I agree there are thousands of potentially brilliant usa presidents but they either have to be rich or else appeal to rich interest groups to campaign for votes. it would be lovely if ability was the primary reason to get elected rather than an occasional nice surprise like obama was, who even his detractors have to admit he is genuine and well- intentioned, not in it for his own self interest.

I think Rubio will win the general if he can win the primary. But that's a massive if.

 

Who do you think it will be? I got heavily on Rubio on Betfair a few months ago, on the basis that he had less flaws than any of the others, but I'm having doubts now - the fact he's still flatlining in the polls even after a couple of months of pretty good media attention (especially the hype after one of the debates) makes me think there must be some fundamental problems with him to the Republican selectorate.

 

I'm now thinking Chris Christie might be worth a punt - he's starting to pick up in the New Hampshire polls, and he might have the combination of being moderate enough in policies to satisfy the Republican establishment, while having enough of an abrasive and "strong-man" personality to win over some Trump voters.

Who do you think it will be? I got heavily on Rubio on Betfair a few months ago, on the basis that he had less flaws than any of the others, but I'm having doubts now - the fact he's still flatlining in the polls even after a couple of months of pretty good media attention (especially the hype after one of the debates) makes me think there must be some fundamental problems with him to the Republican selectorate.

 

I'm now thinking Chris Christie might be worth a punt - he's starting to pick up in the New Hampshire polls, and he might have the combination of being moderate enough in policies to satisfy the Republican establishment, while having enough of an abrasive and "strong-man" personality to win over some Trump voters.

You're back! *.*

 

I'm still split between Rubio and Cruz. But if I had to call it now, I'd say Cruz, as I think the base have gone mad and reached the logical conclusion of the GOP's rhetoric for the last 25 years, and the pool of votes that Cruz can easily tap into seems bigger (given he could have a strong argument for calling on the ~40% Trump and Carson have, plus the ~5% Santorum and Huckabee have, plus a good chunk of the ~3% Rand Paul has).

 

That said, I think Rubio's current polling is held back by:

 

a. a lot of the Republican selectorate being undecided/not paying attention yet, and the related:

b. that the moderate vote is split across about eight candidates at the moment.

 

But a Rubio win relies on the assumption that those undecideds are more moderate, which isn't an assumption I'd want to make (even though I think it's likely, as I think you'd probably know if your bread was buttered by now with Trump/Cruz if you had those kinds of views).

 

Also, a lot really depends on how it plays out - if Trump sticks in until the end of the race (which I think he will if he isn't embarrassed in IA/NH/SC/NV) and retains a minimum core support of about 20% (which I think he would), then so long as there are two other candidates in there as well and one of them isn't winning every primary resoundingly, a brokered convention is pretty likely. The RNC will do everything in their power to stop Cruz and Trump, but if Rubio is behind Cruz or Trump by the time it gets to Cleveland then I can't see many of Trump's delegates going to Rubio.

 

That said I'm an increasingly big fan of the idea that this is all an evil plan Trump and Hillary cooked up and that he'll run third party and give Hillary an easy win anyway, as I get the feeling that the Republican base will be more easily fractured by him than the Democratic one (where I can only really see union workers potentially defecting).

 

On Christie, I think he's too poisonous to Republican voters after hugging Obama, and I think the market for 'abrasive but moderate' with voters currently supporting Trump is likely quite small (although fairly big in the electorate at large). I think he's in with a good shot in New Hampshire but I can't see him having the resources to make it out of the SEC primaries on March 1 alive, and I have a feeling Rubio will probably be the most viable 'moderate' (ha!) candidate by that point off the back of Nevada.

I have a feeling Rubio will probably be the most viable 'moderate' (ha!) candidate by that point

Also this is the sentence that confirms the Tea Party won in the end.

 

(Compare and contrast the Labour leadership contest in 2020 when moderates all line up to swear allegiance to Lisa Nandy.)

I still think Trump is a troll,s especially after his comment that his grandparents didn't leave Germany for the U.S to see it overtaken by immigrants.

I still think Trump is a troll,s especially after his comment that his grandparents didn't leave Germany for the U.S to see it overtaken by immigrants.

 

That Tweet was a spoof from a parody account.

Also this is the sentence that confirms the Tea Party won in the end.

 

(Compare and contrast the Labour leadership contest in 2020 when moderates all line up to swear allegiance to Lisa Nandy.)

Nandy v Lewis would be really quite something.

So Clinton's lead unfortunately collapsed after Christmas.

 

Do we think Bernie Sanders has a shot at winning the election then? Might be a landslide victory as the Republicans have attacked Hillary endlessly, leaving him to fly under thw radar so much his poll numbers are almost like those of a candidate not yet in the race, so he will have that clean slate advantage. I really wanted Hillary to win, it's 2008 all over again :/ .

The hypothetical general election polls show Bernie beating all of the Republicans by more than Hillary does. He probably still won't win the nomination anyway but I don't think it's much of a worry that the Republican nominee would beat him if he does (especially if it's Trump as it's apparently looking more and more likely it will be - after months and months of his lead not letting up the bookies at least finally have him as the favourite).

 

(#feelthebern)

I think he's a sure fire win for the nomination now - all the polls point to that overall trend :/ . He won't choose Hillary as running mate either, but Elizabeth Warren. It's a shame as I reckon Hillary would have Bernie as running mate, pleasing more people.

I'd quite like to see Hilary & someone other than Trump (haven't decided who yet) win the respective nominations for their parties, then see both Bernie Sanders & Donald Trump run as independents so that we'll have a genuine 4 candidate run. Both Trump and Sanders would probably be happy to run as independents, especially given that Sanders didn't join the Democrats until last year and Trump's relationship with the Republicans at the moment is pragmatic at best, and it means we'll have the full gamut of ideological positions (socially & economically liberal, socially liberal, economically conservative/socially liberal, economically liberal/socially conservative, socially & economically conservative), which would be quite interesting indeed.

I don't really think there's THAT much to worry about. Yes, her lead has dwindled a lot since December, but she is still ahead and Bernie is no Obama.

Her lead is diminishing daster than vs. Obama at this stage, he leads with under 30s, is cutting into her leads with blavk and Hispanic and women voters who are her core and looks set for h7ge victories in the caucuses Iowa and New Hampshire meaning he will get the momentum. Unfortunately this all means we won't be getting Hillary as president :( The thing is she will likelly retire after another defeat like this :/

I'd quite like to see Hilary & someone other than Trump (haven't decided who yet) win the respective nominations for their parties, then see both Bernie Sanders & Donald Trump run as independents so that we'll have a genuine 4 candidate run. Both Trump and Sanders would probably be happy to run as independents, especially given that Sanders didn't join the Democrats until last year and Trump's relationship with the Republicans at the moment is pragmatic at best, and it means we'll have the full gamut of ideological positions (socially & economically liberal, socially liberal, economically conservative/socially liberal, economically liberal/socially conservative, socially & economically conservative), which would be quite interesting indeed.

 

Sanders has said he won't run against Hillary if he loses as he doesn't want to swing the election in favour of the Republicans. Trump might be narcissistic enough to do so and have the opposite effect. (Though he has also officially signed a pledge saying he won't... but that doesn't really mean anything when this is Trump we're talking about).

 

Bernie to win the Dem nomination, Trump to lose and run third party, Bernie to win all 50 states. Pls. (I'd like the idea of having a female President which I'm guessing is one of the main arguments in Hillary's favour... but Bernie is just a far, far superior candidate).

I much prefer Hillary but Bernie is running away with it.

I think he's a sure fire win for the nomination now - all the polls point to that overall trend :/

He's behind Clinton by miles nationally and ahead in the odd poll of New Hampshire and generally behind in Iowa. There is literally no trend showing a Bernie nomination is *likely*, let alone surefire.

A couple links, combined with her collapsed lead;

 

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/8968048

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix...6&tid=ss_tw

The hypothetical general election polls show Bernie beating all of the Republicans by more than Hillary does.

Mostly as Bernie matchups have far higher levels of Don't Know responses at this point - which obviously wouldn't necessarily be the case by the time of an actual general election, but currently most undecided Republican-leaning voters know what they think about Hillary but don't know what they think about Bernie other than maybe that he seems different from your average Democrat. I'd say it's fairly unlikely that when it comes down to it those ex-GOP Don't Knows would go for him.

He polls really well with Republicans in Vermont and isn't as polarising. Hillary has been the arch-Democrat for decades now. Bernie has been an independent till last year. I don't want him to qin, but it seems very likely. After the impetus he will get following big wins in the early states and encroaching into Hillary's mational lead, it mighr actually be a landslide.

A couple links, combined with her collapsed lead;

 

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/8968048

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix...6&tid=ss_tw

The first article is literally a load of cherrypicked polling questions backed up by hedgehog 'THIS WILL DEFINITELY HAPPEN' blustering - which, again, rely on marginally overall positive responses for a candidate unknown to most Americans versus equivocal responses for the most well-known American woman of the last 25 years. If you have 20 people who say they like someone and 18 who say they doesn't, does that make them more popular than someone where 40 say they like them and 45 say they don't? Net ratings are junk as a predictor of primary results.

 

As for the latter, one of the most elementary lessons of GCSE Statistics is that trends are not absolute. Just because someone falls four points this week doesn't mean they'll fall four points next week - particularly in polls, where sharp moves either way in a single poll are typically followed by a sharp move the other way in the next poll, because of sample noise.

 

And Iowa and New Hampshire - which Bernie could well win either of, or both, which I've said for months now - are as favourable a ground Bernie will ever get as simultaneously the whitest and most liberal Democratic state parties nationally. If he's only winning those narrowly, what does that say for his chances nationally?