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iTunes 'top 10' effect 75 members have voted

  1. 1. iTunes 'top 10' effect - what chart effect does it have?

    • Large
      14
    • Moderate
      40
    • Little
      10
    • None - it is a myth
      5
    • 0

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I voted "large" as it is clear it does exist and exactly for the reasons stated in this thread.

 

Its promotion of the track (in the sense that is is more promotion for each track in the top 10 over everything else from position 11 down) as it is on the front page of iTunes, the page that is seen when you first open up the iTunes store. It's like walking into a record shop and the top 10 albums are right at the front sitting on a big stand - it catches your eye and whilst it won't tempt everyone (probably won't even tempt the majority) it will tempt more than it would were that album sitting at the back of the store where it wouldn't be noticed unless it was specifically searched for.

 

A similar thing happens when new release singles/albums are put on the front page of iTunes late on a Monday - they suddenly start shooting up even more than they were prior to that. Then when they are removed from the front page the folllowing Monday, they start to drop really quickly.

 

Another similar thing happens when a song hits #1 on iTunes - it becomes "more visible" on the front page as it is in bigger font / single cover picture is bigger - the song almost always, without fail, starts to pull away from the #2 far quicker than the speed it was catching the previous incumbent #1.

 

What is also clear is that vidcapper is also talking nonsense - can that be added to the poll as an option?

 

And also, I'm sure it can be proven statistically - for example, the gap between 10 and 11 on iTunes in popbar terms is almost always WAY more than the equivalent gaps from #9-#10 and #10-#11 respectively. So that alone proves it beyond any statistical doubt; I'm sure if someone actually analysed the pop bars of #1-#20 for a month it would prove it without a shadow of a doubt.

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I voted "large" as it is clear it does exist and exactly for the reasons stated in this thread.

 

Its promotion of the track (in the sense that is is more promotion for each track in the top 10 over everything else from position 11 down) as it is on the front page of iTunes, the page that is seen when you first open up the iTunes store. It's like walking into a record shop and the top 10 albums are right at the front sitting on a big stand - it catches your eye and whilst it won't tempt everyone (probably won't even tempt the majority) it will tempt more than it would were that album sitting at the back of the store where it wouldn't be noticed unless it was specifically searched for.

 

A similar thing happens when new release singles/albums are put on the front page of iTunes late on a Monday - they suddenly start shooting up even more than they were prior to that. Then when they are removed from the front page the folllowing Monday, they start to drop really quickly.

 

Another similar thing happens when a song hits #1 on iTunes - it becomes "more visible" on the front page as it is in bigger font / single cover picture is bigger - the song almost always, without fail, starts to pull away from the #2 far quicker than the speed it was catching the previous incumbent #1.

 

What is also clear is that vidcapper is also talking nonsense - can that be added to the poll as an option?

 

And also, I'm sure it can be proven statistically - for example, the gap between 10 and 11 on iTunes in popbar terms is almost always WAY more than the equivalent gaps from #9-#10 and #10-#11 respectively. So that alone proves it beyond any statistical doubt; I'm sure if someone actually analysed the pop bars of #1-#20 for a month it would prove it without a shadow of a doubt.

 

Thank You spiidey, agree with all of that, its right infront of us how can it be denied?

and definitely the bolded bit :heehee:

Edited by Karma

not meaning to echo others, but it clearly does exist, I actually don't recall the last time a song went in at 10 and then stayed there, even some songs that peaked at 10 officially have got to around 7 or 8 on Itunes before dropping off, it may not be the full on reason, but there is absolutely no way you can argue that it doesn't exist at all

 

 

The last song to peak at 10 on iTunes was 'Set Fire To The Rain'. It definitely doesn't happen very often.

It's pretty rare for songs to peak at #10 on the official chart as well. 2011 has had:

 

23 #1s (22 excluding Matt Cardle)

10 #2s

11 #3s

9 #4s

6 #5s

8 #6s

1 #7 (seriously - 'Badman Riddim (Jump)' is the ONLY 2011 song that's peaked at #7! :o)

12 #8s

5 #9s

4 #10s

 

And of the #10s at least 3 of them were not top 10 on iTunes the whole week (Save The World, F**kin' Perfect and Bass Down Low - not sure about Louder)

I voted moderate.

 

It does exist. I didn't know of Emeli Sandé until I saw "Heaven" in the top 10 on iTunes...

The last song to peak at 10 on iTunes was 'Set Fire To The Rain'. It definitely doesn't happen very often.

 

The only other one I can think of this year is Skinny Love by Birdy.

HA... :lol: I like the last option, I think I vote for that.
  • Author

Would whoever added that last option please remove it *AT ONCE* - I am not happy about it! :angry:

It's not so much what was added, but that it was added without my permission!

 

Situation now corrected - thank you. :)

Edited by vidcapper

  • Author
Religion & iTunes..hmm a little different.

 

Yeah Bre i'm sure i've seen this thread before.

 

I may have discussed it b4, but I don't recall ever doing a poll on it.

Would whoever added that last option please remove it *AT ONCE* - I am not happy about it! :angry:

It's not so much what was added, but that it was added without my permission!

 

Situation now corrected - thank you. :)

 

What was added?

Not 'Vidcapper is talking nonsense' by any chance :)

And also, I'm sure it can be proven statistically - for example, the gap between 10 and 11 on iTunes in popbar terms is almost always WAY more than the equivalent gaps from #9-#10 and #10-#11 respectively. So that alone proves it beyond any statistical doubt; I'm sure if someone actually analysed the pop bars of #1-#20 for a month it would prove it without a shadow of a doubt.

 

One snapshot proves nothing but the popbars right at this very moment show the effect very nicely.

Edited by Col1967

  • Author
What was added?

Not 'Vidcapper is talking nonsense' by any chance :)

 

As I mentioned before, it was not *what* was added that was the problem, but the fact that someone had 'hacked' into my post to do so!

 

One snapshot proves nothing but the popbars right at this very moment show the effect very nicely.

 

Ah, but thanks to the records I keep for my YTD sales estimates, I can *see* there is no unusual gap between the average sales for #10 and the positions just below, which you'd expect to see if there *was* an iT top 10 effect :

 

Pos Av.Sales

5 41800

6 37800

7 35200

8 32200

9 30600

10 28000

11 25800

12 24200

13 22400

14 20800

15 19800

 

If these are plotted on a graph, the curve is nice & smooth.

 

Ah, but thanks to the records I keep for my YTD sales estimates, I can *see* there is no unusual gap between the average sales for #10 and the positions just below, which you'd expect to see if there *was* an iT top 10 effect :

 

Pos Av.Sales

5 41800

6 37800

7 35200

8 32200

9 30600

10 28000

11 25800

12 24200

13 22400

14 20800

15 19800

 

If these are plotted on a graph, the curve is nice & smooth.

You can't compare the iTunes chart to the official chart. They work on two different methods, plus the official chart includes sales from other sources.

 

Not forgetting there are songs that have multiple versions on iTunes (and on other download sites) for example and they add up to the sales in the official chart.

 

So what you're saying has nothing to do with the iTunes top 10 effect!

  • Author
You can't compare the iTunes chart to the official chart. They work on two different methods, plus the official chart includes sales from other sources.

 

Not forgetting there are songs that have multiple versions on iTunes (and on other download sites) for example and they add up to the sales in the official chart.

 

So what you're saying has nothing to do with the iTunes top 10 effect!

 

You've missed the point - if the iT top 10 was as significant as claimed, then it would show up on the overall chart, since iT sales make up ~2/3rds of it...

As I mentioned before, it was not *what* was added that was the problem, but the fact that someone had 'hacked' into my post to do so!

 

I didn't know you could add something to somebody else's post.

I think the moderators would take a very dim view of that.....

Ah, but thanks to the records I keep for my YTD sales estimates, I can *see* there is no unusual gap between the average sales for #10 and the positions just below, which you'd expect to see if there *was* an iT top 10 effect :

 

Pos Av.Sales

5 41800

6 37800

7 35200

8 32200

9 30600

10 28000

11 25800

12 24200

13 22400

14 20800

15 19800

 

If these are plotted on a graph, the curve is nice & smooth.

 

Of course iTunes isn't the entire download market let alone the market as a whole so the effect (if it exists) could simply be drowned out.

This has got me intrigued now. I have seen people talking about this effect but never really considered it much. I think it would be an interesting statistical exercise to work out the difference (divisor method) between no.9 & 10, 10 &11 and 11&12. I'll do this every evening for a month and we'll see.

You've missed the point - if the iT top 10 was as significant as claimed, then it would show up on the overall chart, since iT sales make up ~2/3rds of it...

No, I didn't miss the point, I still stick to my post. Plus I voted for moderate as I think according to the pop bars (which IS a proof) the top 10 effect exist but not significantly.

 

But as the iTunes chart is a 24 or 48 hours rolling chart we don't know the exact sales. So the top 10 effect can be 2-3k or can be only some hundreds so the effect can vanish in the official chart because of the other sales sources there.

You can't compare the actual chart to iTunes, the top 10 effect does exist but it happens at different parts of the week. Look at Lighters, it climbed into the iTunes top 10 with around 48 hours of the chart week left, it's shot up to #7 and the number 11 is already only selling ~70% of it, but because it was behind for 5 days of the week means it's probably still only going to end the week in #11-14.

 

What would be interesting to analyse is how long a song takes to get from 10-20% behind #10 to being level, and then comparing how long it takes for it to reverse once overtaken. I'd put money on the gap widening quicker than it closes over 80% of the time.

  • Author
No, I didn't miss the point, I still stick to my post. Plus I voted for moderate as I think according to the pop bars (which IS a prove) the top 10 effect exist but not significantly.

 

But as the iTunes chart is a 24 or 48 hours rolling chart we don't know the exact sales. So the top 10 effect can be 2-3k or can be only some hundreds so the effect can vanish in the official chart because of the other sales sources there.

 

To clarify a little more :

 

I intended this thread to be about whether the itunes effect had a significant effect on the overall chart, not just itunes own. Most people here seem to agree that it does on the latter, but it appears as though it doesn't on the former.

To clarify a little more :

 

I intended this thread to be about whether the itunes effect had a significant effect on the overall chart, not just itunes own. Most people here seem to agree that it does on the latter, but it appears as though it doesn't on the former.

Her is an example:

 

Will Young - Jealousy last week:

 

Mon iTunes: 16

Tue iTunes: 18

Tue mids: 13

 

Wed iTunes: 12

Wed mids: 12

 

Thu iTunes: 10

Thu mids: 11

 

Fri iTunes: 6

Fri mids: 11

 

Sat iTunes: 6

Sun Official chart: 9

 

The climb of Jealousy on iTunes clearly had a moderate effect on the official chart, and from #13 from Tuesday climbed to 9 on the official chart by Sunday.

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