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OPINION POLLS II · Neck and Neck

jakee
in News and Politics

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Certainly the outcome of the next election may well provide an opportunity to be rid of FPTP. It is likely to produce a result which will make the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" lose what little credibility it has now.

 

Just as an illustration, if all four UK-wide parties get 22% of the vote each, the electoral calculus website gives the following distribution of seats...

 

Lab 279

Con 219

LibDem 112 (i.e. twice as many seats on a slightly lower share of the vote than last time)

UKIP 9

 

That just shows the perils of measuring by universal swing though - in practice in today's context f that result happened the Lib Dems would presumably be on a similar number of seats and UKIP and the SNP on vastly more if Labour and the Tories fell that far.

That doesn't alter the fact that the result will be a very long way from being proportionate. It is possible to come up with a scenario whereby UKIP win the largest share of the vote followed by Lib Dems, Tories and Labour in that order but the number of seats would be the exact reverse.

 

UKIP 24%, LD 23%, Con 22%, Lab 21% gives

 

Lab 245

Con 202

LD 120

UKIP 52

 

If you move 10% from Lab to Lib Dem and leave the others unchanged, you get

 

Lab 368

Con 198

LD 50

UKIP 5

 

In other words, UKIP lose 47 seats without losing a single vote and Labour get a healthy majority with well under a third of the vote. Of course the reality could be fairly different because of differential swing, but it still seems likely that the outcome will make a lot of people reconsider their support for FPTP.

If the next election results in a changed electoral system then at least one thing good will come out of it. Not optimistic about much else I have to say though...
If those Scottish seat predictions turned out to be true (they won't, but hypotethically) it'd lead to a wildly disproportionate result. And the SNP saying that FPTP was wonderful and democratic and Scottish.
I think the next election will see another hung parliament. Despite the unpopularity of the Tories, Labour do not appear to have come up with an alternative credible plan. Labour may end up as the biggest party though. I just hope the Tories don't get in as we will be looking at cuts on a massive scale.

Prospective SNP candidate apparently rejected for saying they'd refuse to back the bedroom tax under any circumstances.

 

Oh.

Thanks for that. I have a feeling that there might be a little bit more to the story than what he has said, so will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

I'm sure you're right, but it seems pretty damning.

I don't think there'll be much more - it's pretty standard for selection interviews to have a question on whether you'll follow the whip and for the answer to be a red line on selection, but even so it's quite odd they chose that particular policy to pose the question.
LOL

 

Aside from egos and mindless football team-like tribalism, what would the stumbling blocks be? The only significant dispute on policies I could see arising is over the bedroom tax - and frankly I suspect a few Tories would secretly be relieved even to have an excuse to junk that.

Edited by Danny

A difference of about £50bn in cuts isn't a significant dispute these days?

 

Not to mention at least half the party would leave in an instant. You couldn't get more toxic as a move.

unlikely scenario, but a mass exodus of MP's in a huge strop if there were no other option to a combined government would reflect badly on them - a sort of "I'd rather see the country fall to bits than agree to work with you lot" would make them look selfish if that was what the electorate had voted for.

 

hypothetically.

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