:
March 24, 201114 yr If Sweden flop, it won't be a massive shock to me personally, I'm well accustomed to them being the fan favourite and then vastly underperforming in the final by this point, particularly with Frederik Kempe songs :( @ ESC Expert, the juries are there to vote for what they consider the best song overall, taking music, lyrics and everything else into account. Lena's lyrics weren't going to win anybody any awards but then neither were Jade's in 2009, cliched X Factor winning song material, the production and presentation was classy but the lyrics weren't, especially considering the songwriters behind them. There was a worry that the juries coming back would send all of the old fashioned ballads back to the top of the scoreboard but Norway and Ireland last year proved that this really isn't the case. Just like the televoters, they can vote for uptempos, ballads or whatever they see fit imo. Look at the international jury input into Melodfiestivalen - Eric Saade and Danny - both modern pop/club tracks came out on top of the jury vote, whilst arguably the classiest, most lyrically challenging song in the mix, from Sara Varga, barely got a look in. And there's nothing wrong with that - it's about voting for the best overall song imo (which for me Satellite was last year), not necessarily the most respectable one. I'm 100% sure that there's nothing dodgy about last year's results, it would be a nail in the coffin of the contest if it was proven that anything was fixed. Lena topped both the public vote and the televote, the song had its share of haters but they just had to accept that from every angle, it was the most popular song last year.
March 24, 201114 yr Sweden could go either way tbh, but I was really struggling last night, as apart from the UK and France, I really don't know who has the ability to finish top five! These are only initial predictions anyway, I'll do it all again in a few weeks when I've got another spare few hours. :lol: Yeah i agree - There are no standout tracks yet this year in past years even if there was thought to be a run away winner i could always usually pick which songs were going to finish Top 5/10 but this year apart from France and UK nothing screams at me as being a major success - That said someone like Turkey or Malta will probably come 3rd now :lol:
March 24, 201114 yr Some countries, including the UK, revealed their split results last year, but not all. In 2009, eurovision.tv provided us with two pdf files which showed us the full split results from each country. Don't remember that last year. I don't think it was fixed - 'Satellite' was a big favourite before the contest, and could easily have got casual voters as well. But I would like to know why we didn't get full split results :unsure: Edited March 24, 201114 yr by Jaack Sykes
March 24, 201114 yr Some countries, including the UK, revealed their split results last year, but not all. In 2009, eurovision.tv provided us with two pdf files which showed us the full split results from each country. Don't remember that last year. I don't think it was fixed - 'Satellite' was a big favourite before the contest, and could easily have got casual voters as well. But I would like to know why we didn't get full split results :unsure: thats i am talking about ... sure germany was a big favor last year ,but also big favor was azerbaijan and very good favor was armenia,and both of them finished under the 5th place ,so dont tell me about favors... personally i dont like france' s song at all ,and i believe that many are not opera fans ,as i wrote before the opera fans are just a few and the juries are just a few too, so when you see france winning you all remeber my posts and i hope that nobody ll say "it was a big favor and the best song so it wins "
March 24, 201114 yr Author personally i dont like france' s song at all ,and i believe that many are not opera fans ,as i wrote before the opera fans are just a few and the juries are just a few too, so when you see france winning you all remeber my posts and i hope that nobody ll say "it was a big favor and the best song so it wins " What? Just because you don't think it's the best song doesn't mean it isn't, and it's not even my favourite. Likewise, you playing it down doesn't mean it isn't a favourite. And what's the 'juries are just a few' comment? It's 50:50 voting.
March 24, 201114 yr thats i am talking about ... sure germany was a big favor last year ,but also big favor was azerbaijan and very good favor was armenia,and both of them finished under the 5th place ,so dont tell me about favors... personally i dont like france' s song at all ,and i believe that many are not opera fans ,as i wrote before the opera fans are just a few and the juries are just a few too, so when you see france winning you all remeber my posts and i hope that nobody ll say "it was a big favor and the best song so it wins " There have been many occasions in the past of the favourites failing or finishing lower than expected, Germany were also the pre-contest favourite in 2002 iirc, and finished down in 21st! Greece/Sweden 2006, Sweden 2008, Israel/Azerbaijan/Croatia etc...2010, it happens - the bookies have as much knowledge about what's going to win as the rest of us - they're educated guesses, if they predicted everything correct all the time, there wouldn't be a need for bookies as nobody would use them. The EBU are under no obligation to reveal the full breakdown of every single vote, or even the overall split votes if they don't see fit to. If there was a fix that had made Germany win, trust me, you'd know about it. You can't keep the lid on something like that on what's Europe's biggest TV show by a mile. Each broadcaster would face huge backlash and no doubt be forced to pay a fine and the integrity of the competition would disappear. Songs I dislike have won in the past many times, the most recent being Russia's 2008 non-song - but I accept that across Europe, it was the most popular song (as well as being the bookies favourite - come on, it was a completely obvious winning contender from the moment Timbaland and his friends names were bandied about) and therefore the rightful winner. Just as Lena was and just as this year's winner will be. If Satellite wasn't in fact the most popular song last year then it didn't show, it went top 5 in 14 different countries charts after the contest. Drip Drop and Apricot Stone didn't even make the top ten anywhere. Opera may not be generally popular, but people can see a strong genre defining song/performance when they see one. I'm no opera fan but I can appreciate that it's an excellent, accomplished example of the genre, not typical to anything else here this year. Heavy metal fans watching Eurovision are few and far between I'd assume, yet it didn't stop Lordi winning because they had a memorable stand out package, which I believe France will have this year.
March 27, 201114 yr The EBU are under no obligation to reveal the full breakdown of every single vote, or even the overall split votes if they don't see fit to. If there was a fix that had made Germany win, trust me, you'd know about it. You can't keep the lid on something like that on what's Europe's biggest TV show by a mile. Each broadcaster would face huge backlash and no doubt be forced to pay a fine and the integrity of the competition would disappear. ok i am satisfied now ,In this sense EBU could give the final scoreboard without any details,as long as they make the rules no matter if they are unreasonable. Songs I dislike have won in the past many times, the most recent being Russia's 2008 non-song - but I accept that across Europe, it was the most popular song (as well as being the bookies favourite - come on, it was a completely obvious winning contender from the moment Timbaland and his friends names were bandied about) and therefore the rightful winner. Just as Lena was and just as this year's winner will be. If Satellite wasn't in fact the most popular song last year then it didn't show, it went top 5 in 14 different countries charts after the contest. Drip Drop and Apricot Stone didn't even make the top ten anywhere. I ll just tell you this, 7 countries from the last contest wasnt in the EE and not even candidate for EE , 5 of them gave 0points , AJERBAIJAN gave 1 point and just Russia gave 6 points . IS THIS A COINSIDENCE ?
March 27, 201114 yr I ll just tell you this, 7 countries from the last contest wasnt in the EE and not even candidate for EE , 5 of them gave 0points , AJERBAIJAN gave 1 point and just Russia gave 6 points . IS THIS A COINSIDENCE ? Yes... No? Maybe? I don't know what point you're trying to make.
March 27, 201114 yr EE? I don't think anyone has even a distant idea of what you're talking about, 'ESC Expert' :(
March 27, 201114 yr Author I think he's on about proper Eastern Europe (he seems to be referring to Armenia, Moldova, Belarus, and Georgia, but I can't for the life of me find the fifth nation he's on about - Portugal's the only other one that didn't vote for Germany, but what on earth have they got to do with the above countries?), but it's a bit of a redundant measure anyway. Why include those nations, but not, say, Ukraine, who also gave Germany 5 points? Deal with it, so-called 'ESC Expert'. Germany won last year fair and square.
March 27, 201114 yr That's all fine and dandy, but take out those seven countries and you still have another 30+ left. In theory, a song could win with 12's from 25 countries and nil points from the other 15... Why is it being spoken like the whole thing was rigged for Lena to win? Dear god, if the EBU were going to fix it for their chosen song to win, it wouldn't be something as love/hate as that, but something more respectable and 'quality'. Do you really think they'd have let Patricia Kaas slump to 8th in the final in 2009 if they had an influence on the leaderboard? Anyway, Russia did the opposite thing in 2008, they got more and much higher points from Eastern Europe than Western Europe, but it won because OVERALL it was the most popular song across the continent as a whole.
March 27, 201114 yr Yes... No? Maybe? I don't know what point you're trying to make. OK lets make the things more clear, This is a prediction topic for the esc of 2011, and i predict that, its FRANCE turn to win the contest,not because of the song but as GERMANY won last year, and i also strengthen my opinium , showing you the proves of how germany won .
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