Posted March 16, 20196 yr As isn't tradition, I bring you the predictions thread with this paragraph copied from last year (which was copied from the year before) with the required edits. I just need somewhere to write my thoughts! • Feel free to go into as much or as little depth and detail as you wish, from ‘I think the UK will come last’ to full predictions of everyone’s positions with points and justifications essays. • You will make some predictions that turn out to be wrong, that's the name of the game. The challenge will be to see if you can end up with comparatively less egg on your face than everyone else, just make sure you've thought through your bold assertions before you make them. • New information comes to light all the time between now and the live show so you can revise your predictions as often as you like (within reason though, obviously). • If you're Ryan and you say something completely correct despite Lex saying such a prediction is laughable like "Salvador will win the semi 1 televote" as early as April 4th 2017 then prepare to brag about this forevermore. BuzzJack, start predicting NOW!
March 16, 20196 yr Author Very initial predictions with the little running order info we have: SEMI 1 Overall - Televote - Jury 01 01 03 Cyprus 02 05 02 Greece 03 02 06 Hungary 04 09 01 Portugal 05 08 05 Belgium 06 03 12 Estonia 07 11 04 Australia 08 06 09 Serbia 09 04 15 Iceland 10 12 07 Slovenia 11 10 10 Belarus 12 07 14 Poland 13 14 08 Finland 14 15 11 Czech Republic 15 13 16 San Marino 16 16 13 Montenegro 17 17 17 Georgia SEMI 2 Overall - Televote - Jury 01 02 01 The Netherlands 02 01 05 Russia 03 05 02 Sweden 04 03 06 Switzerland 05 10 03 Malta 06 08 09 Azerbaijan 07 09 08 Armenia 08 04 14 Norway 09 06 12 Denmark 10 11 07 Albania 11 15 04 Austria 12 07 15 Lithuania 13 12 10 North Macedonia 14 13 13 Romania 15 16 11 Ireland 16 14 16 Croatia 17 17 17 Moldova 18 18 18 Latvia FINAL Overall - Televote - Jury 01 02 01 The Netherlands 02 01 04 Russia 03 07 02 Sweden 04 03 08 Hungary 05 08 03 Italy 06 05 07 Cyprus 07 04 09 Switzerland 08 10 05 Portugal 09 12 11 Greece 10 20 06 Malta 11 11 16 Azerbaijan 12 09 19 Serbia 13 16 12 Albania 14 17 13 Belgium 15 06 25 Norway 16 22 10 Australia 17 15 18 Denmark 18 14 20 Iceland 19 13 22 Spain 20 19 17 Armenia 21 24 14 United Kingdom 22 23 15 Slovenia 23 18 23 France 24 25 21 Israel 25 21 26 Estonia 26 26 24 Germany
March 17, 20196 yr I’d be extremely shocked if either Sergey or Joci beat their previous results with what seem to be widely agreed are weaker songs In fact, let my first prediction be that Hungary is quite the borderline qualifier!
March 17, 20196 yr OK...worth a stab Semi 1 01 Greece 02 Cyprus 03 Australia 04 Slovenia 05 Hungary 06 Portugal 07 Belgium 08 Estonia 09 Iceland 10 Finland 11 Serbia 12 Czech Republic 13 Poland 14 Belarus 15 San Marino 16 Montenegro 17 Georgia Semi 2 01 Netherlands 02 Switzerland 03 Russia 04 Sweden 05 Armenia 06 Malta 07 Azerbaijan 08 Albania 09 Denmark 10 Norway 11 Lithuania 12 Romania 13 Austria 14 Ireland 15 North Macedonia 16 Croatia 17 Moldova 18 Latvia I written off Finland but I think there is just enough impact for it to squeak through. Greece will, I think, be absolutely eaten up by the jury as it ticks every conceivable box. Slovenia could potentially have their best result on their hands. Iceland will also sneak in, partly thanks to semi final fans being less made up of young families and grannies. I think Netherlands and Switzerland will be the top two of the final. Russia will come around 6th in the final. It’s a bit too “theatre” to win I think and I do think there is a sentiment of anti-Russia that will hinder the jury vote. I don’t even think UK and Ireland televoting will get Lithuania over the line this year either. Edited March 17, 20196 yr by ScottyEm
March 17, 20196 yr Semi 1 Early Predicta POS. TELE JURY 01 01 03 Cyprus Tamta Replay 02 04 01 Greece Katerine Duska Better Love 03 03 02 Hungary Joci Pápai Az én apám 04 05 04 Belgium Eliot Wake Up 05 06 06 Serbia Nevena Božović Kruna 06 02 13 Iceland Hatari Hatrið mun sigra 07 07 09 Czech Republic Lake Malawi Friend of a Friend 08 12 05 Slovenia Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl Sebi 09 09 08 Estonia Victor Crone Storm 10 11 07 Portugal Conan Osíris Telemóveis 11 08 11 Poland Tulia Pali się 12 16 10 Australia Kate Miller-Heidke Zero Gravity 13 14 12 Georgia Oto Nemsadze Sul tsin iare 14 10 16 San Marino Serhat Say Na Na Na 15 13 15 Belarus ZENA Like It 16 17 14 Montenegro D-Moll Heaven 17 15 17 Finland Darude feat. Sebastian Rejman Look Away I don't think Iceland will be quite so polarising as people think as it does have a great beat, great show and they are very likeable. The televoters will love them especially in such a weak semi, and the jury will either love or hate them (AWS didn't place dead last in 2018 with the juries and the televoters placed them 5th for example). I think there will be quite a bit of differences between the juries and televoters on who should qualify because there are just so many slow songs lol. Montenero and Finland seem like the obvious last placers to me. Edited March 17, 20196 yr by cantthinkofaname
March 17, 20196 yr I do not share this forum’s confidence in either Hungary or Belgium being surefire qualifiers!
March 17, 20196 yr Semi One Overall - Televote - Jury 01 | 02 | 01 Slovenia 02 | 01 | 03 Cyprus 03 | 03 | 02 Greece 04 | 04 | 05 Portugal 05 | 09 | 04 Estonia 06 | 05 | 08 Hungary 07 | 06 | 10 Serbia 08 | 11 | 06 Australia 09 | 12 | 09 Czech Republic 10 | 07 | 14 Poland --- 11 | 14 | 07 Belgium 12 | 08 | 15 Iceland 13 | 10 | 13 San Marino 14 | 13 | 12 Belarus 15 | 15 | 11 Finland 16 | 16 | 17 Montenegro 17 | 17 | 16 Georgia Semi Two Overall - Televote - Jury 01 | 01 | 01 The Netherlands 02 | 04 | 03 Malta 03 | 06 | 02 Sweden 04 | 02 | 06 Russia 05 | 05 | 04 Azerbaijan 06 | 03 | 07 Switzerland 07 | 09 | 05 Armenia 08 | 08 | 09 Albania 09 | 12 | 10 Romania 10 | 07 | 15 Norway --- 11 | 10 | 13 Ireland 12 | 11 | 14 Denmark 13 | 17 | 08 Austria 14 | 14 | 12 North Macedonia 15 | 16 | 11 Croatia 16 | 13 | 18 Lithuania 17 | 15 | 17 Moldova 18 | 18 | 16 Latvia
March 17, 20196 yr Yeah I agree, Belgium will scrape through at best probably. I can definitely see Iceland getting pretty good jury support actually, it has a lot to it as a package. It will be divisive but I think a lot of jurors will like it. Televoters will love it I'm sure. I hope the juries and televoters are kind to Kate M-H! I'd be so disappointed to see Australia DNQ with this.
March 17, 20196 yr I can definitely see Iceland getting pretty good jury support actually, it has a lot to it as a package. It will be divisive but I think a lot of jurors will like it. Televoters will love it I'm sure. I’d go as far as saying I think it can continue a pattern of Iceland coming 2nd in years ending with 9. I expect it to be a HUGE televote favourite, the people it will appeal to it will really appeal to and it’s not the sort of song that will split votes as it’s so different.
March 17, 20196 yr Here's roughly how I see Semi One shaping up (order listed does not necessarily reflect the finishing order) Safely through Cyprus Greece Semi-Safely through Estonia Serbia Australia Wildcards Iceland Portugal Borderline - IN Slovenia Czech Republic San Marino Borderline - OUT Hungary Belarus Belgium Struggling Poland Finland No Chance Montenegro Georgia
March 17, 20196 yr These didn't turn out as I expected and will be a funny reference point come May Semi 1 01 Greece 02 Iceland 03 Cyprus 04 Belgium 05 Portugal 06 Slovenia 07 Estonia 08 Hungary 09 Serbia 10 Australia 11 Poland 12 Belarus 13 San Marino 14 Czech Republic 15 Finland 16 Montenegro 17 Georgia Only songs I would really rule out are the bottom 3 - I can even see San Marino springing a surprise. Semi 2 01 Netherlands 02 Switzerland 03 Sweden 04 Malta 05 Russia 06 Armenia 07 Norway 08 Azerbaijan 09 Albania 10 Denmark 11 Romania 12 Lithuania 13 Croatia 14 Macedonia 15 Ireland 16 Moldova 17 Latvia 18 Austria I'm pretty confident of the top 8 qualifiers but could see Romania or Croatia getting in over Denmark. I do think Albania could also do really well in this semi given how much it should stand out. Final (Why have I done this) 01 Switzerland 02 Netherlands 03 Greece 04 Iceland 05 Cyprus 06 Italy 07 Russia 08 Sweden 09 Malta 10 Armenia 11 Spain 12 Portugal 13 Norway 14 Albania 15 Azerbaijan 16 Slovenia 17 Serbia 18 Hungary 19 France 20 Australia 21 UK 22 Belgium 23 Estonia 24 Denmark 25 Germany 26 Israel I'm really unsure of the winner at the moment and do think staging/hype could send it to any of the top 9 really, apart from Russia. I just got the best vibes from Switzerland when I first heard it and do think it will appeal to casuals more than the other upbeat songs and Netherlands.
March 19, 20196 yr Semi 1 01 Greece 02 Cyprus 03 Slovenia 04 Estonia 05 Portugal 06 Hungary 07 Iceland 08 Australia 09 Czech Republic 10 Poland 11 San Marino 12 Belgium 13 Serbia 14 Belarus 15 Finland 16 Montengro 17 Georgia Really cannot call this semi, exciting!! I'm almost certain of the top 4 being through, I can see Slovenia's cool vibe being a fairly big hitter. Between 5-14 or so, I think they're all in contention, I'd like to think Portugal will be fine but that along with Iceland feel quite polarising and could go either way. Semi 2 01 Netherlands 02 Sweden 03 Russia 04 Switzerland 05 Albania 06 Malta 07 Azerbaijan 08 Armenia 09 Norway 10 Croatia 11 Denmark 12 Romania 13 Lithuania 14 Ireland 15 Macedonia 16 Latvia 17 Moldova 18 Austria Bit easier to call, fairly certain on the top 9 but I could see 10-13 all fighting for that last spot. Can't see past Netherlands for the overall win, I think Switzerland might be being a bit overhyped and may flop a bit a la Occidentali's Karma and "only" come like 7th
March 20, 20196 yr I hope the juries and televoters are kind to Kate M-H! I'd be so disappointed to see Australia DNQ with this. It’s the only NF song I’ve heard that made me think “winner”. On reflection, perhaps not so now but it’s high impact and on the right side of crazy. I think this is getting a lot of underserved and unexpected shade from the Euro community. I also think the bookies have got this wrong. This is surely SAILING through? Edited March 20, 20196 yr by ScottyEm
March 20, 20196 yr I think Cyprus are being overestimated this time I agree. I don't think it stands out in its genre as much as Fuego did. I could quite easily see it getting a 'shock' 11-16th style finish at the moment (though of course Fuego was elevated so much by the live performance so who knows). It’s the only NF song I’ve heard that made me think “winner”. On reflection, perhaps not so now but it’s high impact and on the right side of crazy. I think this is getting a lot of underserved and unexpected shade from the Euro community. I also think the bookies have got this wrong. This is surely SAILING through? I'm quite surprised that a lot of the fandom don't seem keen on it too. I'm not expecting a win by any stretch but I seriously would not be able to fathom a DNQ for a great song with an important message by such a fantastic and extremely talented artist that really stands out from the pack positively in my opinion. I know a lot of the community remain disappointed that Australia didn't go with 2000 and Whatever though. I still find that overrated honestly - I love the artist, their style and the message of the song but the actual melody and performance were both seriously lacking, it was like Unklejam reheating a Black Box b-side.
March 20, 20196 yr Author I think Australia's hopes could be completely transformed if they come up with a brand new stage show from scratch. As it stands, it unfortunately comes across like a joke performance that massively distracts from the quality vocals and decent song that there is. Instead all that we have in our minds (if listening) or are seeing is a pastiche of some of the big joke act performances over the years. I know the meaning behind it but it does so much more harm than good. Judging from the videos provided on the Eurovision channel, if people tuned in to them and watched them all for the first time they'd think that this year's joke act is Australia over any other I think and that's not what they should be portraying.
March 20, 20196 yr And all indications are that they're changing the staging iirc? There's definitely something there but they need it to be a "spectacle" and on the right side of over the top. TBH I think the fans are just salty because it's Australia so I wouldn't read too much into it.
March 20, 20196 yr Agreed, Kate MH absolutely has the ability to pull off an amazing show and I hope I'm underpredicting her - I didn't know they were looking very likely to change the staging! Eurofans are just ridiculous over Australia, so that doesn't help. They all lapped up opera when it was La forza yet now it's a "joke" just because it's a bit unconventional and mixes opera into a pop song and has crazy staging. The dress just kind of feel a bit *too* La forza, but as said I can't see it being too difficult to do something that's suitably OTT for Eurovision without taking the piss.
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