April 11, 20169 yr Author Us finishing below Germany? Really? Jurors should ensure that the Germans at least get something whilst outside of Ireland and Denmark, I'm struggling to see where we're getting votes from at all.
April 11, 20169 yr Only in my dreams are Bulgaria ever winning :drama: It's not the most unlikely thing to happen. That hook is to die for!
April 12, 20169 yr I think Bulgaria might finish similar to Latvia last year. You wouldn't really have thought Latvia as a country could pull it off with their track record but it was such an effective song it was just ultimately a hit, I wasn't sure what to expect from it until it was doing so well in the voting :lol: Poli has a brilliant pop song with arguably the catchiest hook of the whole thing.
April 15, 20169 yr Less than a month to go so time to do some updated predictions now we have the running order. SEMI ONE 01. Iceland 02. Russia 03. Malta 04. Azerbaijan 05. Armenia 06. Cyprus 07. Bosnia & Herzegovina 08. Croatia 09. Greece 10. The Netherlands --- 11. Hungary 12. Estonia 13. Finland 14. Austria 15. Czech Republic 16. Moldova 17. San Marino 18. Montenegro I think Russia should easily win the televote here, but even though I love it, it is a little dated so I can see the juries penalising it a bit, allowing Malta to take the jury vote, but I think once combined it'll be Iceland that come out on top. A favourable running order draw, brilliant staging and performance. Azerbaijan's had a few close calls lately, but I think the song is strong enough this year to be back up there, plus they're between Estonia & Montenegro in the running order. Bosnia & Herzegovina and Greece should keep their qualification records intact, although we haven't seen Greece performed live yet so that is subject to change. I couldn't decide between The Netherlands and Hungary for the final spot, realistically both could make it but I think Hungary's luck might run out this year. Austria SHOULD be sailing through but I can see people being a bit WTF is this at it. I'd love for the Czech Republic, as the country to make it, but it's so forgettable and going after Sergey has killed any hope of a first qualification for them I feel. San Marino and Montenegro are dead on arrival. SEMI TWO 01. Australia 02. Bulgaria 03. Lithuania 04. Ukraine 05. Latvia 06. Belgium 07. Norway 08. Romania 09. Serbia 10. Israel --- 11. Poland 12. Denmark 13. Macedonia 14. Switzerland 15. Slovenia 16. Ireland 17. Belarus 18. Georgia 19. Albania I've gone back and forwards on this one a lot but I think Australia will take this semi. It's probably the most modern and current radio friendly song in this semi, even moreso than Lithuania and the juries will lap it up. Bulgaria not far behind Dami Im though! Lithuania and Ukraine should be up there, doing better on the televoting probably. Belgium are really lucky to be going on last and following Georgia and Albania, should be safely through with their upbeat bop. I think Romania will survive another day, I mean if Voltaj can come top 5 in their semi, I can see this scraping through. Serbia and Israel might be higher if they have good staging. Poland is borderline, it'll be whether the disapora vote is enough again to see him through I feel. I can see Denmark being the jury pick getting knocked out by the televote and Macedonia the televote pick getting knocked out by the jury vote. Switzerland, Slovenia & Ireland are going to be totally forgotten about, none of them are particularly strong songs and I can't see any of them having any amazing staging to save them. I really don't see where Albania are going to get votes from, even Belarus and Georgia have niche interests about them, so I can't see anybody finishing last but them. FINAL 01. Sweden 02. Australia 03. Russia 04. Iceland 05. Bulgaria 06. Lithuania 07. Malta 08. Ukraine 09. France 10. Azerbaijan 11. Italy 12. Latvia 13. Armenia 14. Bosnia & Herzegovina 15. Belgium 16. Cyprus 17. Spain 18. Norway 19. United Kingdom 20. Romania 21. Croatia 22. Greece 23. Serbia 24. The Netherlands 25. Israel 26. Germany I think Sweden will still (unfortunately) take this. It's getting pre-contest hype and whilst it's going to be hated by many, it's also going to be loved (you just have to look at how divisive it is here on Buzzjack), by a lot too and when it comes down to it, the 50% that love it will all vote for it, whilst the other 50% will be voting all over the place and the juries are going to have a total WANKFEST to it. As for the Big 5, France SHOULD do well for a change and I think it will, in fact the only thing I think that will go against it is not being 100% English. Italy should do well yet again, although it might just miss the top 10. Everything suggests Spain will be the fan favourite flop this year, but it is a radio hit in waiting so I think the juries will save it slightly. Same for the UK. Germany will be last again, bottom 3 at least. A totally forgettable song, and whilst she's a good singer, her Japanese anime-esque look is really weird and not in the good way. And the staging at the national final was incredibly boring, so if they keep it the same, I can't see anything saving this.
April 15, 20169 yr http://intouch.wunderweib.de/assets/styles/600x600/public/field/image/jamie-lee-kriewitz-esc-2016.png
April 15, 20169 yr Seriously though I think the juries will like Germany more than the UK so I'd swap their positions in your big 5 predictions. Nothing there looks wildly off though, although I do think Iceland may underperform a bit compared to that, I'm not sure Greta is going to be able to connect to the audience in the way she ideally needs but I may change my mind once I see the Swedish camerawork and if there are more close-ups of her face that aren't obscured by lighting. Then again Loreen was similar in her camerawork, but of course Euphoria was stronger than Hear Them Calling.
April 15, 20169 yr Author Well reastically Iceland's only going to look better in the Globen just based on the level of hi-tech and budgetary capabilities compared to Icelandic TV.
April 18, 20169 yr I would like to place a few small bets. Would anyone like to provide with some outside tips. I will place a couple of each ways bets for fun.
April 18, 20169 yr Semi-Final 1 1. Finland 2. Greece 3. Moldova 4. Hungary (9th) 5. Croatia 6. The Netherlands (6th) 7. Armenia (5th) 8. San Marino 9. Russia (1st) 10. Czech Republic 11. Cyprus (7th) 12. Austria (8th) 13. Estonia 14. Azerbaijan (4th) 15. Montenegro 16. Iceland (2nd) 17. Bosnia & Herzegovina (10th) 18. Malta (3rd) Semi-Final 2 1. Latvia (4th) 2. Poland 3. Switzerland 4. Israel 5. Belarus 6. Serbia (10th) 7. Ireland 8. FYR Macedonia (9th) 9. Lithuania (5th) 10. Australia (1st) 11. Slovenia 12. Romania (7th) 13. Bulgaria (2nd) 14. Denmark 15. Ukraine (3rd) 16. Norway (6th) 17. Georgia 18. Albania 19. Belgium (8th) No idea on the order beyond the top ten of each but I've bolded my predictions to go through...I can see Croatia in 11th in the first semi, Ireland might go through in Semi 2. Edited April 18, 20169 yr by gooddelta
April 18, 20169 yr If Greece dont qualify this year which looks very likely based on the odds, would it be the first time they have failed to qualify for the final?
April 18, 20169 yr The most realistic prediction I've seen yet. Russia not winning and Bulgaria doing very well is something I'm on board with! Less than a month to go so time to do some updated predictions now we have the running order. SEMI ONE 01. Iceland 02. Russia 03. Malta 04. Azerbaijan 05. Armenia 06. Cyprus 07. Bosnia & Herzegovina 08. Croatia 09. Greece 10. The Netherlands --- 11. Hungary 12. Estonia 13. Finland 14. Austria 15. Czech Republic 16. Moldova 17. San Marino 18. Montenegro I think Russia should easily win the televote here, but even though I love it, it is a little dated so I can see the juries penalising it a bit, allowing Malta to take the jury vote, but I think once combined it'll be Iceland that come out on top. A favourable running order draw, brilliant staging and performance. Azerbaijan's had a few close calls lately, but I think the song is strong enough this year to be back up there, plus they're between Estonia & Montenegro in the running order. Bosnia & Herzegovina and Greece should keep their qualification records intact, although we haven't seen Greece performed live yet so that is subject to change. I couldn't decide between The Netherlands and Hungary for the final spot, realistically both could make it but I think Hungary's luck might run out this year. Austria SHOULD be sailing through but I can see people being a bit WTF is this at it. I'd love for the Czech Republic, as the country to make it, but it's so forgettable and going after Sergey has killed any hope of a first qualification for them I feel. San Marino and Montenegro are dead on arrival. SEMI TWO 01. Australia 02. Bulgaria 03. Lithuania 04. Ukraine 05. Latvia 06. Belgium 07. Norway 08. Romania 09. Serbia 10. Israel --- 11. Poland 12. Denmark 13. Macedonia 14. Switzerland 15. Slovenia 16. Ireland 17. Belarus 18. Georgia 19. Albania I've gone back and forwards on this one a lot but I think Australia will take this semi. It's probably the most modern and current radio friendly song in this semi, even moreso than Lithuania and the juries will lap it up. Bulgaria not far behind Dami Im though! Lithuania and Ukraine should be up there, doing better on the televoting probably. Belgium are really lucky to be going on last and following Georgia and Albania, should be safely through with their upbeat bop. I think Romania will survive another day, I mean if Voltaj can come top 5 in their semi, I can see this scraping through. Serbia and Israel might be higher if they have good staging. Poland is borderline, it'll be whether the disapora vote is enough again to see him through I feel. I can see Denmark being the jury pick getting knocked out by the televote and Macedonia the televote pick getting knocked out by the jury vote. Switzerland, Slovenia & Ireland are going to be totally forgotten about, none of them are particularly strong songs and I can't see any of them having any amazing staging to save them. I really don't see where Albania are going to get votes from, even Belarus and Georgia have niche interests about them, so I can't see anybody finishing last but them. FINAL 01. Sweden 02. Australia 03. Russia 04. Iceland 05. Bulgaria 06. Lithuania 07. Malta 08. Ukraine 09. France 10. Azerbaijan 11. Italy 12. Latvia 13. Armenia 14. Bosnia & Herzegovina 15. Belgium 16. Cyprus 17. Spain 18. Norway 19. United Kingdom 20. Romania 21. Croatia 22. Greece 23. Serbia 24. The Netherlands 25. Israel 26. Germany I think Sweden will still (unfortunately) take this. It's getting pre-contest hype and whilst it's going to be hated by many, it's also going to be loved (you just have to look at how divisive it is here on Buzzjack), by a lot too and when it comes down to it, the 50% that love it will all vote for it, whilst the other 50% will be voting all over the place and the juries are going to have a total WANKFEST to it. As for the Big 5, France SHOULD do well for a change and I think it will, in fact the only thing I think that will go against it is not being 100% English. Italy should do well yet again, although it might just miss the top 10. Everything suggests Spain will be the fan favourite flop this year, but it is a radio hit in waiting so I think the juries will save it slightly. Same for the UK. Germany will be last again, bottom 3 at least. A totally forgettable song, and whilst she's a good singer, her Japanese anime-esque look is really weird and not in the good way. And the staging at the national final was incredibly boring, so if they keep it the same, I can't see anything saving this.
April 19, 20169 yr Having attended a Eurovision video preview party at the weekend, I thought I'd share the results from the voting with you all. Bottom 3: Albania Romania Montenegro And the Top 10: 10th Cyprus 9th Austria 8th Iceland 7th Latvia 6th Spain 5th UK 4th Australia 3rd France 2nd Bulgaria 1st Russia The favourites all seemed to be received well by everyone, with perhaps the exception of Sweden. Obviously, when it comes to live performances some of the songs might fare better, while others will no doubt suffer. For me personally, France and Russia were still the stand out songs while Estonia, Austria, Spain, Bulgaria and Latvia sounded much better on the night than when I'd listened to them previously. Perhaps that was the effects of alcohol as much as anything though...
April 19, 20169 yr I think I was at the same one! ^_^ Having attended a Eurovision video preview party at the weekend, I thought I'd share the results from the voting with you all. Bottom 3: Albania Romania Montenegro And the Top 10: 10th Cyprus 9th Austria 8th Iceland 7th Latvia 6th Spain 5th UK 4th Australia 3rd France 2nd Bulgaria 1st Russia The favourites all seemed to be received well by everyone, with perhaps the exception of Sweden. Obviously, when it comes to live performances some of the songs might fare better, while others will no doubt suffer. For me personally, France and Russia were still the stand out songs while Estonia, Austria, Spain, Bulgaria and Latvia sounded much better on the night than when I'd listened to them previously. Perhaps that was the effects of alcohol as much as anything though...
April 19, 20169 yr I think I was at the same one! ^_^ Did you enjoy the evening? That was my first time at it and I loved it! :D
April 19, 20169 yr Did you enjoy the evening? That was my first time at it and I loved it! :D Yep, great fun. Had to leave early sadly but it was great and, like you, my first time too. So good to see Bulgaria as a firm runner up also. Anyway, I reckon... Semi 1 1 Russia 2 Iceland 3 Malta I think there will be a big jump in pointage at this point and then the remaining... 4 Azerbaijan 5 Armenia 6 Croatia 7 Cyprus 8 Hungary 9 Greece (as much as they don't deserve to) 10 Estonia Semi 2 (struggling more with this one) 1 Australia 2 Bulgaria 3 Ukraine 4 lithuania 5 Latvia 6 Serbia 7 Belgium 8 Norway 9 Romania 10 Macedonia* *torn over this or Poland getting the last invitation to the final, but I think polands mix of a disadvantaged slot in the semi together with a dated sounding song will see him out. Edited April 19, 20169 yr by ScottyEm
April 27, 20169 yr With the new voting system potentially making it easier to predict with jury and televoting being completely separate, I'm attempting to break down the vote to decide my final pre-rehearsal predictions. :o Whenever I refer to previous results, I'm referring to semi-finals rather than finals. Semi-Final One Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction 01 01 03 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia Russia should easily win the televote here and juries should be impressed by what is bound to be a very polished presentation, although there are a couple of songs that are more jury appealing. 02 03 01 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta Malta have always overperformed with juries and with the perfect running order slot, a promised high-tech stage show and accomplished performer, they should do even better than their previous entries with juries. There's also a record around that involves something about one of the last two performers finishing top 3 in nearly every semi, Malta is more likely than Bosnia and Iceland (if it is last three rather than last two). 03 02 06 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia Expecting another polished stage show here and Armenia have voting power and a very good vocalist. The unique structure should stand-out and the stage show should make it more accessible as Icebreaker became once that had been performed live. 04 08 04 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands Juries have loved The Netherlands since their 2013 turnaround, topping the jury vote with The Common Linnets and even managing top 5 with Trijntje. Douwe should be an improvement on Trijntje and be in a strong jury top 4. It'll stand-out and televoters should go for this, but not as strongly as The Common Linnets as it is nearly impossible to stage it as well and has a worse draw. 05 04 09 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Iceland.png Iceland Greta's stage show should attract good televoting, she even managed a top 10 televote with a #2 draw back in 2012. It's in a good running order slot after the inaccessible effort from Montenegro and Greta is a reliable performer. Juries may not respond as well, they marked Greta outside the top 10 in 2012 and the comparisons with Of Monsters and Men and Loreen and Mans' previous stagings may knock a few marks off. 06 05 10 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan Azerbaijan have suffered a sudden downturn in results since *that* Lithuanian bribe video, with Azerbaijan's base vote proving to be much lower since. Nevertheless, Miracle should be much more accessible than Start A Fire and Hour Of The Wolf which both failed to make the televote top 10 and is in a good running order slot with no doubt good staging lined up. Juries have dragged Azerbaijan up in previous years, but Samra's vocals remain questionable. 07 10 05 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia Estonia has surprised me by coming this high in my predictions but juries should take to this performance with good vocals and its unique sound. It isn't as accessible for televoters but should pick up a decent vote with a good running order slot and an appealing performer. 08 14 02 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Czech_Republic.png Czech Republic My comparison point for Gabriela here is when Maja Keuc absolutely stormed the jury vote in 2011. Gabriela has some of the best vocals in the competition as proved by her performance in Malta last weekend and juries could go for this in a big way. With the new voting system benefiting those who do very well in just one half of the vote, this could be enough to drag a poor televote into a combined top 10 as I do think Gabriela may be overshadowed by Russia. 09 09 08 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary I expect this to middle in both sides of the vote, a poor draw but an appealing performer with strong vocals which admittedly won't be to everyone's taste. Hungary have a perfect record since their comeback, and this should sneak through. 10 12 07 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Croatia.png Croatia I'm not sure if this is instant enough for televoters with the song only really getting going a minute from the end, and Nina has a tendency to "do a Molly Sterling" and be quite shy of the camera. Juries should appreciate her fantastic vocals and the draw won't be such a hindrance here and this could be enough to sneak her through. 11 06 14 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Bosnia_Herzegovina.png Bosnia & Herzegovina I've surprised myself by losing both Bosnia and Greece here, I expected to have both inside my top 10. Bosnia always have strong televote support, MayaSar finished 7th with a similar draw in 2012. I think this is slightly more accessible than Maya although the rapper will draw that back a bit. Juries tend not to respond well to rap with Greece's perfectly drawn Watch My Dance only just sneaking into the top 10 and Knez had to be dragged into the top 10 by the televote with his Balkan ballad last year - even Dino Merlin missed the jury top 10 in 2011. Overall this could just miss out with a lack of support from juries. 12 07 15 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece Greece are in a similar boat, but with even more rap that Ljubav Je. Maria Elena only managed 9th with televoters last year, and Argo have an even worse draw than she had. I expect the Greek sound to entice some voters back that didn't vote for the generic sound from Maria Elena but I struggle to see juries going for this and Greece arguably have a lack of friends in this semi, Cyprus aside. 13 11 12 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Cyprus.png Cyprus If Greece have a lack of friends, Cyprus certainly do. But underwhelming reviews have come out in the pre-parties. It should stand out but I do think this could middle in both sets of votes and just miss out if the performances don't improve in rehearsals. 14 13 13 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria This is very niche and will have core support in both sets of votes, but it will be limited core support and I just can't imagine this gaining mainstream support unless Zoe sells her performance perfectly in rehearsals. This is prime candidate for fan favourite fail, and it seems this view is shared by many. 15 18 11 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland It's always a worry when a song doesn't win its televote in its national final, Sandhja only managed 3rd. It's not the most memorable of songs and Sandhja is comparable to Ann Sophie in her strong, sexy, almost aggressive stage presence and we saw how well that went for Ann last year. 16 15 18 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/San_Marino.png San Marino This will stand out whether in a positive or negative way, and Valentina saw televote success with the very dated Maybe in 2014. I Didn't Know is much worse but it could have limited appeal and the Turkish diaspora may give a tiny boost. Juries will surely not go for this unless you are Montenegro. 17 16 17 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Moldova.png Moldova Moldova's base vote is smaller than we may imagine with Cristina Scarlat one point off the bottom of the televote in 2014 with a much better draw than Lidia and arguably better vocals and a more interesting song. I can't see televoters going for this generic europop song and juries will punish its dated sound and potentially mediocre vocals. 18 17 16 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Montenegro.png Montenegro The most inaccessible song in the semi-final, it should pick up a few niche votes but nothing more. It's as inaccessible as Finland was last year and that went nowhere with juries. Semi 2 will come later on!
April 27, 20169 yr Semi-Final Two Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction 01 02 01 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/au.png Australia I'm still not seeing the massive appeal of this, but Australia still brings a bit of a novelty vote and high-tech staging is promised. Dami has been called uncharismatic by some, but her strong vocals and memorable stage show (and over-repetitive chorus) should appeal to televoters, but especially juries who are bound to love the professional package put forward. I think Dami can lift this song live. 02 01 04 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine Comparisons have been made to Suus which I can see to an extent, I think the commentators will likely put forward the story behind the song and this should pull in televotes as emotional stories have done previously. We've also been promised some sort of 3D stage show here which should go down well and there could be a hint of a pro-Ukraine vote that helps a bit. Juries should appreciate the strong vocals, although is less accessible then Serbia hence the lower jury position. 03 04 03 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Latvia.png Latvia Aminata and Loic proved last year that left-field songs can do well, both of which did better with juries than televoters in their respective semis last year. Justs' draw is more comparable to Loic's who managed 3rd with televotes and 2nd with juries, and Heartbeat doesn't quite match the quality of Rhythm Inside but shouldn't fare too much worse. 04 03 06 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Bulgaria.png Bulgaria I think this is the closest we are getting to a party song this year, as long as Bulgaria stage this correctly, and Nadav and Bojana proved there is still a market for this. Poli also has the advantage of a song much more contemporary than both of those two. Juries were on board with Nadav, not so much Bojana and that was presumably because Nadav's was the more contemporary of the two and staged better as well. Nevertheless Nadav still did better with televotes than juries and Poli should follow suit, although her draw slot has become less than desirable coming at the end of a row of three female soloists in a row and no longer in the advantageous spot before an ad break. 05 08 02 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia Juries should love Sanja who in my opinion is the best vocalist of the competition and should get a vote comparable to Gabriela in the first semi, if not higher with Goodbye providing more chance to showcase her vocals than I Stand allows for Gabriela. Sanja doesn't have the best draw in the world being after an ad break or have the Balkan star power Kaliopi provides afterwards but should stand out between IVAN and Nicky neither of which are amazing vocalists and has a more accessible song than Kaliopi which has the potential to get votes outside the Balkans, I expect the televote to take a hit but still be top 10. 06 05 10 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Lithuania.png Lithuania Lithuania always are successful in the televote and are in the perfect semi with Latvia, UK, Ireland, Poland, Georgia all voting here. Donny is a strong performer, finishing top 3 overall in his semi with the much much inferior Love Is Blind - although with a much better draw. Juries could mark this down for it being quite generic, but in this semi it should be easily through. 07 10 05 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway While this does have a unique structure, it doesn't match the uniqueness of LoveWave in the other semi and it comes across a little bland and Agnete is a good vocalist but relies on backing vocalist help. I think juries will appreciate what will be a very professional package but I'm not sure there is much for televoters to cling on to relatively speaking. This would be very borderline in semi 1 but is fine in this semi. 08 09 07 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/FYR_Macedonia.png F.Y.R. Macedonia I'm expecting a similar result for Kaliopi as in 2012, even though Dona is in my opinion more accessible and has a better draw than Crno i Belo. The use of native language will prevent its popularity spreading far from the Balkans, but juries will give it an extra boost due to a very strong vocal and will no doubt elevate this song further live as she did in 2012. Kaliopi just has this extra something and I can't see her missing out. 09 07 11 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium While this semi will surely break the record I spoke about in the first semi with one of the last few finishing top 3, Belgium is in the perfect slot with an uptempo catchy song and there is no reason to believe this won't get a good televote as nearly all last-on songs do. Juries may not go for it as much with the claims of it being unoriginal and vocals not suited to the song, but this should be a professional package that won't be voted down either. 10 06 13 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Poland.png Poland This has been doing well in the OGAE poll which has surprised me and I think that televotes for Poland will extend beyond its diaspora. Juries will mark this down for being very dated, although the strong vocals will ensure it isn't right at the bottom of the jury vote and the televote will ultimately pull it through. 11 11 08 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland I still maintain Lithuania does what Nicky and Lighthouse X wants to do much better and doing it more contemporary. While I think Nicky is the weakest of the 3, I think he will attract more votes than a boyband who are too old to get the votes younger boybands would get. Juries will probably give him a little boost due to his reputation but not enough to pull him through. 12 12 09 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark Exactly the same case as Ireland, professional package but ultimately too bland. 13 13 16 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus We've been promised a high-tech show and that will appeal to televoters, but I fear Belarus are going to chuck everything at this and it's going to turn off televoters more than its turns them on. IVAN's vocals are no more than passable so I can't see juries going for this in a big way either. 14 17 12 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Albania.png Albania There's still nothing in this song for televoters to be able to grab on to, there just isn't a hook in the song or any progression either. Eneda has amazing vocals however and juries will respond to this, however not enough to rank it above stronger songs. 15 15 14 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel I think the draw ultimately ruins this, it's in a run of 3 ballads from 2nd to 4th in the draw and while Hovi's is the most contemporary and professional of these 3 ballads it doesn't seem to be appealing as much as Color Of Your Life is doing for Poland and the new voting system will help those countries with diasporas especially in these borderline decisions. 16 14 17 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Slovenia.png Slovenia Slovenia are going all out in their stage show for this with an acrobat for some bizarre reason, but this should see it gain a little traction with televoters. ManuElla's vocals aren't great and the song isn't strong enough either, so there is nothing for juries to vote for here. 17 16 15 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia This will attract a niche in both sets of votes, but there is little widespread appeal so I can't imagine it escaping the bottom 4 in either vote much like San Marino and Montenegro in their semi. 18 18 18 http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Switzerland.png Switzerland Rykka's draw makes this completely forgettable and her vocals, while improving in the pre-parties, are still unreliable. I can't see them doing anything exciting with the staging either and this is going to be Switzerland's second last place in a row surely?
May 1, 20169 yr Got my predictions for the semis done. No predictions for the final yet because running order seems too important to know for that, which is a pity cos I'd love to do that now. Anyway: Semi 1: 1. Russia 2. Malta 3. Azerbaijan 4. Armenia 5. Iceland 6. The Netherlands 7. Czech Republic 8. Hungary 9. Austria 10. Cyprus 11. Bosnia & Herzegovina 12. Estonia 13. Greece 14. Croatia 15. Moldova 16. Finland 17. San Marino 18. Montenegro I kind of struggled with the second half of the qualifiers here but I'm somewhat happy with them overall. Austria I would have originally put as a DNQ but I just feel like it'll have a bit more support than most others do. The fan support has to be coming from somewhere and I feel like juries will appreciate the unique package. France are voting in the semi which is nice but I feel like they'd rather have Germany so that's not such a boon. 3rd is a little high for Azerbaijan but I feel like they've managed to establish themselves as a country that people will pay attention to when they bring a good song to the table despite the last couple of years. 'Miracle' is such a song and I'd expect tremendous staging for it. Croatia I just don't really see happening and Estonia is kind of similar, though I am a lot less confident on keeping that out. Cyprus I think are being overlooked a bit because the country has a poor record but the song really stands out. Semi 2: 1. Australia 2. Ukraine 3. Bulgaria 4. Latvia 5. Serbia 6. Norway 7. Lithuania 8. Belgium 9. F.Y.R. Macedonia 10. Israel 11. Denmark 12. Belarus 13. Ireland 14. Slovenia 15. Poland 16. Albania 17. Georgia 18. Switzerland So hard to do 8-15 for this. It feels effectively random. Nothing too interesting to say about any individual songs.
May 7, 20169 yr Here are my predictions after all of the rehearsals, just grouping them together into categories rather than going for exact predictions at the moment. Semi-Final One Certain Qualifiers http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Russia.png Russia http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Armenia.png Armenia Likely Qualifiers http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Malta.png Malta http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Iceland.png Iceland http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Bosnia_Herzegovina.png Bosnia & Herzegovina Borderline Qualifiers http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Netherlands.png The Netherlands http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Czech_Republic.png Czech Republic http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Azerbaijan.png Azerbaijan http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Hungary.png Hungary http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Greece.png Greece http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Cyprus.png Cyprus Unlikely Qualifiers http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Estonia.png Estonia http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Austria.png Austria http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Croatia.png Croatia http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Finland.png Finland Certain Non-Qualifiers http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Moldova.png Moldova http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/San_Marino.png San Marino http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Montenegro.png Montenegro I definitely feel it is 10 from 11 here, there's a very close mid-pack and it could go one of 6 ways as to which misses out. I'm leaning towards Cyprus here, but Greece and Azerbaijan could both really struggle with jury support and Hungary with televoting support. I think Czech Republic have done enough this time and The Netherlands also, as long as Douwe's 10 second pause isn't horribly awkward even with the audience there. Congratulations to Croatia in turning my original top 3 semi prediction for them a couple of months ago into a probable DNQ. Semi-Final Two Certain Qualifiers http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ukraine.png Ukraine http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/au.png Australia http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Serbia.png Serbia Likely Qualifiers http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Latvia.png Latvia http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Bulgaria.png Bulgaria http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Norway.png Norway Borderline Qualifiers http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belgium.png Belgium http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Lithuania.png Lithuania http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Poland.png Poland http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/FYR_Macedonia.png F.Y.R. Macedonia http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Israel.png Israel http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Denmark.png Denmark Unlikely Qualifiers http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Georgia.png Georgia http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Belarus.png Belarus Certain Non-Qualifiers http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Ireland.png Ireland http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Albania.png Albania http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Slovenia.png Slovenia http://www.eurovision.tv/img/upload/flags/mini/Switzerland.png Switzerland I have to drop 2 from my mid-pack in this semi and I think Israel and Denmark will be more likely to fall short. Israel has had fantastic reviews but it is on so early and doesn't have the diaspora support that Poland has with a similar draw. Hovi could make it through on very strong jury support however. Denmark just feels too bland and is fighting for the same votes as Lithuania and Ireland as I've said many times. Georgia could be a surprise package, but I still think it's quite unlikely - but a big improvement on my previous predictions. My core mid-pack here is Poland, Macedonia and Israel who I think are very interchangeable, more so than the others in the category.
May 7, 20169 yr I think Belgium are a cert to go through, other than that I think you're pretty spot on with those predictions Ryan. Croatia and Lithuania are the two that I think have really ballsed up their staging, luckily Lithuania are in the 'dream semi' in terms of diaspora voting.
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