I've read on some US newspaper sites some talk of Sanders being the nominee with Hillary as his VP pick. Whether she'd want to run second is debateable though, but Sanders is old, so she may see it as a way to achieve her ambition if he beats Trump but then dies in office.

 

One political analyst said that he can think of only three people who could beat Trump in 2020. Barack Obama in a landslide but he can't stand. Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey. Anyone else, including Sanders, and Trump has a second term.

Edited January 23, 20187 yr by Crazy Chris

Trump is the most unpopular President ever at the end of his first term.

 

That political analyst is talking out of his arse, as we should find out in November. Elections are also filled with candidates (such as Obama) who were totally off the radar 3 years before the election....

Trump is the most unpopular President ever at the end of his first term.

.

 

May I borrow your crystal ball, since his first term won't be over for a couple of years. :P

Link please.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&sourc...tL9&ampcf=1

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&sourc...tL9&ampcf=1

That's interesting. In some ways the runner up from the previous time always starts as the favourite if it looks like they'll run again, and Democratic insiders will be aware of the extent to which their base has generally shifted leftwards in the last couple of years.

 

On the other hand...

 

It's still a complete joke to assert that he is definitely going to be the nominee, or that he's the only one who is capable of beating Trump.

 

It should be obvious why the former is a load of balls - a million and one things can change between now and 2020, and there are serious candidates throughout the Democratic field who are lining up for a run and are sufficiently lefty to appeal to the new base. It's far from a done deal that the left will coalesce around Sanders.

 

As for the latter, as others have pointed out - Trump is less popular at this stage than any other postwar President. Numerous more popular Presidents have sought a second term and lost, so he's immensely vulnerable to all sorts of challenges. Sanders and Clinton were both seriously flawed in terms of winning an election in their own ways.

Trump is the most unpopular President ever at the end of his first term.

 

That political analyst is talking out of his arse, as we should find out in November. Elections are also filled with candidates (such as Obama) who were totally off the radar 3 years before the election....

 

 

Do you have a crystal ball? There's three more years to go to the end of his term. Anything can happen! Dubya was very unpopular during his first term but was re-elected to the surprise of many. I fully expect Donald to be a two term President. I think he'll be very hard to beat.

Do you have a crystal ball? There's three more years to go to the end of his term. Anything can happen! Dubya was very unpopular during his first term but was re-elected to the surprise of many. I fully expect Donald to be a two term President. I think he'll be very hard to beat.

 

Of course we can never really know the future but when the man-child regularly causes diplomatic embarrassment on Twitter, shows little sign of introducing great legislation and is likely to have a hard time getting anything through the rest of the American government once these midterms hit it's hard to see his approval ratings improving.

Of course - let's face it, we are talking about a group of very old people here to start with, before factoring in how momentum will change things in the race, or who ends up polling better than Trump around 2019.

 

I haven't seen anything aboot Bernie/ Hillary since 2016 when it was seen as a superticket. It now won't be.

The incumbent generally has the advantage of name recognition. It is likely that relatively few Americans will currently have heard of whoever the Democrat nominee turns out to be.

Does anyone here agree with me that Oprah would walk it if she runs in 2020? I think she'd beat Trump. In fact if she stands I can see Trump not seeking a second term.

Trump would LOVE a second race against a woman, as a misogynist, especially as he wants his daughter to be the first female president to stick it even more to the Clintons. It would be the perfect race for hi - an inexperienced populist vs a (now) experienced populist.

May I borrow your crystal ball, since his first term won't be over for a couple of years. :P

 

I was rushing to answer an email at work :o

 

Yes I meant year, though in Trump's case maybe a SCHOOL term is more appropriate since he works a few hours day, throws tantrums, is never off his mobile phone and has weekends off mucking around in sand pits and playing with balls on grass. :lol:

 

BTW I dont see him doing anything in 3 years (assuming he lasts that long, which I tend to doubt) that will make him popular. You can only learn to love wife-cheating porno shagging daughter ogling racist compulsive lying self-enriching poor-knocking health-care-killing rich-tax-cutting tax-dodging hate-spreading kkk-supporting dicks in very exceptional circumstances.

 

Such as nuclear weapons heading for the west coast.....

Trump would LOVE a second race against a woman, as a misogynist, especially as he wants his daughter to be the first female president to stick it even more to the Clintons. It would be the perfect race for hi - an inexperienced populist vs a (now) experienced populist.

 

Yes he's said he'd love her to oppose him but that he would beat her... :P

Edited January 23, 20187 yr by Crazy Chris

"In a series of hypothetical 2020 one-on-one contests Trump trails Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by a 55% to 42% margin among registered voters. He lags further behind former Vice President Joe Biden by a wide 57% to 40% split, and trails television personality Oprah Winfrey by a 51% to 42% divide."

 

That's on CNN.

 

Bet even Hillary is kicking herself for not waiting until Trump was even LESS popular!

 

If it is a year of traditional candidates, the Democratic establishment can support anyone tbh and might not choose Bernie, but someone more neoliberal :(

As Republicans vote for him in Vermont AND he is the most popular US politician in YEARS with cross-party support AND in inner Democrat strategist surveys, he is the one to beat and they reckon he will be the next candidate. Considering he started off with 2% last time, he is in more than a good position.

He has a 75% approval rating but only 16% supporting him, coming from 40%. That...is not a good position.

Edited January 24, 20187 yr by Qassändra

In other polls he is the top candidate, and he leads Trump. He has made inroads to shore-up his weaknesses from the last campaign, especially on foreign policy in the Senate. NGL, the fact almost ANY Democrat trounces Trump means he is in a worse position, as the Establishment can basically HANDPICK who they want, with super-delegates and promotion - like last time, but with far more leeway. As we get closer and Generic Democrat stops being an option and support shifts around behind centrists and leftists, we will get a clearer picture - shaping up to be a Biden/ Bernie fight, probably ending in a super-ticket. Could Biden be a vice p again?? With a #metoo scandal percolating around Biden atm, it's Bernie who looks to be stronger.

Yes, I can definitely see a joint ticket of two near-80 year olds going down well given the purpose of the role of the vice presidency.

Edited January 24, 20187 yr by Qassändra

Do you have a crystal ball? There's three more years to go to the end of his term. Anything can happen! Dubya was very unpopular during his first term but was re-elected to the surprise of many. I fully expect Donald to be a two term President. I think he'll be very hard to beat.

Bush was nowhere near as unpopular early in his presidency. By this point in his 9/11 had made his approval ratings shoot up, but even before then he wasn't especially unpopular as presidents go.

 

In other polls he is the top candidate, and he leads Trump. He has made inroads to shore-up his weaknesses from the last campaign, especially on foreign policy in the Senate. NGL, the fact almost ANY Democrat trounces Trump means he is in a worse position, as the Establishment can basically HANDPICK who they want, with super-delegates and promotion - like last time, but with far more leeway. As we get closer and Generic Democrat stops being an option and support shifts around behind centrists and leftists, we will get a clearer picture - shaping up to be a Biden/ Bernie fight, probably ending in a super-ticket. Could Biden be a vice p again?? With a #metoo scandal percolating around Biden atm, it's Bernie who looks to be stronger.

Last time kind of put to bed the idea that the establishments of both parties can handpick their candidate and they'll win easily. Clinton still got 20% more votes than Bernie, the superdelegates didn't end up making a difference. It's likely to be a more crowded field next time as well.

 

Speculating about a Bernie vs Biden face off / ticket at this stage is about as instructive as anticipating a Republican ticket of Jeb! and Marco Rubio four years ago. Things change.

As it stands of today, they - and Oprah :/ - are the most popular. But you're right, it will probably be veeery crowded. I think what helped Bernie get name recognition last time was that he was the ONLY other candidate.

 

I wonder what would have happened if Biden HAD run last time :o

As it stands of today, they - and Oprah :/ - are the most popular. But you're right, it will probably be veeery crowded. I think what helped Bernie get name recognition last time was that he was the ONLY other candidate.

 

I wonder what would have happened if Biden HAD run last time :o

They have the highest name recognition, that's what is by far the biggest factor in polls that are taken this early. Senators like Kamala Harris or Kirsten Gillibrand may not be particularly known in the country as a whole outside of those who are interested in politics. When the race starts to build next year then we'll have a better idea of who you could call a frontrunner.