I was getting a bit nervous because South Dublin rejected Norris. Didn't expect them to support him given the demographic of that area. But I knew Dublin City would support him because it's Labour territory and they tend to go by what the people want. Fine Gael are such cowards as well. "I abstain from this vote" - then what the hell are you doing on a Country Council?! :lol:

This is getting ridiculously hard to call. Norris was considered a non-runner up until this morning after last night's TV debate. Higgins is still in the lead. McGuinness outed Sean Gallagher LIVE on TV last night. He dealt the killer blow (he exposed more of his Fianna Fail links) and now his popularity has plummeted! Delighted! :D So it looks like it's a run-off between Higgins, Norris, and McGuinness. Higgins' transfers will go to Norris and vice versa. Can't see McGuinness picking up non-Sinn Fein votes.

 

Prediction:

 

Higgins 40%

Norris 35%

McGuinness 25%

 

Norris and Higgins can easily be swapped around. Exciting!

Should be interesting. When do they start counting? Do they do it overnight or wait until Friday morning? Do they report by constituency?

There hasn't been a presidential election since 1997 so I can't remember exactly what happens. We should know the result by Friday night or Saturday morning.

 

My previous prediction is now void because I've just remembered you can't have a run-off between 3 candidates. :lol: It goes something like Count 1, then the top two go to the second count and then we have a winner. I hope it comes down to Higgins v Norris. I've always liked Higgins but he's grown on me even more after the debates. Norris' performance last night was fantastic. I'd be really happy with either, tbh!

 

I'm really hoping results come in by constituency. It would be really interesting to see how each area votes and I'd like to see what backwards constituency will vote for Dana. :P

 

Edit: There are also two referenda and a by-election, so it will be an exciting day!

You can have a run-off between three candidates if one of them gets 50% :P I can't see that happening though. I'm sure there will be some areas daft enough to vote for Dana in large numbers.

 

What are the referenda about?

Oh ok, I'm only just used to the PR system and now I have to get my head around AV with seven candidates. :lol:

 

Amendment 29 is a proposal to repeal the ban on reducing judicial salaries. Amendment 30, if approved, will give the Oireachtas committees "full investigative powers" when investigating matters of public interest. The latter is rather confusing as it involves the Abbeylara inquiry. Basically, back in 2000, the guards shot and killed a psychiatric patient or something and the Oireachtas committees investigated it and it then came to light that the committees didn't have the right to investigate such a matter.

 

The Dublin West by-election will be interesting, too. There are a lot of candidates running and it's wide open.

I shall have to keep an eye on the RTE site :)

Forgive me for being slow but why is Norris a frontrunner now!? The last poll I saw had him at 9%! He can't have been that impressive in the debate last night? That was the first one I missed.

 

Realistically I'm hoping for a Higgins win but ideally I'd like Norris to win. I like him a lot. Also:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZugM-RpR_BE

 

I was sent this on Facebook this evening. :lol:

I'm going by "who won last night's debate?" polls, rather than "who will you vote for?" polls. The latter aren't reliable for Presidential elections at all. Roche was scoring in the high 30s in opinion polls in 1997 and only managed to receive around 7% on the polling day. The Journal hold regular polls after the debates and Norris was near the bottom for weeks, and now he's third with around 20% (McGuinness on 24% and Higgins on 32%). Gallagher was topping the polls for ages and has now fallen flat on his arse after that cringe-worthy performance during the last debate. :lol: Their polls are excellent because the site has a broad demographic (and are very accurate, if I remember correctly - although it does underestimate the right-wing vote a small bit), so you do get a good idea of opinion. Norris was very witty and made some excellent points in the final debate, and from what I've been reading he has regained a lot of support. He hasn't been coming across very well over the past month but I think people are remembering why they liked him to begin with.

 

 

"He looks extremely bland! Is he a Banker?" :lol:

Oh right! Cool. Norris stealing it at the death would be amaze. Poll on Irish people abroad puts Higgins at 40% and Gallagher at 10% too. Norris on 25% if I remember correctly.

 

That interview is great. I love that he didn't recognise Rihanna and then went on a rant about how lovely Imelda May is.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Higgins will get it. I just hope it's Norris that's 2nd and not McGuinness!

 

Voting is underway and the counting will begin at 9am tomorrow. :D

Voting is now closed. Boxes will be emptied in counting centers in each constituency at 9am tomorrow (this leads me to believe that the results will come in by constituency). The first task is to separate the Presidential ballots from the referenda ballots (and the Dublin-West ballots). The Presidential and Dublin-West votes will be counted first. After the results of both, the counting will begin on the referenda ballots.

Are there any exit poll numbers out at the moment?

No sign of any exit poll on the RTE website. Nothing on the Irish Times either so I'm guessing that means no exit polls.

There was an unconfirmed Tipperary North exit poll floating around Twitter earlier which had Gallagher in the lead. But seeing as they insisted on electing that moron Michael Lowry in February then it's not much to go by.

An exit poll in one area in an election conducted under AV is pretty irrelevant really. No doubt if they chose the right area they could conduct a poll showing Dana doing well but - unless Ireland has suddenly had some sort of mental breakdown - she stands no chance of being elected.

^Well, judging by some of the first tallies I'd say Ireland is bonkers. Looks like Labour is winning in Dublin-West, with Fianna Fail performing very well also(!!!). So far, an overall Presidential tally puts Higgins in the lead, closely followed by Gallagher! Do people back home forget very easily or something? Gallagher is Fianna Fail, and he's been proven to be dodgy and corrupt. WHY are people still supporting this crap?! :mellow:

 

Norris performing steadily (from 3% to 11%), although I expect his figure to jump should he make it into the transfers round.

Finally managed to find the interactive results map on RTÉ. :lol: http://www.rte.ie/news/presidentialelection/results.html

 

Michael D Higgins 45.1%

Seán Gallagher 22.8%

Martin McGuinness 11.1%

David Norris 9.5%

Gay Mitchell 6.3%

Mary Davis 3.1%

Dana Rosemary Scallon 2.0% 

 

Norris is only about three thousand votes behind McGuinness at the moment. Mary and Dana look set to be eliminated after the first count (sometime later this evening). :D Higgins is walking this. Seems most abandoned Norris and Gallagher for Higgins since Monday, which would make sense. Gallagher still has far too many votes though!

 

EDIT: Ah shite. Donegeal NE just came in so McGuinness is ten thousand ahead of Norris. Rage!

 

 

*.*

Good to see Dana in the right place.

Unfortunately Mitchell has just overtaken Norris. D: That definitely wasn't what anybody was expecting! I'm hoping the Galway West results will change that!

 

EDIT: GW just made it worse. :(