Have any of the Tories in this thread predicting a Tory win :lol: checked the latest (or any for that matter) opinion polls?

 

I've never voted Tory, never will.

Problem is you could have said the same thing for Labour at this point before the 1992 election, the 1987 election, the 1983 election...

Have any of the Tories in this thread predicting a Tory win :lol: checked the latest (or any for that matter) opinion polls?

 

I've never voted Tory, never will.

 

In reality the lead should be much bigger if labour are to form the next government

 

Cameron had a 14 point lead over Brown a year before the last election and scraped into #10

 

Kinnock had a far bigger lead over Major and lost

 

Maggie was over 20 points behind at one point and still won 3 elections

 

The likelyhood is the economy is going to continue its upward path between now and May 2015, house prices likewise, jobs will continue to be created, all things that will benefit a tory win.

 

I am still very optimistic ;)

We won't get any seats in Scotland, much of Wales, London bar the usual suspects like Westminster, Chelsea etc, the North East, Merseyside and much of Yorkshire imho, might as well forget campaigning in those areas, should focus on Essex, Midlands, Cheshire and Lib Dem territory like South West

If you think Cheshire is a swing area then no wonder you're predicting a Tory majority.

In reality the lead should be much bigger if labour are to form the next government

 

Cameron had a 14 point lead over Brown a year before the last election and scraped into #10

 

Kinnock had a far bigger lead over Major and lost

 

Maggie was over 20 points behind at one point and still won 3 elections

 

The likelyhood is the economy is going to continue its upward path between now and May 2015, house prices likewise, jobs will continue to be created, all things that will benefit a tory win.

 

I am still very optimistic ;)

 

It's still an absolute mess up north.

 

The economy is barely recovering at all and is recovering the slowest out of all the major world economies. A 1% dip in inflation is hardly something to celebrate.

 

The fact is this government is not popular and never has been. Outside of Tory root supporters, it is a very different story and there is little optimism about the government or its policies.

 

I am VERY optimistic therefore that this awful coalition will be given the boot.

Edited October 4, 201311 yr by Michael!

It's still an absolute mess up north.

 

The economy is barely recovering at all and is recovering the slowest out of all the major world economies. A 1% dip in inflation is hardly something to celebrate.

 

The fact is this government is not popular and never has been. Outside of Tory root supporters, it is a very different story and there is little optimism about the government or its policies.

 

I am VERY optimistic therefore that this awful coalition will be given the boot.

 

I am afraid you are wrong about the economy, it is growing the fastest out of all the major economies, and by quite a considerable way too, only yesterday too it was announced that predicted growth for Q3 is a staggering 1.2%, with rises in Q1 and Q2 and probably Q4 too it is not beyond the realms of possibility that growth for the year will be 2.5-3%

 

The economy is powering along, the UK's biggest employment agency said August was the best month for job creation in 6 years, only yesterday quite phenomenal new car sales figures were announced.

 

House prices are making the country feel good about itself again and add in the increased job security and PPI compensation the country is in great shape atm

 

We are not receiving thanks on a big enough scale yet but with the election still 20 months away a likely 20 month increase in house prices will result in thanks in May 15, house prices are even starting to rise in the north now according to the Halifax

 

More and more good news about the economy more and more will decide to vote for the party responsible for it, tories, rather than risk another 5 years of the regime that nearly bankrupted it, labour

 

 

You keep going on about house prices but the vast majority of the increases are due to London and the South East. There might be a slight average rise elsewhere but it's nowhere near as much and values are still well down on 5 years ago, unlike the South where they're at the same levels or higher. They were also always going to rise when the government announce a scheme making it easier for first time buyers to get a mortgage even though long-term the policy won't help anyone. Whoever would've thought a ruling party would come up with a policy which would produce short-term good news?

 

I'd have said people would vote on three major issues. 1) money in pockets 2) health 3) education (though more down to families). The tories might win on 1 but they sure as hell don't win on the others after the shambles of this government.

Edited October 5, 201311 yr by RabbitFurCoat

You keep going on about house prices but the vast majority of the increases are due to London and the South East. There might be a slight average rise elsewhere but it's nowhere near as much and values are still well down on 5 years ago, unlike the South where they're at the same levels or higher. They were also always going to rise when the government announce a scheme making it easier for first time buyers to get a mortgage even though long-term the policy won't help anyone. Whoever would've thought a ruling party would come up with a policy which would produce short-term good news?

 

I'd have said people would vote on three major issues. 1) money in pockets 2) health 3) education (though more down to families). The tories might win on 1 but they sure as hell don't win on the others after the shambles of this government.

 

Labour have a bad record on health though, yes waiting lists came down but Staffordshire happened under their watch and labour ruthless enforcing of league tables caused a lot of tensions with doctors and patient care so labour simply throwing more money at the NHS would not improve anything if they got in, and labours idea of solving a problem is simply throwing more and more money into something.

 

Education record of labour was nothing they can brag about in 2015 either, the supposed 'dumbing down' of GCSE and A level exams and too many people going to university on meaningless degree courses for example, youth unemployment is too high now but it was very high under labour too

 

Labour will likely keep their core vote and pick up the votes of students who were betrayed by lib dems over fees but I fail to see where they will get a lot of new voters from

 

Labour have a bad record on health though, yes waiting lists came down but Staffordshire happened under their watch and labour ruthless enforcing of league tables caused a lot of tensions with doctors and patient care so labour simply throwing more money at the NHS would not improve anything if they got in, and labours idea of solving a problem is simply throwing more and more money into something.

 

Education record of labour was nothing they can brag about in 2015 either, the supposed 'dumbing down' of GCSE and A level exams and too many people going to university on meaningless degree courses for example, youth unemployment is too high now but it was very high under labour too

 

Labour will likely keep their core vote and pick up the votes of students who were betrayed by lib dems over fees but I fail to see where they will get a lot of new voters from

Whilst I can't exactly disagree with you, this government have done nothing to improve on either and I think many people see it that way. Too many people went to university under labour is a fair comment, so why does the current education minister say more people should go to university? It will only exacerbate the problem, but I suppose it'll keep youth unemployment down so it would be another short-term win for them. They also won't sell off the NHS to private companies, probably at a vast undervalue like is currently happening with the Royal Mail (though I guess Brown did completely f*** up on selling gold).

 

I don't think Labour will get anywhere by saying they'll throw money at anything now. They may have done that in the past but they'll need to differentiate from now in comparison to the Labour of Blair/Brown, they'll know that if they want to get anywhere.

 

The fact is there is a huge amount of people in this country that trust neither of the two main parties and don't see them as being in any way honest or looking after the vast majority. I saw this morning that last week Osborne defended and protected rises to bankers bonuses, yet any rise for NHS workers has been dismissed. They still have a lot to do to make people feel like that actually care about people who aren't rich. Even when you look at things like immigration and welfare, they often say a lot of popular things but realistically I don't think anyone notices any difference between now and any time in the previous five years or so.

 

Right now I struggle to see either party winning a majority.

Whilst I can't exactly disagree with you, this government have done nothing to improve on either and I think many people see it that way. Too many people went to university under labour is a fair comment, so why does the current education minister say more people should go to university? It will only exacerbate the problem, but I suppose it'll keep youth unemployment down so it would be another short-term win for them. They also won't sell off the NHS to private companies, probably at a vast undervalue like is currently happening with the Royal Mail (though I guess Brown did completely f*** up on selling gold).

 

I don't think Labour will get anywhere by saying they'll throw money at anything now. They may have done that in the past but they'll need to differentiate from now in comparison to the Labour of Blair/Brown, they'll know that if they want to get anywhere.

 

The fact is there is a huge amount of people in this country that trust neither of the two main parties and don't see them as being in any way honest or looking after the vast majority. I saw this morning that last week Osborne defended and protected rises to bankers bonuses, yet any rise for NHS workers has been dismissed. They still have a lot to do to make people feel like that actually care about people who aren't rich. Even when you look at things like immigration and welfare, they often say a lot of popular things but realistically I don't think anyone notices any difference between now and any time in the previous five years or so.

 

Right now I struggle to see either party winning a majority.

 

On the whole I agree with you particularly on the last bit, Cameron/Osborne are seen, very possibly rightly so, as being elitist and out of touch, both were recipients of healthy trust funds without having to lift a finger work wise, although Cameron did spend some time working in PR, but two people who received millions out of trust funds do struggle to understand what it is like to see costs of living rise and ridiculously high train fares and energy bills and it shows.

 

But I don't think those people who are not already labour voters will shift to labour, more likely they will not bother voting at all, I can see a significant downturn in votes in the next election because of people being sick of the lot of them and just stay at home and not vote.

But I don't think those people who are not already labour voters will shift to labour, more likely they will not bother voting at all, I can see a significant downturn in votes in the next election because of people being sick of the lot of them and just stay at home and not vote.

If people don't turn up to vote in 2015 then whichever party they voted for in 2010 will suffer. Given Labour's vote can't really fall much further you have to assume that was a lot of fairly centrist types who voted for Cameron as they saw him as a departure from the "nasty party" of old. Five years of falling living standards and growing inequality have proved them decisively wrong, and particularly if the Lib Dem vote collapses then Labour will pick up a lot of marginal urban/rural mix constituencies almost by default.

 

As for the notion that house prices in the North are growing, yet again you've shown your complete lack of understanding of statistics. Those figures will have been warped by the fact that city centre living in Manchester (and other big cities to a lesser extent) is booming again. Flat prices are up probably 5% since the start of the year, but everywhere else is still suffering. The fact that Castlefield is still trendy makes no difference to someone in Rochdale.

If people don't turn up to vote in 2015 then whichever party they voted for in 2010 will suffer. Given Labour's vote can't really fall much further you have to assume that was a lot of fairly centrist types who voted for Cameron as they saw him as a departure from the "nasty party" of old. Five years of falling living standards and growing inequality have proved them decisively wrong, and particularly if the Lib Dem vote collapses then Labour will pick up a lot of marginal urban/rural mix constituencies almost by default.

 

As for the notion that house prices in the North are growing, yet again you've shown your complete lack of understanding of statistics. Those figures will have been warped by the fact that city centre living in Manchester (and other big cities to a lesser extent) is booming again. Flat prices are up probably 5% since the start of the year, but everywhere else is still suffering. The fact that Castlefield is still trendy makes no difference to someone in Rochdale.

 

There is still 19 months, i firmly believe all areas near enough will feel some element of recovery/rising house prices by then

 

I suspect the majority of people who wont vote at the next election will be

 

Right wing Blairite types who have labour as a natural home but think Ed has taken the party too far left but are not right wing enough to vote tory and wont vote lib dem because they went into bed with the tories

 

Young Lib dem voters, particularly those that feel let down by Clegg and by his betrayal of students but wont vote tory or labour

 

Right wing tories who have nothing in common with cameron's vision but realise UKIP is a wasted vote

Edited October 5, 201311 yr by Sandro Ranieri

There is still 19 months, i firmly believe all areas near enough will feel some element of recovery/rising house prices by then

 

I suspect the majority of people who wont vote at the next election will be

 

Right wing Blairite types who have labour as a natural home but think Ed has taken the party too far left but are not right wing enough to vote tory and wont vote lib dem because they went into bed with the tories

 

Young Lib dem voters, particularly those that feel let down by Clegg and by his betrayal of students but wont vote tory or labour

 

Right wing tories who have nothing in common with cameron's vision but realise UKIP is a wasted vote

You really do have an obsession with house prices don't you? That obsession is not shared by everybody. For many people, a house is somewhere to live, not an investment.

 

Potential first-time buyers do not want to see rising prices. It is hard enough to get on the housing ladder and rising prices (fuelled by Osborne's crackpot scheme) simply exacerbates this.

 

Rising house prices only mean anything if you want to sell. Even then the difference is minimal as the price of your next property will also have increased. You can only realise the benefit by trading down.

 

There are still many people who are not home owners. Leaving aside the fact they you would probably like to deprive them of the vote altogether, they won't give a stuff about house prices.

 

In most parts of the country house prices have not yet returned to the level of five years ago meaning that there are still people with mortgages greater than the value of their home. That situation will remain for some time to come as prices in those areas continue to climb more slowly than inLondon and the south east.

 

As I've said before, every house price boom in the last few decades has been followed by a slump. What makes you think that won't happen again?

Right wing Blairite types who have labour as a natural home but think Ed has taken the party too far left but are not right wing enough to vote tory and wont vote lib dem because they went into bed with the tories

The only reason the Tories were the biggest party in 2010 is because Cameron attracted those voters. You don't seem able to get the idea in your head that 29% for Labour was the absolute bare bones - short of nuking Glasgow that's as low as it gets in a general election. No one even remotely right wing voted for Brown and co, so the party has nothing to lose on that side. That's why Ed's poll lead has been so solid notwithstanding Tory jumps when UKIP fade.

You really do have an obsession with house prices don't you? That obsession is not shared by everybody. For many people, a house is somewhere to live, not an investment.

 

Potential first-time buyers do not want to see rising prices. It is hard enough to get on the housing ladder and rising prices (fuelled by Osborne's crackpot scheme) simply exacerbates this.

 

Rising house prices only mean anything if you want to sell. Even then the difference is minimal as the price of your next property will also have increased. You can only realise the benefit by trading down.

 

There are still many people who are not home owners. Leaving aside the fact they you would probably like to deprive them of the vote altogether, they won't give a stuff about house prices.

 

In most parts of the country house prices have not yet returned to the level of five years ago meaning that there are still people with mortgages greater than the value of their home. That situation will remain for some time to come as prices in those areas continue to climb more slowly than inLondon and the south east.

 

As I've said before, every house price boom in the last few decades has been followed by a slump. What makes you think that won't happen again?

 

It is difficult to deny that it has been a housing lead recovery

 

People who already have mortgages or are lucky enough to own a house having paid it off FEEL richer, and when they feel richer they are likely to splash out on that new car or new fitted iamspamamispamwhoamspam or start that new business either due to confidence or remortgaging to raise the funds to do it.

 

Those that are buying houses now as first time buyers feel confident that if they buy at 200k in 10 years time or whatever it will be worth 300k so are piling in buying while prices are relatively lowish, when they move into their new home they need a sofa, a tv, a fridge etc etc which in turn helps the retail sector

 

It could all go pear shaped, history proves that, but it wont this side of 2015 if it does at all

Edited October 5, 201311 yr by Sandro Ranieri

The only reason the Tories were the biggest party in 2010 is because Cameron attracted those voters. You don't seem able to get the idea in your head that 29% for Labour was the absolute bare bones - short of nuking Glasgow that's as low as it gets in a general election. No one even remotely right wing voted for Brown and co, so the party has nothing to lose on that side. That's why Ed's poll lead has been so solid notwithstanding Tory jumps when UKIP fade.

 

I think Labour will have a pretty solid base, they will get a vote probably in the low 30's at the very least which will probably give them a minimum of 250-300 seats, possibly more

 

But I think they are preaching to the converted and just don't see them attracting many new voters

Edited October 5, 201311 yr by Sandro Ranieri

...apart from all of those former Lib Dems that Ed Miliband as a leader is almost precision-packaged for.

The only reason the Tories were the biggest party in 2010 is because Cameron attracted those voters. You don't seem able to get the idea in your head that 29% for Labour was the absolute bare bones - short of nuking Glasgow that's as low as it gets in a general election. No one even remotely right wing voted for Brown and co, so the party has nothing to lose on that side. That's why Ed's poll lead has been so solid notwithstanding Tory jumps when UKIP fade.

Well, that depends on what you'd define as right-wing. Economically, not very many at all. Socially...

...apart from all of those former Lib Dems that Ed Miliband as a leader is almost precision-packaged for.

 

There isn't that many of them though, assuming Lib Dems get about 10% at next election there is about 5%? that are going begging

 

Labour bound to pick up a good few students etc but many lib dems are right wing so good % will switch to tories, not as many as switch to labour but enough to minimise a labour gain

 

 

Well, that depends on what you'd define as right-wing. Economically, not very many at all. Socially...

 

Exactly

 

As long as Crosby keeps on with the message about 'f***ing muslims' (his words not mine) and 'layabouts' (again his words not mine) then people will vote tory as that is what the Sun and Daily Mail have told people are what matters in the UK

It is difficult to deny that it has been a housing lead recovery

 

People who already have mortgages or are lucky enough to own a house having paid it off FEEL richer, and when they feel richer they are likely to splash out on that new car or new fitted iamspamamispamwhoamspam or start that new business either due to confidence or remortgaging to raise the funds to do it.

 

Those that are buying houses now as first time buyers feel confident that if they buy at 200k in 10 years time or whatever it will be worth 300k so are piling in buying while prices are relatively lowish, when they move into their new home they need a sofa, a tv, a fridge etc etc which in turn helps the retail sector

It could all go pear shaped, history proves that, but it wont this side of 2015 if it does at all

Which just about sums up the Tory attitude - "It doesn't matter how reckless or disastrous a policy proves to be in the medium term as long as it gets us elected."