March 30, 201114 yr ESC EXPERT, I'm curious to know why you think the Big 5 would want to fix it in their own favour?
March 30, 201114 yr I've no idea what you have predict, because the only posts you made last year were offering your services in advising people where to put their money when it came to betting on the contest, considering your impeccable record. EDIT: Apologies, you did in fact predict that Manga from Turkey, the band with many international fans singing the song which was among the bookies' favourites from the country with the biggest diaspora, would finish in the top ten. I don't think many of us saw that one coming, so well done for that. EDIT2: Oh and Tyron...raaarrrrrrr :kink: easy or not, it was a sure bet and it gave me good profit ;) , it was 1.40-1,45 not bad ! as easy was the live betting with my country GREECE for top 10 ,which i bought it at 2.00 before the begging of voting and i sold it after Albania vote us ,to 1.16 :cheer: knowing that we ll be sure be at the top 5 or top 3 (we were 1st ) at that point because 4 of 5 countries (Romania -Ireland -German -Serbia-Albania ) always giving us high points :cheer: ... Edited March 30, 201114 yr by ESC EXPERT
March 30, 201114 yr Well that's settled then. We may as well not bother watching the contest until 2015 now. :( I'll get the flights and hotels booked though, thanks ESC EXPERT! :magic: :w00t: :w00t: :w00t: :w00t: :w00t: :w00t:
March 30, 201114 yr Author Oh I SEE, he's resentful that Greece didn't win and the country that bailed Greece out did, also robbing him of a few quid on the bet winnings. I think I may take up hating ALGERIA. That 0-0 draw in the World Cup last year was clearly a fix, and it lost me about a fiver as well.
March 30, 201114 yr Oh I SEE, he's resentful that Greece didn't win and the country that bailed Greece out did, also robbing him of a few quid on the bet winnings. I think I may take up hating ALGERIA. That 0-0 draw in the World Cup last year was clearly a fix, and it lost me about a fiver as well. are you talking for me ?
March 30, 201114 yr Oh I've come to love this time of night on here :D Go on Tyron baby tell him who's boss!
March 30, 201114 yr Author So, ESC Expert, got any other calls for the top ten this year? I'm thinking of betting my family savings on your tips, you haven't been wrong yet :cheer: That Turkey tip last year? Amazing. Everyone told me I was being STUPID when I put down a tenner on it to go top ten. And I got £12 back*! Never would've happened if it wasn't for you :heart: *inclusive
March 31, 201114 yr So, ESC Expert, got any other calls for the top ten this year? I'm thinking of betting my family savings on your tips, you haven't been wrong yet :cheer: That Turkey tip last year? Amazing. Everyone told me I was being STUPID when I put down a tenner on it to go top ten. And I got £12 back*! Never would've happened if it wasn't for you :heart: *inclusive :w00t: good!! so, if it was so easy and so sure as you re claiming ,why you didnt bet 10.000 to win 5.000 for example or all your money ? i ll tell you why , because ,it wasnt sure until the end of voting when we saw the results. do you believe that the bookmakers are stupit ? if it was sure as you are claiming the odds would have fallen to 1.10, 1.05 or 1,01 ... ;) ps .when manga announced the song ,the results of the biggest poll in turkey was ,75% didnt like it and only 25% liked it .... Edited March 31, 201114 yr by ESC EXPERT
March 31, 201114 yr :w00t: good!! so, if it was so easy and so sure as you re claiming ,why you didnt bet 10.000 to win 5.000 for example or all your money ? i ll tell you why , because ,it wasnt sure until the end of voting when we saw the results. do you believe that the bookmakers are stupit ? if it was sure as you are claiming the odds would have fallen to 1.10, 1.05 or 1,01 ... ;) ps .when manga announced the song ,the results of the biggest poll in turkey was ,75% didnt like it and only 25% liked it .... You are as interesting as Josh Dubovie's career.
March 31, 201114 yr :w00t: good!! so, if it was so easy and so sure as you re claiming ,why you didnt bet 10.000 to win 5.000 for example or all your money ? i ll tell you why , because ,it wasnt sure until the end of voting when we saw the results. do you believe that the bookmakers are stupit ? if it was sure as you are claiming the odds would have fallen to 1.10, 1.05 or 1,01 ... ;) ps .when manga announced the song ,the results of the biggest poll in turkey was ,75% didnt like it and only 25% liked it .... Well done.
April 1, 201114 yr Stop belittling him :lol: He has an opinion, no need to make him look more stupid that he already does ^_^
April 1, 201114 yr YEAH TYRON stop belittling him! Honestly have a bit of compassion, do you have no feelings? -_-
April 2, 201114 yr 101 POLAND - Magdalena Tul - Jestem It ticks all the Eurovision boxes but it is a shame they couldn't come up with a decent English version (the proposed one was dreadful). This tries hard to sound contemporary but really it's just an above average piece of eurotrash. It is a good opener though. It's on the brinck of qualification but I suspect it might just miss out. 102 NORWAY - Stella Mwangi - Haba Haba The new version is a big improvement on the first one. Now she sings it at a higher pitch/tone/whatever I reckon she will be able to pull it off live a little better than she did in the NF. Having said that, I don't think her vocal limitations are a huge problem with this song. This works better as a performance than a song and I think if the arena gets behind it, it will work on screen. Right now I'm expecting a similar result to France 2010 with televoters supporting it more than the juries... though if she really makes a dog's dinner of it it might not qualify. 103 ALBANIA - Aurela Gaçe - Feel The Passion I'm rarely impressed by Albanian entries and this year is no exception. In fact it could be my least favourite so far. I usually like a shouty chorus but this just sounds like an absolute row to me and I simply cannot imagine it getting through the semi. Glad it got a lousy draw. Eek I must turn this one off sorry. 104 ARMENIA - Emmy - Boom Boom It's Armenia's answer to Lolly! Armenia have had some dodgy entries so far but this is probably their worst to date. An irritating singer, with an extremely juvenile song which wouldn't sound out of place in JESC. I expect she will get through because she's singing for Armenia - but perhaps only JUST. 105 TURKEY - Yüksek Sadakat - Live It Up I was extremely surprised Turkey had selected such a weak song when this first came out, but the new version is a huge improvement and I feel it may be being underestimated. With a decent performance on the night I see no reason why Turkey won't continue their run of top ten finishes, though I don't see it doing as well as their 2010 entry. 106 SERBIA - Nina - Čaroban Not what you would normally expect from Serbia but it's a nice enough cute sounding song. They're missing a trick not sending an English version though because I think it's too Western-sounding for their neighbours to automatically vote for it, yet it's in foreign so everyone else will probably forget it, especially with this draw. I reckon their usual base vote will not be enough to get them through the semi. They've fallen before... 107 RUSSIA - Alexey Vorobyov - Get You Not sure about this new intro.. he hasn't got the voice to pull it off. Actually this is a bit of a dilemma for me because I actually think the song is one of the catchiest of the up-tempos this year, but his voice is really poor. I wouldn't bet against them being able to mask it well with good BVs and a good visual routine though. Assuming they do the best they can do with it, it should be in with a shout of top 5, but I doubt it'll be enough to win again. 108 SWITZERLAND - Anna Rossinelli - In Love For A While Early on in the season I thought this might have a chance of winning but now I think although it's nice enough, it just plods on a bit too much and at the end won't be remembered. I do think it deserves to qualify, but with Switzerland's bad luck it seems unlikely. 109 GEORGIA - Eldrine - One More Day One of the more modern songs in the contest, but there's still something unmistakably Eurovision about it. Although the first girl was crap live, I did prefer her studio version to the new one. But it's how it sounds on the night what counts. Though this is as shouty as the Albanian one, I don't find this one irritating. I fully expect this to qualify but it will do just OK in the final as it probably doesn't have widespread appeal. 110 FINLAND - Paradise Oskar - Da Da Dam Cannot make my mind up on this one. I like this style of song (Belgium was my favourite last year) but the lyrics on this one really make me cringe and I don't think I like Oskar's voice very much either. I'm remembering the dirge that was Latvia 2005 though and how surprised I was that did so very well - so I haven't got a clue. Right now I'll say it will qualify but perhaps do a Cyprus 2010 in the final - but if I were a betting man I might put a tenner each-way bet on it just to make things interesting... 111 MALTA - Glen Vella - One Life One of the most improved entries of the year I think. It's big and camp and ridiculous but it's not Eurovision without one or two songs like this so it's very welcome. Once again though it ain't gonna be Malta's year and they will probably be stuck in the semi yet again... 112 SAN MARINO - Senit - Stand By Having initially being my biggest disappointment of the year, as the song just did not meet my high expectations, this has now grown on me a lot. It's run of the mill Radio 2 fodder but she'll give a good performance and it'll be enjoyable enough on the night. It's not going to qualify though. 113 CROATIA - Daria Kinzer - Celebrate There's something rather unfortunate about poor Daria. She just isn't a popstar. And once you've seen that drag queen version it cannot be unseen. I can imagine bopping up and down to this one on the night though. It's at least better than "Break A Leg", and that obnoxious fat bloke she was up against. Will probably finish in the bottom 3 of this semi. 114 ICELAND - Sigurjon's Friends - Coming Home Yohanna not getting the ticket was probably my personal low point of the NF season for me, so it's hard to judge this one fairly. But I have to concede the English version is a big improvement, and we have heard entries like this do very well in the last decade. Older viewers will love this one. It's qualifying. 115 HUNGARY - Kati Wolf - What About My Dreams I'm actually not usually a big fan of the big disco numbers - I always zap through Albania and Iceland when I watch the 2010 final - but this is in another league to those in my book. It's classy, well structured and has a great chorus. And I just love the Ace Of Base-esque BVs towards the end. I wouldn't call this a fanw**k - it'll do fairly well, but sadly not come close to winning. 116 PORTUGAL - Homens da Luta - A Luta é Alegria On the one hand this deserves to come dead last, but I can see it getting some random points here and there. I do think it being in Portugese though will mean most of Europe will not get the joke, so I don't really see how it has a realistic chance of qualifying. But we've been surprised before. 117 LITHUANIA - Evelina Sašenko - C'est Ma Vie Possibly the worst entry of the year. It's so twee and old-fashioned it makes me cringe. This will almost certainly come last IMO despite the good draw. 118 AZERBAIJAN - Eldar & Nigar - Running Scared Nigar's version of "It's My Time" is second only to Rebecca Black's "Friday" on my list of the most amusing YouTube clips of the year so far, so I totally wasn't expecting them to come up with a decent song at the end of it. But they have. We'll have to wait and see whether she can give a good enough vocal on the night, but right now it looks like a shoo-in for the final and will probably place in the top 10 on Saturday too. 119 GREECE - Loucas Yiorkas feat. Stereo Mike - Watch My Dance I don't get the negativity surrounding this song. I actually think it's one of the best Greek entries in many years, and with this draw it cannot fail to qualify. This will do much better than people are expecting, and again I would expect it to finish in the final top 10. QUALIFYING: RUSSIA AZERBAIJAN TURKEY GREECE HUNGARY GEORGIA ICELAND NORWAY FINLAND ARMENIA OUT: POLAND SWITZERLAND SERBIA ALBANIA CROATIA MALTA SAN MARINO PORTUGAL LITHUANIA Semi 1 is definitely the tougher semi, but I actually find that one far easier to predict - there are far more borderline qualifiers in this second semi. 201 BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA - Dino Merlin - Love In Rewind I wasn't expecting this old man to come up with something so good - it's classic yet contemporary at the same time. It's gonna do very well but right now I have too many songs in my top 5 to find a place for this. But I still wouldn't be surprised to see this winning either... tough year! 202 AUSTRIA - Nadine Beiler - The Secret Is Love I hated this on the first listen, but I think I was just depressed about Oida Taunz not making it through. Okay, the lyrics are cheesy but what an amazing voice. These Whitney in the 80s ballads don't tend to do very well for some bizarre reason, but with this now being one of my favourites of the year, I hope she can impress enough people with the performance to sneak through - though admittedly singing for Austria and in second position it's going to be an uphill struggle. 203 THE NETHERLANDS - 3JS - Never Alone I'm starting to lose patience with the Netherlands. They cannot be happy about failing to qualify every year (wasn't 2004 their last final?!) yet they continue to send entries which are SO very Dutch, and Dutch pop isn't really the best. They might as well be singing this in Dutch too because I have no idea what they are singing in this English version as I am slowly falling into a coma... not to the qualifying. 204 BELGIUM - Witloof Bay - With Love Baby Belgium probably aren't either. It's a nice gimmick and will get noticed, but not liked or even remembered. The Belgians and Dutch don't even vote for each other that much on the rare opportunities they have to do so. 205 SLOVAKIA - TWiiNS - I'm Still Alive This sounded so promising from the teasers didn't it? It's a pleasant radio song but it's going to bore the pants off the viewers and nobody is likely to vote for it. There's also something slightly sinister about these girls, not sure what it is... 206 UKRAINE - Mika Newton - Angel I was a bit miffed that the only reason this girl got the ticket was because she rigged the televote, but even moving on from that, this is just dreary. It really isn't any better than the Slovakian entry and I don't think the inevitable high votes from Estonia and Latvia will be quite enough to get them through on this occasion. 207 MOLDOVA - Zdob Si Zdub - So Lucky This is probably the entry I'm the least familiar with, and listening to it now I'm as unsure as ever. We've seen entries like this flop and succeed in equal measure - but with after four very poor songs before it, the draw really works in its favour and with the inevitable 12 points from Romania giving it a boost, this is probably going through. 208 SWEDEN - Eric Saade - Popular If we are to compare this to the Russian entry, I think this beats it hands down, but with Sweden's recent poor results I am finding it difficult to predict how well it will do. I definitely cannot see them failing to qualify for a second year on the trot, but how well it will do in the final may well depend on whether it sounds as good without the pre-recorded BVs, and whether the impressive visual routine comes across as well in Dusseldorf. This could even be a potential winner. I have no idea. 209 CYPRUS - Christos Mylordou - San Aggelos S'Agapisa Not the vocal car crash I was expecting - I suppose they had no choice but to let him sing in Greek as he was so bad in English. He won't disgrace himself but it's too ethnic to qualify, especially with Greece in the other semi. 210 BULGARIA - Poli Genova - Na Inat Surprised to see this is fairly popular as it doesn't really go anywhere for me, and this one badly needed to go to English to stand any chance of qualifying. Definitely an alsoran for me. 211 FYR MACEDONIA - Vlatko Iliveski - Rusinka I like the video, the song is just meh. Nothing much to say about it. It's not qualifying. 212 ISRAEL - Dana International - Ding Dong Not sure what the fuss is about surrounding the new mix - it is a significant improvement on the first one in my opinion. I would have expected her to come up with a better song, but I think because of who she is, and the fact she comes after a few no-hopers gives her *some* chance of just about qualifying.. but I think at the moment she will just miss out. 213 SLOVENIA - Maja Keuc - No One This is my number one of the year. Some of my recent favourites have done better than many people expected after getting a late draw in the final, so I've got my fingers crossed she will get through and draw place 25 out of the hat! I was slightly worried the English version wouldn't compare to the Slovenian but it's a definite improvement and I just love the way it builds and builds. And what a voice! 7th place (twice) is the best Slovenia have ever done, and you'd be a fool to say they don't have a great chance of beating that this year. It's a little dark horse this one. 214 ROMANIA - Hotel FM - Change What is it with Romania and horrible twee songs like this at the moment? I'm quite surprised how cheesy it is as a Brit is involved.. having said that, with their 2010 entry (and Denmark's) doing so well, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this do very well with televoters, and there's no way it isn't qualifying. 215 ESTONIA - Getter Jaani - Rockefeller Street How much does the success of this song rely on the choreography? Quite a bit I think... but it IS a good routine. The song is catchy too. I don't actually think it sounds like a winner, but this year is a weird year, with many songs that sound like top 5 finishers, but not one that screams winner. So I've been trying very hard to convince myself that this is the one that will win - but it could be that the draw this year will play a huge part in deciding whether this comes 1st or merely 7th. 216 BELARUS - Anastasiya Vinnikova - I Love Belarus The final song somehow isn't as ridiculous as the first one that came out. It is catchy and memorable and it's very well produced. I didn't have it as qualifying until just this minute as I'm listening to it in context and all the way through - it is going to make it. 217 LATVIA - Musiqq - Angel In Disguise One of the more baffling selections of the year - I mean I didn't particularly like the Banjo one very much, but if I were voting for one of the two I'd at least go for it as it had a much better chance of doing well in Eurovision. This really doesn't go anywhere, and I can't forgive them for the "looscious ties" line. 218 DENMARK - A Friend In London - New Tomorrow One of my favourites from the moment it was selected, though I have overplayed it slightly now which might be affecting my judgement. From this draw there is no way it isn't qualifying, so how will it do in the final? Could be another one of those which is very dependent on where it is drawn. A late draw could see it win - it's joyful and anthemic. The only thing that lets it down is the guy isn't a confident enough live singer and could do with some more backup on the chorus. 219 IRELAND - Jedward - Lipstick If they play it straight with a boring performance like they did at the NF, I don't think people will be able to get past the poor vocals and the ridiculous hair - but if, as I expect them to, do a big X Factor style performance, hopefully Europe will get the joke. Which is what it is, remember. Don't take this one seriously. It's fun, but is it funny? Let's see. Should make it through. QUALIFYING: ESTONIA BOSNIA-HERZ DENMARK SLOVENIA SWEDEN ROMANIA IRELAND MOLDOVA BELARUS AUSTRIA OUT: ISRAEL UKRAINE LATVIA CYPRUS FYR MACEDONIA BULGARIA NETHERLANDS BELGIUM SLOVAKIA F11 FRANCE - Amaury Vassili - Sognu At first I was quite disappointed this was so old-fashioned, but I'm starting to see why this is a serious contender. Assuming he pulls it off live, it's going to "go big in the hall" and get a massive jury vote no question. I'm just not so sure whether the televote will be big enough for it to quite win. It depends how epic the performance is. F12 ITALY - Raphael Gualazzi - Follia D'amore Frankly I'm still livid they didn't pick Moda or bast*rdo, but we are where we are. This is still pants though. I don't think the guy can even sing. It will get some "welcome back" jury votes, and the English-Italian mix is clever, but this is going to be a disappointing result for Italy and I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't bother coming back next year sadly. F14 UNITED KINGDOM - Blue - I Can I didn't love it on first listen of the studio version, but the Graham Norton performance got me on side. How well we do may depend very much on whether Lee can nail it on the night with the high bits. It could all go very horribly wrong. But I think that they have a significant enough fanbase in Europe to pick up enough points to make us a shoo-in for the top 10 - I just think some people are getting a little over-excited about our chances of *winning*. F16 GERMANY - Lena - Taken By A Stranger Last year I allowed my first impression of the NF performance of Satellite, and the views of certain people whose opinions I value in Eurovisionia to completely cloud my judgement and I simply could not imagine Lena coming close to winning last year. Even though on reflection, it was obvious! This year though I am baffled by the huge support the German public gave this song. It must just be a very German thing. I cannot see her making it the double, and really I would be surprised to see it in the top 10... F22 SPAIN - Lucía Pérez - Que Me Quiten Lo Bailao Oh Spain, give it up. You have completely lost the plot. Nuff said. Right now I can see several songs doing very well with no one obvious winner so will obviously have to re-adjust as the rehearsals begin, but I think Estonia stands a very good chance of winning provided the choreography works on the big stage and gets a draw in the second half of the show. Russia just need to make sure the vocals come across OK on the night to get a good result. France can win but I'm just struggling to decide whether the general public will get it in the same way the juries are guaranteed to. Bosnia-Herz will go big in the hall and again could win with a late draw. Slovenia is the dark horse but I'm going for 5th place now. As for UK - just trying not to get too carried away... 01 ESTONIA 02 RUSSIA 03 FRANCE 04 BOSNIA-HERZ 05 SLOVENIA 06 UNITED KINGDOM 07 TURKEY 08 DENMARK 09 AZERBAIJAN 10 GREECE 11 HUNGARY 12 SWEDEN 13 ROMANIA 14 NORWAY 15 GERMANY 16 FINLAND 17 BELARUS 18 GEORGIA 19 ITALY 20 ARMENIA 21 ICELAND 22 MOLDOVA 23 IRELAND 24 AUSTRIA 25 SPAIN
April 2, 201114 yr Author Interesting views Ben, but there are a few I want to analyse a little... 207 MOLDOVA - Zdob Si Zdub - So Lucky This is probably the entry I'm the least familiar with, and listening to it now I'm as unsure as ever. We've seen entries like this flop and succeed in equal measure - but with after four very poor songs before it, the draw really works in its favour and with the inevitable 12 points from Romania giving it a boost, this is probably going through. Does it really though? Ukraine's entry isn't THAT bad, and when have we ever seen an entry like this succeed without a gimmick? I don't see this at all qualifying. 212 ISRAEL - Dana International - Ding Dong Not sure what the fuss is about surrounding the new mix - it is a significant improvement on the first one in my opinion. I would have expected her to come up with a better song, but I think because of who she is, and the fact she comes after a few no-hopers gives her *some* chance of just about qualifying.. but I think at the moment she will just miss out. I do think you're falling victim here to the same views as some of the people over at ESCToday - that, just because it isn't as good as Diva, it doesn't stand a chance of doing well. This isn't terrible by any means, and I'd certainly have it down as a definite qualifier. It's probably the most famous winner of Eurovision in the last generation for goodness sake! 214 ROMANIA - Hotel FM - Change What is it with Romania and horrible twee songs like this at the moment? I'm quite surprised how cheesy it is as a Brit is involved.. having said that, with their 2010 entry (and Denmark's) doing so well, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see this do very well with televoters, and there's no way it isn't qualifying. This isn't really anything like their entry (or Denmark's!) last year (and I wouldn't exactly call Playing With Fire 'twee'!), so I don't think you can judge it doing well with televoters off the back of that. I reckon this one's in the balance - I'd much rather it didn't go through though. 219 IRELAND - Jedward - Lipstick If they play it straight with a boring performance like they did at the NF, I don't think people will be able to get past the poor vocals and the ridiculous hair - but if, as I expect them to, do a big X Factor style performance, hopefully Europe will get the joke. Which is what it is, remember. Don't take this one seriously. It's fun, but is it funny? Let's see. Should make it through. I don't see Europe getting the joke at all. The draw is the only thing this has got going for it - I expect this will go the exact same way as Dustin the Turkey, Cipela and Leto Svet.
April 2, 201114 yr I don't see Europe getting the joke at all. The draw is the only thing this has got going for it - I expect this will go the exact same way as Dustin the Turkey, Cipela and Leto Svet. The thing is though, they're not entering as a "joke" entry. I think it could scrape through, since unlike Hungary and Israel, poor vocals probably won't affect the song too much. It's certainly not my cup of tea, regardless of who is singing it, and Jedward going through would be a travesty, but I wouldn't discount it because of the novelty thing.
April 2, 201114 yr Author The thing is though, they're not entering as a "joke" entry. I think it could scrape through, since unlike Hungary and Israel, poor vocals probably won't affect the song too much. It's certainly not my cup of tea, regardless of who is singing it, and Jedward going through would be a travesty, but I wouldn't discount it because of the novelty thing. I just don't see where the votes are at all coming from - the vox are terrible, the song's pretty cheap as a whole, and the whole of Europe will just be seeing two people act like idiots who they've never heard of.
April 2, 201114 yr It's rather catchy though. I could remember the melody after just one listen, which can't be said for the vast majority of this year's entries.
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