May 12, 201114 yr Jedward will also be on in the first hour now with that slot, so it will be interesting to see how many viewers desert Britain's Got Talent this year to see them. Can't wait for the British votes, I just wonder if we actually give Ireland any points. I know we are guaranteed points from Malta, apparently Malta has a huge Blue fanbase. :D
May 12, 201114 yr Yet Hungary remains in your signature. BAFFLING. Not too baffling Hungary and Romania are my favourites, but Azerbaijan is my clear favourite.
May 12, 201114 yr watched this semi with my friends at my place and our mutual faves were Slovenia and Bulgaria! what a relieve when Slovenia went through as 9th :drama: Maja FTW on Saturday plz! :wub: or the UK :D Edited May 12, 201114 yr by ♫ Boyan ♫
May 12, 201114 yr Author DRAW ANALYSIS Broadly speaking, the draw has split into four or so areas: Finland to Lithuania (01-04) which is, Denmark aside, quite slow and light; Hungary to Russia (05-10) which is solid uptempo; France to United Kingdom (11-14) which is mainly composed of respectable, rousing tracks, and Moldova to Georgia (15-25), which switches back and forth between big ballads and light bright pop entries (with the exception of Moldova, Germany and Georgia). A couple of switches would've turned this into a far less samey blocked out evening. 01 Finland 02 Bosnia - Two acoustic guitar-led ballads in a row? Kiss goodbye to their chances. Top ten contenders for both at best now I think - and what an utterly TERRIBLE start. 03 Denmark - Will do well between Bosnia and Lithuania as there's BIG contrast between those two and a driving power pop track, but is pretty much out of contention. Could threaten the top five. 04 Lithuania - Will do far better than it looked to ever do now we know it's between Denmark and Hungary, but will probably be overshadowed by the massive block of ballads towards the end. 05 Hungary 06 Ireland 07 Sweden 08 Estonia 09 Greece 10 Russia - Well, what's there to say that won't already have been said? Hungary's dead in the water (Wolfie would've stood out far better had someone from the ballad block at the end swapped with Denmark), and there's so much going on here that I'm discounting Sweden and Estonia from victory immediately as they'll get caught in the mix. Top ten, maybe top five at best for both. Greece are slightly darker but still very big, so Russia will do very well out of the contrast between them and... 11 France - ...who after a six track block of massive pop uptempos (and Greece) are now almost guaranteed victory. Amaury will stand out massively, as if things weren't in his favour already. 12 Italy 13 Switzerland - I'm not sure if these two will have a positive or negative effect on each other really. Both offer a bit of a breather after the BIG nature of Hungary through France, so I think Switzerland could do quite well - possible shock top ten? 14 United Kingdom 15 Moldova - Will stand out quite a lot after Switzerland, but I'm worried that we might be forgotten a bit after the insanity of Moldova. Great as our track is, it's not the best contrast for us. I'm still calling top three for the UK. I'd hope Moldova will be slaughtered by the juries, but it either didn't happen, or it did and the televoters were powerful enough to overrule it...both of which scare me in a big way about how they could do on Saturday. I don't want Moldova in the top ten but it's becoming a very scary possibility. 16 Germany 17 Romania - Dignified, subtle, gorgeous - everything that Moldova isn't. Will stand out massively between Moldova and Romania and could be a shock top five. Romania are out of contention for anything big I think between Germany and Austria... 18 Austria 19 Azerbaijan 20 Slovenia - Three gorgeous big ballads - Azerbaijan are out of contention though with the weakest vox of the three. Top five will be a struggle, and the other two won't have done too well out of this. How much better would this in terms of mood throughout if Sweden was 20th? This is like the shittest mixtape ever. 21 Iceland 22 Spain - Will stand out big after Slovenia's big Fighter-style ballad. Both are quite fluffy and I think Spain will come out of this worse out of the two. 23 Ukraine - On track for another top ten with a perfect draw between two light pop tracks :manson: 24 Serbia 25 Georgia - A wonderful contrast for both. Shock top tens ahoy?
May 12, 201114 yr Not too baffling Hungary and Romania are my favourites, but Azerbaijan is my clear favourite. You literally JUST said 'Not too fussed about Hungary' :mellow:
May 12, 201114 yr Author BASICALLY I think it's a straight fight between France and the UK. So back to where we were about a week ago then http://www.moopy.org.uk/forums/images/smilies/grin.gif
May 12, 201114 yr Can't wait for the British votes, I just wonder if we actually give Ireland any points. I know we are guaranteed points from Malta, apparently Malta has a huge Blue fanbase. :D I think UK will give quite a few points to Ireland. Juries will obviously snub it but Jedward could come 1st on the Televoters side. But UK will give 12 points to Greece of something though. :lol: And we'll borrow some points at least from Italy, only just because. Apparently Blue used to be very big there! And they were famous all over the Europe too. For instance, I'll be quite surprised if Blue don't get anything from Russia. That's our main advantage over France: we have a fanbase!
May 12, 201114 yr Author But then the likes of Finland and Spain in 2009 performed last/2nd to last and still both managed to finish in the bottom three, so I don't think it's everything. As I said, contrast is everything. Both were poorly performed uptempos.
May 12, 201114 yr BASICALLY I think it's a straight fight between France and the UK. So back to where we were about a week ago then http://www.moopy.org.uk/forums/images/smilies/grin.gif With that epic contrast I'd put Germany in with them. Not as a winner, but one that's going to mix things up and cause an upset. If Lee screeches [Which is about as certain as FSR Ashvania being dead, which is as certain as the pope being Catholic] and Lena pulls it out the bag she could potentially steal 2nd, or steal enough of the limelight from Blue to ensure Sweden get top 3. [i can dream, and they deserve to win]
May 12, 201114 yr You literally JUST said 'Not too fussed about Hungary' :mellow: The final placing just killed the mood.
May 12, 201114 yr Good question... If the ad break is between 6 and 7 or 7 and 8 then Saade might still have an outside chance at top3.
May 12, 201114 yr 11 France - ...who after a six track block of massive pop uptempos (and Greece) are now almost guaranteed victory. Amaury will stand out massively, as if things weren't in his favour already. I truly believe that wherever you put France it will stand out. It just sounds like pretty much nothing else, not just this year but in Eurovision generally.
May 12, 201114 yr Author With that epic contrast I'd put Germany in with them. Not as a winner, but one that's going to mix things up and cause an upset. If Lee screeches [Which is about as certain as FSR Ashvania being dead, which is as certain as the pope being Catholic] and Lena pulls it out the bag she could potentially steal 2nd, or steal enough of the limelight from Blue to ensure Sweden get top 3. [i can dream, and they deserve to win] I was originally going to put in 'with Germany as dark horses just behind', but that wouldn't quite have been where we were last week :lol: I think you overstate the effects of Lee screeching. And it's not inevitable. Sweden aren't getting top three in that block. If the ad break is between 6 and 7 or 7 and 8 then Saade might still have an outside chance at top3. Give it up.
May 12, 201114 yr Author I truly believe that wherever you put France it will stand out. It just sounds like pretty much nothing else, not just this year but in Eurovision generally. Of course it will stand out, but put it this way - where would France stand out more? Straight after a block of six massive pop tracks (and Greece, a big moody stomper), or straight after Austria and Lithuania? I'd say we'd be looking at a VERY close fight for the win if Lithuania had been drawn 10th.
May 12, 201114 yr If the ad break is between 6 and 7 or 7 and 8 then Saade might still have an outside chance at top3. It could be every 5 tracks, which sounds reasonable if there is 25 tracks, its only a hunch though
May 12, 201114 yr I was originally going to put in 'with Germany as dark horses just behind', but that wouldn't quite have been where we were last week :lol: I think you overstate the effects of Lee screeching. And it's not inevitable. Sweden aren't getting top three in that block. Give it up. Moldova getting 15 has really help Germany seal a respectable finish for Lena. I will keep my hope that common sense prevails and France do not win while Sweden do well. Regardless of what block they are in.
May 12, 201114 yr Author It could be every 5 tracks, which sounds reasonable if there is 25 tracks, its only a hunch though It isn't. There are two or three ad breaks. Moldova getting 15 has really help Germany seal a respectable finish for Lena. I will keep my hope that common sense prevails and France do not win while Sweden do well. Regardless of what block they are in. Who'd have thought this time three years ago we'd be realistically predicting a top three of France, the UK and Germany? http://www.moopy.org.uk/forums/images/smilies/grin.gif
May 12, 201114 yr Who'd have thought this time three years ago we'd be realistically predicting a top three of France, the UK and Germany? http://www.moopy.org.uk/forums/images/smilies/grin.gif Who'd have thought 3 years ago that the UK and Germany would send something WORTHY of a top 3 finish. The French still haven't, unless they get him to drive on stage in a Renault
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