If there's a dark horse this contest, I'm inclined to say it'll be 'Starting Fires'!

Not THAT much of a dark horse, it's getting Top 5 predictions - but I suppose it's never really being put above the dotted line, so I guess it could be called a dark horse.

Didn't Black Butta get odds of like 100/1 or something?

Yeah actually. I completely forgot we already had odds in BJSC 6 :lol:

 

Quotosibb: Beverley Knight - Black Butta 66/1

 

Quotosibb: Beverley Knight - Black Butta 15/1

(However Rich's odds have improved DRASTICALLY (like from constantly being 50/1 to 15/1) in one step)

 

But it wasn't really bottom of the odds at all having odds of ~ 25/1 almost all of the time.

Edited July 14, 201213 yr by Pavel

If there's a dark horse this contest, I'm inclined to say it'll be 'Starting Fires'!

 

 

Not THAT much of a dark horse, it's getting Top 5 predictions - but I suppose it's never really being put above the dotted line, so I guess it could be called a dark horse.

 

It does seem to be gaining momentum, I'm surprised it is getting top 5 predictions seeing as when I entered it, for the first time for an entry of mine since last year I was seriously worried it wouldn't qualify, but now I'm just sitting on the sidelines hoping it'll live up to what it's getting. Any dark horsing above that will be very welcome but I'm not sure how this song could surprise me any more at this point.

i didn't mean lemonade was gonna WIN, i meant apropos of nothing there's gonna be a surprise winner GEEZ

 

but if woodkid can win after shoddy odds who knows! good songs do well in the end.

 

Did woodkid really have that poor odds, I seem to recall it was around 4th-8th for most people, so hardly THAT big a surprise.

At the semi stage most of us had it as a rank outsider - that's probably what leww is referring to. By the time it reached the final I think most of us picked up on the hype and had it down as a top 5, but not a winner.

Very nice odds for Stimela...top 10 would be fantastic.

3/1 #00274E ∙ Isa - Bomb

3/1 Umiiruka ∙ Charli XCX - You're the One

5/1 Altyr Muunilinst ∙ Chalotte Qvale - The Beginning of the End

8/1 Utopia ∙ Us - In the End

10/1 Batidas ∙ Oceana - Endless Summer

12/1 Ashton ∙ Siobhan Donaghy - Medevac

15/1 Fljótavík ∙ Zedd - Spectrum

15/1 PRoJ ∙ Strange Talk - Sexual Lifestyle

15/1 Ramrynia ∙ Heart Machine Service - Get You

20/1 Botanikka ∙ Wynter Gordon - Stimela

25/1 Herzebania ∙ Phase Spin & Matty G feat. Jolene - Let You Go

33/1 Espen ∙ Edith Backlund - Over Now

33/1 Séyetana ∙ Years Away - Starting Fires

33/1 Unovia ∙ Thorunn Antonia - So High

40/1 Ingermanlandia ∙ Ingrid Michaelson - In the Sea

40/1 Kopečka ∙ Diamond Rings - I'm Just Me

40/1 Tinnmark ∙ Ask Embla - Father's Eyes

50/1 FSR Rontvia ∙ ATB feat Ramona Nerra - Never Give Up

50/1 N-Lazone ∙ Radio Killer - Calling You

66/1 Aeroche ∙ Trentemøller / Ane Trolle - Moan

66/1 Daehun ∙ Girls' Generation - Paparazzi

66/1 Hendinia ∙ Doxie Jones - Die For You

66/1 N DNTN ∙ Lemonade - Big Changes

66/1 Numayania ∙ The Young Professionals - Be With You Tonight

66/1 Zechonia ∙ Halestorm - I Miss The Misery

80/1 Elёdan ∙ D E N A - Cash, Diamond Rings, Swimming Pools

80/1 Järkangel ∙ Namie Amuro - Only You

90/1 Skall ∙ Electrovamp - I Don't Like the Vibe in the VIP

100/1 Bignia-Zaragovina ∙ Urban Cone - Kings and Queens

100/1 Usfland ∙ Camo & Krooked ft Ayah Marar - Cross the Line

I very much like those odds Ghosty! :cheer:

 

I'll be doing the averages again tomorrow evening around 6pm before the results start, so please post any new or updated odds by then! :D

Ghosty's odds. :wub:

 

Going to give the tracks one final listen tonight and send my votes once I've decided on my final order of votes. :D

Final odds for the final of CCBJ XLVI from PadisPouwer.ny:

 

2/1 Umiiruka ∙ Charli XCX - You're the One

7/2 #00274E ∙ Isa - Bomb

4/1 Altyr Muunilinst ∙ Chalotte Qvale - The Beginning of the End

5/1 Daehun ∙ Girls' Generation - Paparazzi

6/1 Espen ∙ Edith Backlund - Over Now

---

7/1 Ashton ∙ Siobhan Donaghy - Medevac

15/2 Kopečka ∙ Diamond Rings - I'm Just Me

8/1 Unovia ∙ Thorunn Antonia - So High

10/1 Numayania ∙ The Young Professionals - Be With You Tonight

12/1 FSR Rontvia ∙ ATB feat Ramona Nerra - Never Give Up

25/2 Fljótavík ∙ Zedd - Spectrum

14/1 Elёdan ∙ D E N A - Cash, Diamond Rings, Swimming Pools

15/1 Batidas ∙ Oceana - Endless Summer

16/1 Ramrynia ∙ Heart Machine Service - Get You

18/1 PRoJ ∙ Strange Talk - Sexual Lifestyle

20/1 N DNTN ∙ Lemonade - Big Changes

22/1 Botanikka ∙ Wynter Gordon - Stimela

24/1 Utopia ∙ Us - In the End

25/1 Usfland ∙ Camo & Krooked ft Ayah Marar - Cross the Line

26/1 Aeroche ∙ trentemoller - moan

28/1 Hendinia ∙ Doxie Jones - Die For You

30/1 Ingermanlandia ∙ Ingrid Michaelson - In the Sea

32/1 Séyetana ∙ Years Away - Starting Fires

65/2 Järkangel ∙ Namie Amuro - Only You

100/3 Tinnmark ∙ Ask Embla - Father's Eyes

35/1 Skall ∙ Electrovamp - I Don't Like the Vibe in the VIP

40/1 Bignia-Zaragovina ∙ Urban Cone - Kings and Queens

45/1 N-Lazone ∙ Radio Killer - Calling You

50/1 Zechonia ∙ Halestorm - I Miss The Misery

70/1 Herzebania ∙ Phase Spin & Matty G feat. Jolene - Let You Go

 

Pretty wide open, but I think it will be one of the top 5.

I'M ABOVE THE LINE!!!! Goal complete! :D

 

I'd be happy with bottom five or top ten. I hate being mid-table!

really hope kings & queens does better than predicted!

Same here! But at least one person has predicted it to go top 10 so I really don't know what to think. I've seen it in a couple of personal charts so some support is there.

*cries* I used to be a contender, never anymore. :(

BJSC XLVI FINAL: AVERAGE ODDS!

 

I have calculated an average of all of the 8 sets of odds posted in here for each country. These odds have been rounded to one decimal place, so where countries have the same odds the higher country will actually be more favoured than the other.

 

So, here are the average odds for tonight's final of BJSC XLVI in Ingermanlandia! Remember that these odds are to win the whole contest.

 

01| 4/1 #00274E (Isa - Bomb)

02| 4/1 Umiiruka (Charli XCX - You're the One)

03| 5/1 Altyr Muunilinst (Charlotte Qvale - The Beginning of the End)

04| 11/1 Ashton (Siobhan Donaghy - Medevac)

05| 16/1 Fljótavík (Zedd - Spectrum)

06| 21/1 FSR Rontvia (ATB feat Ramona Nerra - Never Give Up)

07| 22/1 Ramrynia (Heart Machine Service - Get You)

08| 22/1 Séyetana (Years Away - Starting Fires)

09| 24/1 Unovia (Thorunn Antonia - So High)

10| 24/1 Daehun (Girls' Generation - Paparazzi)

 

11| 25/1 Utopia (Us - In the End)

12| 25/1 Kopečka (Diamond Rings - I'm Just Me)

13| 26/1 Batidas (Oceana - Endless Summer)

14| 26/1 Botanikka (Wynter Gordon - Stimela)

15| 28/1 Tinnmark (Ask Embla - Father's Eyes)

16| 28/1 Espen (Edith Backlund - Over Now)

17| 30/1 Hendinia (Doxie Jones - Die For You)

18| 32/1 PRoJ (Strange Talk - Sexual Lifestyle)

19| 33/1 Herzebania (Phase Spin & Matty G feat. Jolene - Let You Go)

20| 36/1 Numayania (The Young Professionals - Be With You Tonight)

 

21| 41/1 Aeroche (Trentemøller / Ane Trolle - Moan)

22| 41/1 Järkangel (Namie Amuro - Only You)

23| 42/1 Elёdan (D E N A - Cash, Diamond Rings, Swimming Pools)

24| 42/1 Ingermanlandia (Ingrid Michaelson - In the Sea)

25| 43/1 N-Lazone (Radio Killer - Calling You)

26| 44/1 Bignia-Zaragovina (Urban Cone - Kings and Queens)

27| 47/1 Usfland (Camo & Krooked ft Ayah Marar - Cross the Line)

28| 48/1 N DNTN (Lemonade - Big Changes)

29| 50/1 Skall (Electrovamp - I Don't Like the Vibe in the VIP)

30| 52/1 Zechonia (Halestorm - I Miss The Misery)

 

And just so you know, the gap between #00274E and Umiiruka at the top was just 0.5! Of course, due to the roundings they are both 4/1.

 

So who do you think is going to outperform their odds and who is going to underperform their odds? And ultimately, who is going to win tonight?

Thanks for the average odds as always Ryan! I had no idea what to think for So High so a rounded picture was really needed seeing as the odds were so scattered! 9th is good though, I am aiming for top 20 so if I can do around about what those odds suggest I'm happy.

 

Pretty low odds for Stimela there though, definitely going to outperform that!

Thanks for the average odds as always Ryan! I had no idea what to think for So High so a rounded picture was really needed seeing as the odds were so scattered! 9th is good though, I am aiming for top 20 so if I can do around about what those odds suggest I'm happy.

 

Pretty low odds for Stimela there though, definitely going to outperform that!

 

That's where the odds can be misleading I find. A song with say 50/1 odds on average can still do well it just doesn't have a hope of winning!

Thanks for the average odds as always Ryan!

 

No problem! It's always interesting to see how the countries change with each set of odds! Hendinia and Batidas were top 10 for quite a long time, but they just lost momentum in the last few sets!

 

Your entry in particular is a hard one to call, it could go top 10, or end up bottom 7 I think. It all depends on how many people are feeling it! :lol:

Then again though, I'm pretty sure a lot of people who do odds rank the songs in the order in which they think it'd finish, rather than in the chance of actually winning the contest.