So, as many commentators have been predicting for a long time, the riots we saw in Athens last spring look like a tea party in comparison to what's brewing now, with the Greek government about to default on its debts, European governments with no idea what the hell to do about it, and some even saying the Euro currency could be on the verge of collapse...

 

The most interesting thing about this is that, in Greece, the right-wing party are actually more anti-cuts than the left-wing party that's currently in power - the Right come at it from a nationalist point of view ("how dare these foreign countries order us around"), while the Left don't want to fall out of favour with the EU. One thing should be clear by now though: forcing yet more cuts on Greeks is not only unfair on them, it won't even work - their debt problems have only got WORSE since their first cuts programme began a year ago, because their economy has predictably ground to a halt.

 

What they really should have done a year ago is that France/Germany (and the UK) should've just given Greece unconditional financial backing, not forced such an unreasonable level of cuts on them, certainly not set such harsh interest rates that were never going to be met, and just let them pay it back in their own time. They were too scared of the reaction in their own countries if they did that though... and now it's probably too late. I really don't see how Greece can avoid defaulting on its debts and leaving the Eurozone, and resuming its own currency, along with Ireland and Portugal... which might not actually be a bad thing in the long run for Portugal and Greece, because they actually have quite strong economic bases which could flourish if they're not being forced to make cuts (though Ireland has nothing except the financial sectr, which obviously isn't about to recover anytime soon if they're defaulting on debts - so they could be in real trouble).

 

One last thing: this whole mess should've finally taught George Osborne that austerity when the economy is so weak is fatally flawed. But what are the odds he'll get the message? :rolleyes:

I'm quite scared actually. The repercussions on the British economy will be MASSIVE if the Eurozone goes under. I genuinely think we're on the verge of a new Great Depression if the right decisions aren't made on the Greek crisis - and I think the banking pressures to ensure they can still lend to Greece risk-free are too strong to allow the right decisions to be made.

 

I'm quite glad actually that I'm in university now. If there is a collapse, it's likely I'll have a guaranteed income from my student loans for the next two years. It's everyone else who I feel incredibly worried for at this rate.

I'm quite scared actually. The repercussions on the British economy will be MASSIVE if the Eurozone goes under. I genuinely think we're on the verge of a new Great Depression if the right decisions aren't made on the Greek crisis - and I think the banking pressures to ensure they can still lend to Greece risk-free are too strong to allow the right decisions to be made.

 

I'm quite glad actually that I'm in university now. If there is a collapse, it's likely I'll have a guaranteed income from my student loans for the next two years. It's everyone else who I feel incredibly worried for at this rate.

 

No, I agree, it IS terrifying... and, tbh, I think it has to be a result of governments bottling it when it came to sorting out the finanical crisis back in 2008, because, after everything that's happened, the world is STILL being held to ransom by the banks and big finance (if bondholders don't get their money from Greece, etc etc). It's starting to look like the huge shock that happened in 2008, when we all thought we'd escaped a complete collapse, wasn't averted, it was merely delayed.

 

Although I think of myself as like a realist, it is starting to look to me as though maybe capitalism in its current form can't be saved, and that the world might just have to find some other way of doing things... or if it is going to be saved, then (without wanting to sound too party-politically-cliched), it really is going to have to come from governments stimulating the economy, not from the endless austerity.

Well, I thought the death of Thatcherite economics and the birth of a new capitalism was inevitable within months in 2008. I wouldn't count on big finance giving up so easily even if there is another crash - after all, if there is another crash, if there are any cards left to hold people from big finance will have them.

It's a wonderful time to have a finance related degree :drama:

 

 

I think you are both quite correct in that unless something major is done now and done properly then Europe's fucked. If Greece defaults on it's loans then a lot of EU counties stand to lose millions, which won't be good for those countries who have utter dip$h!ts in their treasuries [Read Osbourne, George] who are just going to force even harsher cuts through on their own country stagnating and killing those economies.

 

I can see, at the very least, Greece and the UK fighting it out to be the first EU country to double dip [Have Greece even pulled themselves out of a recession yet?]

It's a wonderful time to have a finance related degree :drama:

I think you are both quite correct in that unless something major is done now and done properly then Europe's fucked. If Greece defaults on it's loans then a lot of EU counties stand to lose millions, which won't be good for those countries who have utter dip$h!ts in their treasuries [Read Osbourne, George] who are just going to force even harsher cuts through on their own country stagnating and killing those economies.

 

I can see, at the very least, Greece and the UK fighting it out to be the first EU country to double dip [Have Greece even pulled themselves out of a recession yet?]

Greece had a 0.2% growth in Q1, but I think they've been dipping in and out for a while now. Surely someone else like Portugal/Ireland has managed it by now?

Greece had a 0.2% growth in Q1, but I think they've been dipping in and out for a while now. Surely someone else like Portugal/Ireland has managed it by now?

Ireland had a small 2 quarter growth, and thus have technically double dipped but is current forecast to have rather a brilliant 2011.

 

Portugal have been f***ed for a long time and I can't seem to find GDP figures on them.

Ireland had a small 2 quarter growth, and thus have technically double dipped but is current forecast to have rather a brilliant 2011.

The bolded bit is sarcasm, right? :lol:

France and Germany are exposed to Greek debt far more than any other European country, which is why they're scrambling to find a solution. Had they not been tits up in contributing to the Greek crisis then I don't think they'd have cared.

 

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/1598/ttheurope22170081a.jpg

 

The Greeks and the Irish (and probably the Portuguese) are being shafted by the EU. Greece is bending over backwards to try and fix this and the EU just keep playing hard ball. Thankfully Ireland's new government have a backbone and have told France and Germany to get stuffed [which Germany did last night - yipeee!]. All we need now is for Sarkozy to back down and then perhaps the EU states can work together without political motives. I'm not going to mention Ireland again because that's a whole other topic and don't even get me STARTED on Sarkozy!

 

 

Ireland had a small 2 quarter growth, and thus have technically double dipped but is current forecast to have rather a brilliant 2011.

 

Portugal have been f***ed for a long time and I can't seem to find GDP figures on them.

 

Did Ireland ever actually LEAVE recession in the first place?!

 

 

The Greeks and the Irish (and probably the Portuguese) are being shafted by the EU. Greece is bending over backwards to try and fix this and the EU just keep playing hard ball. Thankfully Ireland's new government have a backbone and have told France and Germany to get stuffed [which Germany did last night - yipeee!]. All we need now is for Sarkozy to back down and then perhaps the EU states can work together without political motives. I'm not going to mention Ireland again because that's a whole other topic and don't even get me STARTED on Sarkozy!

 

And as that diagram shows, the UK also has huge exposure and will be hugely affected if Greece defaults, despite us not being in the Eurozone - which is why it's so ridiculous that our government is just sitting back and saying "nothing to do with us" - although I'm still not 100% sure what the solution is, and my opinion on it keeps changing, our government needs to be involved in the discussions.

 

I agree with you completely that it's disgusting the way France and Germany have treated Greece/Ireland/Portugal. In many ways, the bailout conditions they're forcing with its punitive interest rates are even harsher than the reparations Germany were forced to repay to Britain, France and the States after World War 1 - so you'd think they'd've learnt their lesson. And it's also insulting for people like Boris Johnson to lazily characterise Ireland and Greece's problems as being down to lazy workers in that country or governments overspending, when the real cause for Ireland was almost solely the bankers, and in Greece it was the fact that the top earners in society have not been paying anywhere near enough tax (had they had a proper tax regime, they wouldn't have much indebtedness at all).

Did Ireland ever actually LEAVE recession in the first place?!

And as that diagram shows, the UK also has huge exposure and will be hugely affected if Greece defaults, despite us not being in the Eurozone - which is why it's so ridiculous that our government is just sitting back and saying "nothing to do with us" - although I'm still not 100% sure what the solution is, and my opinion on it keeps changing, our government needs to be involved in the discussions.

 

I agree with you completely that it's disgusting the way France and Germany have treated Greece/Ireland/Portugal. In many ways, the bailout conditions they're forcing with its punitive interest rates are even harsher than the reparations Germany were forced to repay to Britain, France and the States after World War 1 - so you'd think they'd've learnt their lesson. And it's also insulting for people like Boris Johnson to lazily characterise Ireland and Greece's problems as being down to lazy workers in that country or governments overspending, when the real cause for Ireland was almost solely the bankers, and in Greece it was the fact that the top earners in society have not been paying anywhere near enough tax (had they had a proper tax regime, they wouldn't have much indebtedness at all).

 

Ireland "officially" left recession last year, I think. But things are just getting worse. Unemployment fell in the first quarter, but that was more to do with mass-emigration than anything else. I think the UK still having Sterling will cushion the blow slightly if the Euro did go under, but the exposure to Greek debt is worrying. Thankfully you're not as deep in it as France and Germany. Portugal, on the other hand...

 

The characterizations against Greece and Ireland are quite tiring. The majority of the population in both countries paid their taxes and worked like every other European, but France and Germany seem to think we did nothing and spent everything. It's really a bit rich for the likes of France who used to operate on a 35-hour work week! :P Not to mention that Sarkozy's attack on Ireland's tax regime has been criticized by the German media when they found out that businesses in Ireland pay huge taxes, while in France they receive hefty incentives and end up paying around 30% tax on their net income (Ireland pays about 48%, and Germany 40%). The whole corporate tax argument used by the French is hilarious because their effective tax rate is much lower than our's and it's been proven that even if we did raise it the multinationals would still choose to do business in Ireland due to the better social factors. Germany stated last night that they now support Ireland's search for a reduced interest rate on its bailout. Now it's only France in the way. As usual.

 

I really hope Greece can overcome this. It must be terrifying for them. Ireland is bad, but nowhere near as bad as Greece and even people here are worried sick. This whole thing has turned one of Europe's most pro-EU countries into one of the most anti-Eu countries in a matter of months. And to think people criticized the "No" camp during Lisbon, and the No camp turned out to be right on most issues! :lol:

The whole idea of the Euro going under really makes a mockery of the people in this country wanting a referendum on membership in the EU - they seem to think WE'RE getting the worst deal of the lot when in reality we're kind of lucky that we're not in the Eurozone as however bad the consequences of a collapse would be for us, those with the Euro are stuck with a currency they can't devalue. Saying that, if we continue down our current route we're still buggered as we won't be able to devalue the pound if the Euro is worth even less.

 

^^I know that's an incredibly simplistic viewpoint btw, I'm just dredging up what I can remember of one unit's work of A-Level Economic Geography :lol:

The bolded bit is sarcasm, right? :lol:

Of course :lol: Although they are forecast to have GDP growth this year, well they were anyway.

 

 

France and Germany are exposed to Greek debt far more than any other European country, which is why they're scrambling to find a solution. Had they not been tits up in contributing to the Greek crisis then I don't think they'd have cared.

 

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/1598/ttheurope22170081a.jpg

 

The Greeks and the Irish (and probably the Portuguese) are being shafted by the EU. Greece is bending over backwards to try and fix this and the EU just keep playing hard ball. Thankfully Ireland's new government have a backbone and have told France and Germany to get stuffed [which Germany did last night - yipeee!]. All we need now is for Sarkozy to back down and then perhaps the EU states can work together without political motives. I'm not going to mention Ireland again because that's a whole other topic and don't even get me STARTED on Sarkozy!

That is a scary graphic.

 

I do feel bad for the Greek government, this would have been much easier for them with less stringent conditions on their loans. Although, there should be conditions in place especially to reduce tax evasion and corruption.

 

 

Did Ireland ever actually LEAVE recession in the first place?!

And as that diagram shows, the UK also has huge exposure and will be hugely affected if Greece defaults, despite us not being in the Eurozone - which is why it's so ridiculous that our government is just sitting back and saying "nothing to do with us" - although I'm still not 100% sure what the solution is, and my opinion on it keeps changing, our government needs to be involved in the discussions.

Technically Ireland had 2 consecutive quarters of growth, technically leaving a recession, before dying on it's arse again.

 

We're probably better off out of the discussions than leaving it to Danny Alexander and George Osborne to represent us. Quite how they managed to get into the treasury I'll never know.

IMO, the best thing Greece can do is to leave the Euro, bring back the Drachma, devalue it and then try to sort itself out from there... Greece is simply not suited to be in the Euro right now, and risks dragging the whole thing down with it... Perhaps if Papandreu hadn't been such a corrupt b'astard, selling off Credit Default Swaps to his cronies at a "bargain basement" price, then Greece may not actually be in such dire straits it is now... The problem with Greece is systemic, and it's particular to them, which is why it really gets on my goat whenever I hear Gideon Osborne banging on about "ooooh, if we're not careful then we're going to end up like Greece"... NO GIDEON, we are NOT and NEVER WERE in danger of being like Greece... You lying, alarmist sack of Tory $h!te..... -_-

We're probably better off out of the discussions than leaving it to Danny Alexander and George Osborne to represent us. Quite how they managed to get into the treasury I'll never know.

 

TBH, I often wonder the same thing.... One is an utter muppet, the other is..... Oh, hang on, they're BOTH utter muppets..... :rolleyes:

 

Watch this guys.. Keiser Report... (Max Keiser is an economics/finance correspondent for Russia Today with a rather, ahem, unique take on the international financial crisis and role of the banks...) This starts off by being about debt in general (with particular reference to personal debts), then moves on specifically to talk about Greece and the massive fraud that was committed by Greek PM Papandreu...

 

Watch this guys.. Keiser Report... (Max Keiser is an economics/finance correspondent for Russia Today with a rather, ahem, unique take on the international financial crisis and role of the banks...) This starts off by being about debt in general (with particular reference to personal debts), then moves on specifically to talk about Greece and the massive fraud that was committed by Greek PM Papandreu...

 

 

RT always have really interesting reports. Some of them are dire, but some are quite good. I'll watch this one tonight. Thanks for the link. :D

 

I'm really torn with Greece at the moment. On the one hand, I don't want to see the Greeks put through any more hardship. On the other hand, if the PM loses the confidence vote and then loses the austerity vote then Ireland and Portgual are screwed. I really wish the EU would just give Greece the money without further austerity measures, thus making everybody happy and boosting confidence all round. Germany and France have a lot to answer for. There are millions of people in the PIIGS that are suffering and it's all a game to them. I'll be studying in France during their presidential election next year and I'll weep in Sarkozy is elected for a second term.

RT always have really interesting reports. Some of them are dire, but some are quite good. I'll watch this one tonight. Thanks for the link. :D

 

I'm really torn with Greece at the moment. On the one hand, I don't want to see the Greeks put through any more hardship. On the other hand, if the PM loses the confidence vote and then loses the austerity vote then Ireland and Portgual are screwed. I really wish the EU would just give Greece the money without further austerity measures, thus making everybody happy and boosting confidence all round. Germany and France have a lot to answer for. There are millions of people in the PIIGS that are suffering and it's all a game to them. I'll be studying in France during their presidential election next year and I'll weep in Sarkozy is elected for a second term.

 

He should lose the confidence vote though. I would say that he's done a lot of damage to Greece just himself... I really do think that Greece should just drop out of the Euro and sort themselves out, because another loan/bailout will just create more problems for them, they will default sooner or later, there is no "if" about it... I agree that Germany and France have a lot to answer for though, essentially the Greek Debt is actually not Greek at all... I also think that Ireland, Spain and Portugal should do what Iceland did...

He should lose the confidence vote though. I would say that he's done a lot of damage to Greece just himself... I really do think that Greece should just drop out of the Euro and sort themselves out, because another loan/bailout will just create more problems for them, they will default sooner or later, there is no "if" about it... I agree that Germany and France have a lot to answer for though, essentially the Greek Debt is actually not Greek at all... I also think that Ireland, Spain and Portugal should do what Iceland did...

 

The thing is though, the Socialists and Papandreou weren't in power during the majority of the boom years, and they won the election when things went bad for Greece a couple of years ago. It seems that a lot of the damage could've been done when the opposition were in power, so Papandreou's unpopularity abroad seems to be misguided to a certain extent. I support the protests against austerity, but people need to point the blame at the opposition also, as they were the ones who obviously supported the awful tax regime which operated in Greece during those years. Unfortunately Ireland and the rest can't do an "Iceland". Iceland didn't have to answer to anyone to, so they could afford to default on their obligations. I'd love for Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal to leave the EU altogether, as it is quite clear that it's moving in the wrong direction completely.

The thing is though, the Socialists and Papandreou weren't in power during the majority of the boom years, and they won the election when things went bad for Greece a couple of years ago. It seems that a lot of the damage could've been done when the opposition were in power, so Papandreou's unpopularity abroad seems to be misguided to a certain extent. I support the protests against austerity, but people need to point the blame at the opposition also, as they were the ones who obviously supported the awful tax regime which operated in Greece during those years. Unfortunately Ireland and the rest can't do an "Iceland". Iceland didn't have to answer to anyone to, so they could afford to default on their obligations. I'd love for Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal to leave the EU altogether, as it is quite clear that it's moving in the wrong direction completely.

 

But it was in 2009 that this rather nebulous affair with the alleged sale of 1.3 billion Euros of Credit Default Swaps is supposed to have happened though....

 

That's what I meant, the PIGS should leave the Eurozone and concentrate on sorting themselves out, go back to their original currencies and devalue them...... And then they can just tell the French and German banks to "f**k off" like Iceland did....