Redfield interviewed 10k people over the weekend. This is a good poll for reform as the Russian stuff hasn’t seemingly changed anything.

 

Labour leads Reform by 23%.

 

Joint-highest Reform %.

 

Joint-lowest Conservative %.

 

🇬🇧 Westminster VI (21-24 June):

 

Labour 42% (–)

Reform UK 19% (–)

Conservative 18% (–)

Lib Dem 12% (+1)

Green 6% (+1)

SNP 3% (–)

Other 2% (+1)

 

Changes +/- 19-20 June

At least the gap between Labour and Reform hasn’t shrunk. :clap: and LD and Greens increasing!!

 

 

 

@1805580531364438461

@1805596414677848436

Labour staying strong! Surprised Cons have increased.

Labour staying strong! Surprised Cons have increased.

 

a) It's within MoE

b) It's probably Con voters returning after the Russian comments.

Yup, gotta be the Russian stooge Ukraine comments that damaged Reform there. And where are those hard right voters gonna go? Con or Reform.

LAB: 37% (+1)

CON: 19% (-1)

RFM: 18% (=)

LDM: 13% (-1)

GRN: 6% (-1)

SNP: 3% (=)

 

19-20 Jun.

Changes w/ 17-18 Jun.

 

 

This from Yougov, personally I think this looks more correct, Tories on 25% is way out of sync with most polls

As expected, I do think far right populism and a media-obsessed leader can only take you so far (we are thankfully a bit different from the US in that regard), I imagine most of their projected seats will go back to Tories.

Now this one is a big surprise to me I thought it’d be pretty much a 50/50

 

Islington North Constituency Voting Intention:

 

LAB: 43% (-22)

IND (Corbyn): 29% (New)

LDM: 7% (-8)

GRN: 7% (-1)

RFM: 6% (+5)

CON: 6% (-4)

Others: 2% (+2)

 

20-25 Jun.

Changes w/ GE2019

 

Survation

 

Unless there was suspect methodology or independents hidden that’s pretty bad for Corbyn and Survation are fairly reliable. Think he might be done

Yeah been looking that way for a while now :(

Now this one is a big surprise to me I thought it’d be pretty much a 50/50

 

Islington North Constituency Voting Intention:

 

LAB: 43% (-22)

IND (Corbyn): 29% (New)

LDM: 7% (-8)

GRN: 7% (-1)

RFM: 6% (+5)

CON: 6% (-4)

Others: 2% (+2)

 

20-25 Jun.

Changes w/ GE2019

 

Survation

 

Unless there was suspect methodology or independents hidden that’s pretty bad for Corbyn and Survation are fairly reliable. Think he might be done

Given that the survey was done long after nominations closed, I assume they will have named each candidate. Not to do so would be poor practice.

The candidates were named. Survation's good with that.

 

Link to the table here: @1805648889447391416

 

It's hard to really call as it's a different split to everywhere in the country - the Corbyn campaign is by all accounts plastering the constituency but obviously even with that there will be enough Labour momentum from less engaged voters who vote via party/anyone who votes Labour normally but was not enthused by Corbyn.

 

Quick takeaways from that poll beyond the headline - undecided voters are leaning Nargund (Labour), Corbyn has higher favourables in Islington North than Starmer, Corbyn would beat Labour if it were only the 2 of them standing, and Isl N. voters marginally believe that the Labour Party was wrong to stop Corbyn standing - coupled of course with that it's a local poll with a tiny sample size so the usefulness of any conclusions beyond the headline poll is perhaps a little spurious.

 

Basically it's moved my assessment of the race there from being a 50-50 towards maybe 30-35% chance of Corbyn winning - as in, he could still do it but I'm less sure now.

@1805874453458342221

If the Tories get anything like what they’re predicted, the headlines on July 5th/6th are going to be horrendous… for them. “Worst Tory outcome in nearly 50 years”.

@1805999637909680318

 

Wouldn’t really put too much weight on this but interesting results one week out

@1805999637909680318

 

Wouldn’t really put too much weight on this but interesting results one week out

 

Why wouldn't you put weight on it? They were the most accurate prediction in 2019!!

 

If I was in CCHQ now this would absolutely terrify me. Thankfully I'm not and it looks amazing. Bar reform getting 18 seats - that seems odd and would be a bad thing.

Why wouldn't you put weight on it? They were the most accurate prediction in 2019!!

 

If I was in CCHQ now this would absolutely terrify me. Thankfully I'm not and it looks amazing. Bar reform getting 18 seats - that seems odd and would be a bad thing.

 

Well I wasn’t aware of that it just seemed a little out of sync with a few things but I guess it’s even more interesting given they were accurate in 2019. Definitely a plausible result

 

 

@1805977537140453390

@1805977537140453390

 

That has the Tories winning Clacton, utterly for the birds.