Saturday update

4-6 Military Wives Choir

9-4 X Factor Winner

10-1 Nirvana

16-1 Dirty Mavis *

25-1 Arianna Morgan

25-1 Cast of Jersey Shore *

25-1 McFly

33-1 Alex Day *

40-1 Mariah Carey & Justin Bieber

40-1 Cast of The Only Way is Essex

40-1 Wombles

40-1 Stacy Solomon

40-1 Wham!

40-1 Chas & Dave featuring Karl Pilkington

40-1 Smith & Burrows *

40-1 Smiths

50-1 Bar

* - odds only quoted by one bookie so not properly representative

 

Military Wives Choir holding steady, more slight drifting for both the X-Factor winner and Nirvana. (Stan James go 8-1 anyone other than the two favourites). Nothing seems to be making much of a move from behind

 

i think the Military Wives Choir will struggle more than people think, it isn't aimed at the download market that makes up most of the market. i cant see it flogging say 150k cd's. rage was a success against the x factor because it seemed cool and 'alternative' to young people who downloaded it in buckets full. just don't see Military Wives Choir having the same impact.

There was a minor Twitterstorm last night to get 'Cannonball' (not the Damian Rice song) by The Breeders to number one - so might see that getting high odds as an outsider. I guess the Damian Rice original has to be in the running now too.

Edited December 12, 201113 yr by richie

I'm baffled that Coldplay are still 100/1....

 

I put £1 on them on Saturday as they climbed to the top of iTunes as an outside shot. I don't think it'll happen, but 100/1 is superb value for a song which is certain to be top 5 at the minimum.

 

Monday update

4-6 Military Wives Choir

2-1 Little Mix

10-1 Nirvana

20-1 Damien Rice

25-1 McFly

40-1 Ariana Morgan

40-1 Wombles

40-1 Chas & Dave featuring Karl Pilkington

40-1 Smiths

50-1 Bar

 

Only real moves involve Little Mix being 2-1 from 9-4 before winning, and Damien Rice appearing near the top of the list for the first time. Most of the previously quoted outsiders are now available at much bigger odds - e.g. Wham! now 80-1, Cast of the Only Way Is Essex 50-1 or disappeared completely (e.g. Dirty Mavis & Cast Of Jersey Shore)

Are there odds for Leona's Hurt?

Are there odds for Leona's Hurt?

 

 

Yep - 100-1.

Joey Barton (footballer for anyone that doesn't know) is trying to plan some sort of campaign to get a song to Christmas #1

 

Not sure how much influence he would have, but he seems pretty serious about getting involved judging by his tweets @Joey7Barton

He's supporting the Military Wives Choir

 

How well will this do?

Edited December 12, 201113 yr by ukchartstatsfan

Depends on how well the cd sells and how far xfactor drops next week - we basically have to wait to see how much LM sell this week!

For those who doubt that Military Wives will be No.1 on Christmas Day:,

 

Read this:,

 

http://tinyurl.com/brtk6b8

 

It has been obvious for around 2 Weeks. Their Single was No.1 in the Amazon Top 100

- on Pre-Orders alone. It is still in the Top 3. The little Mix Single is just inside the Top 40

of that Top 100. How much more evidence do doubters need?

 

For those who doubt that Military Wives will be No.1 on Christmas Day:,

 

Read this:,

 

http://tinyurl.com/brtk6b8

 

It has been obvious for around 2 Weeks. Their Single was No.1 in the Amazon Top 100

- on Pre-Orders alone. It is still in the Top 3. The little Mix Single is just inside the Top 40

of that Top 100. How much more evidence do doubters need?

 

128,047 say differently.

128,047 say differently.

 

I assume that's the number of Nirvana facebook campaigners?

 

a) it hasn't risen much in the last fornight, has the impetus run out of the campaign?

 

b) 128K isn't going to be anywhere near enough.

 

Pretty much seeing the xmas top four as this (with sales predictions);

 

1. Military Wives with Gareth Malone (NEW) (300k+)

2. Little Mix (1) (200k)

3. Nirvana (Re-entry) (80k)

4. Coldplay (2) (65k)

 

No way will a song that's looking likely to shift over 100k of CD singles NOT manage to appeal in a large way to downloaders too, as unlikely as it seems. I can see Wherever You Are going to at least #2 on iTunes anyway...

 

Really don't see this Nirvana campaign doing much better than The Trashmen did last year, for a start the idea of rebelling against X Factor is completely redundant when firstly it's been done, worked and proven successfully before and secondly there's a bonafide genuine alternative contender this year, why not just download that instead if you want to go against X Factor? The RATM group had maximum 50% of the members buy the song (probably way less because a lot of people downloaded multiple versions), and I'm sure the Nirvana group will attract a similar, or even lower, conversion rate. Little Mix will beat them comprehensively but I doubt that even they will manage to get past the Military Wives.

Pretty much seeing the xmas top four as this (with sales predictions);

 

1. Military Wives with Gareth Malone (NEW) (300k+)

2. Little Mix (1) (200k)

3. Nirvana (Re-entry) (80k)

4. Coldplay (2) (65k)

 

No way will a song that's looking likely to shift over 100k of CD singles NOT manage to appeal in a large way to downloaders too, as unlikely as it seems. I can see Wherever You Are going to at least #2 on iTunes anyway...

 

Really don't see this Nirvana campaign doing much better than The Trashmen did last year, for a start the idea of rebelling against X Factor is completely redundant when firstly it's been done, worked and proven successfully before and secondly there's a bonafide genuine alternative contender this year, why not just download that instead if you want to go against X Factor? The RATM group had maximum 50% of the members buy the song (probably way less because a lot of people downloaded multiple versions), and I'm sure the Nirvana group will attract a similar, or even lower, conversion rate. Little Mix will beat them comprehensively but I doubt that even they will manage to get past the Military Wives.

Are the proceeds from Nirvana going to charity? If so, which one(s)?

 

I ask because I think a significant proportion of the people who are virulently anti X-Factor may also be a little uneasy about supporting any charity to do with the military - as is the case with the Gareth Malone release. The Rage proceeds went to Shelter, a cause likely to be supported by such people.

Are the proceeds from Nirvana going to charity? If so, which one(s)?

 

I ask because I think a significant proportion of the people who are virulently anti X-Factor may also be a little uneasy about supporting any charity to do with the military - as is the case with the Gareth Malone release. The Rage proceeds went to Shelter, a cause likely to be supported by such people.

 

They are, children's charity Rhythmix - which was obviously cleverly chosen because of the whole Little Mix name change saga that they were involved in :lol: I can see what you mean but regardless I don't see the Nirvana song going any higher than #3 - did the proceeds from Surfin' Bird go to charity last year does anyone know?

Pretty much seeing the xmas top four as this (with sales predictions);

 

1. Military Wives with Gareth Malone (NEW) (300k+)

2. Little Mix (1) (200k)

3. Nirvana (Re-entry) (80k)

4. Coldplay (2) (65k)

 

No way will a song that's looking likely to shift over 100k of CD singles NOT manage to appeal in a large way to downloaders too, as unlikely as it seems. I can see Wherever You Are going to at least #2 on iTunes anyway...

 

Really don't see this Nirvana campaign doing much better than The Trashmen did last year, for a start the idea of rebelling against X Factor is completely redundant when firstly it's been done, worked and proven successfully before and secondly there's a bonafide genuine alternative contender this year, why not just download that instead if you want to go against X Factor? The RATM group had maximum 50% of the members buy the song (probably way less because a lot of people downloaded multiple versions), and I'm sure the Nirvana group will attract a similar, or even lower, conversion rate. Little Mix will beat them comprehensively but I doubt that even they will manage to get past the Military Wives.

 

 

Don't forget The Only Way Is Essex with Last Xmas, apparently all the proceeds of the single are donated to Text Santa, the TV show that is transmitted next Sunday night on ITV :D :drama:

They are, children's charity Rhythmix - which was obviously cleverly chosen because of the whole Little Mix name change saga that they were involved in :lol: I can see what you mean but regardless I don't see the Nirvana song going any higher than #3 - did the proceeds from Surfin' Bird go to charity last year does anyone know?

I think the Surfin' Bird proceeds went to charity, yes.

 

 

Tuesday update

4-6 Military Wives Choir

15-8 Little Mix

10-1 Nirvana

25-1 Damien Rice

33-1 Alex Day *

40-1 Ariana Morgan

40-1 Smith & Burrows *

40-1 Smiths

50-1 Bar

 

* - Odds only quoted by one bookie so may not be truly representative

 

Little Mix in from 2-1 to 15-8 the only (marginal) change among the top three, no other challengers emerging.

 

 

Starting to think that this is a one horse race now to be honest, wouldn't surprise me if Wherever You Are gets the biggest first week sale of the year - the physical will be huge and I actually think that it will manage to ease to #1 on iTunes too.

Starting to think that this is a one horse race now to be honest, wouldn't surprise me if Wherever You Are gets the biggest first week sale of the year - the physical will be huge and I actually think that it will manage to ease to #1 on iTunes too.

 

 

I've just read your Who will get the 2011 Christmas number one? article, interesting reading

I'm not going to believe the hype in this Military Wives thing until I see it actually being as successful as some people are predicting. I still think it's being massively overpredicted and will end up debuting at about #4.