This by-election has been touched upon in the Opinion Poll thread, but I thought it would be worth giving it its own topic, given that I love a good by-election. The candidates who will be running to succeed the sadly departed Labour MP Paul Goggins are:

• John Bickley (UK Independence Party)
• Rev Daniel Critchlow (Conservative)
• Captain Chaplington-Smythe (Monster Raving Loony Party)
• Mary Di Mauro (Liberal Democrat)
• Michael Kane (Labour)
• Eddy O'Sullivan (British National Party)
• Nigel Woodcock (Green Party)

So lots of things worth discussing regarding the election. Will recent stories involving the parties running have an effect on the outcome? Can Labour hold on to the seat, and if so with a greater or reduced lead over the Conservatives who polled 2nd in 2010? Will UKIP continue their run of strong performances in by-elections? And will the Official Monster Raving Loony Party poll more than 100 votes?

 

Personally I can't see Labour not holding on to the seat, particularly given their result in the constituency last time and the popularity of Mr Goggins. What are your thoughts?

Labour should win without any problem. The majority is bound to be cut in simple numerical terms because the turnout will be pitiful. It wouldn't surprise me if UKIP come second.

Big Labour win. UKIP will come second but won't do half as well as most predict.

I thought before it would be an easy Labour win, but UKIP seem to have picked a very good candidate.

 

UKIP's poster for the byelection is also very interesting - it seems they've finally picked up on the fact that most people who like UKIP are not rich people who obsess about EU regulation or who want flat tax rates, but are mostly very poor people who are sick of the mainstream parties only representing the super-wealthy. They're even hinting at protecting benefits on that poster. If UKIP do what the French National Front have done by mixing leftwing, pro-welfare state, anti-rich policies with their rightwing immigration and crime messages, then Labour should be getting very worried, especially if they're seriously planning on going into the next election promising more cuts.

I'm not sure why you think committing to a surplus necessarily definitely means promising more cuts.

As it is, I think the chances of the Thatcher-loving Farage essentially taking an Old Labour Right position for UKIP going into 2015 are essentially nil.

As it is, I think the chances of the Thatcher-loving Farage essentially taking an Old Labour Right position for UKIP going into 2015 are essentially nil.

 

He doesn't have to actually believe it himself, to SAY he believes it. I'm sure he knows that appealing to disillusioned white working-class former Labour voters is his best chance of ultimately getting what he wants, withdrawing from the EU.

I couldn't see him getting away with a u-turn like that. I mean, I know most media gotchas on UKIP fail miserably, but I really think nailing him on what would literally be a case of saying what was popular just to get votes when there was past evidence he didn't believe it at all would be something that would be totally lethal for him - it'd basically scream loud and clear to the anti-politics lot who love him as a straight talker that he's 'just like all the rest'.

 

Plus, he doesn't really have to change what he's doing now to appeal to disillusioned white working-class former Labour voters. If anything, changing his views so publicly would probably air the fact he's a Thatcherite far more than just carrying on the way he is now would.

I couldn't see him getting away with a u-turn like that. I mean, I know most media gotchas on UKIP fail miserably, but I really think nailing him on what would literally be a case of saying what was popular just to get votes when there was past evidence he didn't believe it at all would be something that would be totally lethal for him - it'd basically scream loud and clear to the anti-politics lot who love him as a straight talker that he's 'just like all the rest'.

 

Plus, he doesn't really have to change what he's doing now to appeal to disillusioned white working-class former Labour voters. If anything, changing his views so publicly would probably air the fact he's a Thatcherite far more than just carrying on the way he is now would.

 

I agree that that perception would really damage him, BUT this argument makes the assumption that people were ever aware that Farage liked Thatcher's policies in the first place - frankly, I think most people probably have no idea that UKIP have ever had policies on anything apart from immigration and the EU.

 

Plus, Farage is not the only figure that matters in the party. The UKIP candidate in this very byelection claims he is a former Labour voter but stopped voting for them because they abandoned the working class and trade unions.

 

EDIT: And I've just seen on Twitter, more signs that UKIP know that going anti-rich is the way to go for them:

 

Edited February 1, 201411 yr by Danny

I agree that that perception would really damage him, BUT this argument makes the assumption that people were ever aware that Farage liked Thatcher's policies in the first place - frankly, I think most people probably have no idea that UKIP have ever had policies on anything apart from immigration and the EU.

Which is exactly why he'd be better off as is - because changing his position would publicise that that had been the case beforehand. At which point a lot of the disillusioned lot attracted to UKIP might suddenly start thinking, well, has he actually changed so suddenly, and what on earth would make him do that now outside of naked and totally unprincipled electioneering?

Labour ended up winning this comfortably, with an increase of about 11% on their 2010 vote. UKIP did a bit disappointingly, "only" getting 18%. The Lib Dems suffered the biggest decline in their vote in any election since World War 2.

 

Turnout was again pitiful at just 28% - one of the 10 lowest for any byelection since WW2, though admittedly not quite as abysmal as some turnouts in other byelections in the last couple of years.

No great shocks, was never going to be our by election

 

Yes our vote dropped, mostly to UKIP, but most will return to the fold at the general election