Not really, she's just done what Miliband did: thrown out some woolly talk about how bad inequality is, without having the nerve to suggest anything that would combat it. But a strong challenge in the primaries might hopefully force her hand.

 

She has also shown in the past she can be easily bought by the health lobbies!

Increasing speculation that Joe Biden will throw his hat in the ring, as Hillary's ratings go into freefall.

 

Poll last week showed that in match-ups with the Republicans, Hillary would do only slightly better than the "unelectable" Bernie Sanders, and only equally or in some cases slightly worse than Biden would do.

Hillary's ratings have only really fallen among independents though - she still has a prohibitive 85% approval rating among Democrats and fundraising that's beating even Obama's at this stage in 2007. The longer Joe leaves it, the even more less likely it'll be for him to put up a fight. He's a back-up candidate should the worst happen to Hillary at best really.

Hillary's ratings have only really fallen among independents though - she still has a prohibitive 85% approval rating among Democrats and fundraising that's beating even Obama's at this stage in 2007. The longer Joe leaves it, the even more less likely it'll be for him to put up a fight. He's a back-up candidate should the worst happen to Hillary at best really.

 

But what's 'the worst'? Being unable to win the presidential election if she's the nominee? Because she's heading rapidly to that place.

 

Also, one of the more significant things about Hillary's ratings is she's falling particularly badly with white voters (while holding up well with ethnic minorities). Unfortunately for her, the first two primary states are overwhelmingly white, so defeats in one or both of them are now distinct possibilities.

The worst - a particular scandal or wound that immediately crashes her status as a frontrunner or competitive in the election (if someone wanted to, they could make a statement about what that collapse in the polls has coincided with in terms of Hillary's positioning. I won't, because I think it can win, but I will say that it's proof that the position *in and of itself* isn't some kind of electoral manna from the heavens).

 

On the subject of white people - it's pretty much priced in at this point that as the two states which are simultaneously the whitest and most liberal, if Sanders wins anywhere it'll be Iowa and/or New Hampshire, but it'll take remarkable competitiveness on his part to win in any/many other states. It's also worth bearing in mind that Obama lost big with white people in 2008 and 2012, so Hillary only has to lose by narrowly less to offset the inevitably slightly smaller BAME turnout (her margins over a generic Republican amongst BAME voters are pretty much identical to what Obama's were, so unless the Republicans nominate Rubio it shouldn't be an issue).

The worst - a particular scandal or wound that immediately crashes her status as a frontrunner or competitive in the election (if someone wanted to, they could make a statement about what that collapse in the polls has coincided with in terms of Hillary's positioning. I won't, because I think it can win, but I will say that it's proof that the position *in and of itself* isn't some kind of electoral manna from the heavens).

 

On the subject of white people - it's pretty much priced in at this point that as the two states which are simultaneously the whitest and most liberal, if Sanders wins anywhere it'll be Iowa and/or New Hampshire, but it'll take remarkable competitiveness on his part to win in any/many other states. It's also worth bearing in mind that Obama lost big with white people in 2008 and 2012, so Hillary only has to lose by narrowly less to offset the inevitably slightly smaller BAME turnout (her margins over a generic Republican amongst BAME voters are pretty much identical to what Obama's were, so unless the Republicans nominate Rubio it shouldn't be an issue).

 

Lol, well anyone who made that argument would have to explain why a candidate well to her left performs almost as well in polls against Republicans :P

 

Although on second thoughts, it might've damaged her in that her pushing stances which go directly against everything she's stood for to date makes her seem more cynical and inauthentic than ever.

OT: *.*

 

I have been living for Donald Trump's campaign these past few months, if only for the troubling glimpse into the future of the British Left it's offering me with a myriad of 'that's a wrong statistic' type delusions.

 

Also I reserve the right to descend into endless gay exaggeration if Hillary gets the Democrat nomination (and I don't think I'll be alone in that).

I'm a little envious of Americans since the Sanders campaign seems to be a lot more fun than the Corbyn one. Maybe because it's taking place exclusively on Reddit.

Also I imagine there are fewer accusations that Hillary supporters are basically just Republicans. Bu then, I imagine Bernie literally not being a Democrat wards that off.

It might also be because Hillary, as uninspiring as she/her campaign is, is atleast not literally parrotting word-for-word Republican arguments on the economy, welfare, businesses, tax, etc.

I don't think a Conservative ever made the argument that debt interest is better spent on education and health rather than tax cuts, but anyway.

 

-x-

 

Carly Fiorina was apparently really good in the Rejects Debate (Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal et al) last night - she won the snap poll with *83%* (second place got 7%!). She did really well in the post-debate interview with Chris Matthews too - taking down Hillary without looking frothing-mouthed as Republicans tend to. (I can't post it as I'm on my phone - can someone else do the honours?)

 

I doubt she'll get the nomination because, well, she's a woman in the Republican Party, but I imagine she'll have a big jump soon.

Marco Rubio will be the candidate if the republicans have any sense or want the presidency but they may not want it yet, I'd fear them if they picked him!

I took a survey thing on which US presidential candidates I side with the most the other day ( http://www.isidewith.com/ ) and Marco Rubio was dead last with 3% (tied with Rick Santorum). Welp.

 

Bernie Sanders 93%, Hillary Clinton 90%, Martin O'Malley 70% then the highest Republican was Rand Paul with a whopping 41%. Followed slightly surprisingly by Mike Huckabee at 31%, I thought he was one of the more lunatic-y of the Republican lunatics. And 19% for Donald Trump.

 

There is my intellectual as ever contribution to this forum ~

 

I actually did watch the whole Fox News debate out of interest mainly in Trump, and John Kasich seemed like the most reasonable of them all, if only for the fact he doesn't seem to entirely hate the gays. Figures that the most reasonable candidate was the one who only barely scraped into the top 10.

I got a 98% match with Bernie Sanders, 93% with Hillary Clinton. This highest score for a Republican was John Kasich on 41%. Trump scored 11%, Ted Cruz a very impressive zero.

96% Sanders

87% Clinton

81% O'Malley

 

44% Kasich

39% Paul

33% Jindal

31% Huckabee

23% Trump (apparently on healthcare, go figure)

23% Bush

23% Christie

11% Fiorina

8% Perry

5% Carson

5% Graham

5% Rubio

3% Walker

0% Cruz

0% Santorum (YES!)

98% Sanders

89% Clinton

 

52% Bush (somehow I aggree 52% with a Republican, omg help me!)

 

0% Santorum and Cruz

I took this quiz right after Bré mentioned it the other day, and I had in the 90s for Sanders and Clinton (so pretty much the same as you guys), Jeb Bush as the highest Republican on 38% but with Trump in second place not far behind(!) . 3% for Cruz, he seems to be completely out of it.

 

Trump for Republican nomination I guess.

85% Sanders

85% Clinton

73% O'Malley

72% Bush

58% Christie

57% Carson

56% Paul

52% Jindal

50% Walker

49% Rubio

47% Graham

46% Huckabee

43% Trump

40% Kasich

37% Santorum

32% Fiorana

27% Cruz

24% Perry

 

so yeah, that happened

I had 7% for Ted Cruz and was disappointed it was even that high. Thank the lord for Johnkm saving me from being the biggest supporter of Ted Cruz!!1