The problem with polls...

 

Mostly it's the difficulty of obtaining a truly random sample - pretty much any method of selection introduces some kind of bias. Self-selecting samples are particularly prone to this.

 

e.g. even Michael couldn't argue that BJ-N&P was remotely representative of the general population. ;)

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/n...8-seat-majority

 

The above contains a blog on the subject of polls : Today in Focus - Can we trust opinion polls?

Edited November 28, 20195 yr by vidcapper

 

Election Maps latest polltracker (to include polls up and including Tue. 26 Nov):

 

CON: 338 (-9), 42.5% (+0.1)

LAB: 226 (+12), 31.4% (+1.0)

SNP: 45 (=), 3.9% (+0.1)

LDM: 16 (-4), 14.1% (-0.8)

 

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1...084802067673089

I'm not believing the polls this time at all after the fiasco in 2017. So many factors this time such as how BXP does, the youth vote, tactical voting etc. Should be an interesting night, especially if the exit poll at 10pm shows it to be close.

Have faith:

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johns...p;r=US&IR=T

 

The evil Tories are experts at brainwashing and we have a one party state media hthat believes in thr Tories, instead of asking about their RECORD IN GOVERNMENT!! But all we need to do is deny Bojo a majority. Then, he's finished.

 

Don't believe this gunk about him having the first shot at forming a government. I don't recall Gordon Brown having that same privilege...

There's a different feel this time though.

Have faith:

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johns...p;r=US&IR=T

 

The evil Tories are experts at brainwashing and we have a one party state media hthat believes in thr Tories, instead of asking about their RECORD IN GOVERNMENT!! But all we need to do is deny Bojo a majority. Then, he's finished.

 

Don't believe this gunk about him having the first shot at forming a government. I don't recall Gordon Brown having that same privilege...

 

 

He did have first chance as a matter of fact. The encumbent, even with less seats, has first chance to try and form a coalition.

Not how the tory cheerleading media made it sound last time, especially when the Lib Dems met with Cameron first...

There was a great article by Stephen Bush in the New Statesman on the YouGov MRP model.

 

One interesting point which was raised here yesterday by Chris and Steve - because of their new realigned coalition of voters the Tories actually need a 10point lead to get a reasonable majority, whereas Labour only need around a 2-3 point lead to achieve similar. It makes them very vulnerable to advances by Lib Dems/ Labour and could mean the final 2 weeks of the election and any trends that develop could be massively important to the end result, which could easily be hugely different to this YouGov prediction.

Note that Tory Remainers aren't necessarily hardcore FPBE

 

Which is why the 'Revoke Article 50' policy was a really poor tactical decision by the party IMO.

Not how the tory cheerleading media made it sound last time, especially when the Lib Dems met with Cameron first...

 

 

I can't remember but the fact is the serving PM has first chance at trying at least to form a coalition with a working majority. If he or she fails then it's up to the next party with most seats,

Which is why the 'Revoke Article 50' policy was a really poor tactical decision by the party IMO.

 

I don't understand why people get so hung up on this. The Lib Dems were never going to win a majority...they were foolish to pretend so in the first place. But for these Tory remain waverers not vote Lib Dems on the basis 'they will revoke Article 50' is stupid...they will never have that power to do so.

No, but by taking a more pragmatic position they may have won over more Tory remainers and ultimately helped to quash Johnson's majority. Sigh.

By taking a more practical position, we would currently have a government of national unity...

How can we have national unity though when half the country wants to leave the EU and half doesn't?

Have faith:

 

But all we need to do is deny Bojo a majority. Then, he's finished.

 

As long as you apply that to Corbyn as well.... :teresa:

Election Maps latest polltracker (to include polls up and including Tue. 26 Nov):

 

CON: 338 (-9), 42.5% (+0.1)

LAB: 226 (+12), 31.4% (+1.0)

SNP: 45 (=), 3.9% (+0.1)

LDM: 16 (-4), 14.1% (-0.8)

 

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1...084802067673089

 

 

Those are the types of numbers I am expecting in the end.

Those are the types of numbers I am expecting in the end.

 

 

Me too. A small Tory working majority. Maybe under 20.

If that's all they can get with the ENTIRE British state and media on their side and in winter, lying to Corbyn about Neil, and I've seen far right douchebags share that Neil vs Corbyn vid, and not mention the hypocrisy of Bojo fleeing from one and demanding people not vote Corbyn because of it, plus the presenters helping Bbojo out when stuck as on radio today, and facebook helping them out by discrediting their own platform by allowing fake news to stop the left wing, then WOW :rofl:

If that's all they can get with the ENTIRE British state and media on their side and in winter, lying to Corbyn about Neil, and I've seen far right douchebags share that Neil vs Corbyn vid, and not mention the hypocrisy of Bojo fleeing from one and demanding people not vote Corbyn because of it, plus the presenters helping Bbojo out when stuck as on radio today, and facebook helping them out by discrediting their own platform by allowing fake news to stop the left wing, then WOW :rofl:

 

That's *one* way of looking at it... :thinking:

Some of the individual constituency polls are more interesting than the national picture...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polli...ituency_polling