The campaign hasn't begun yet Michael. A lot can happen when it does.

 

If Sanders is the nominee all US news sites agree that he has to pick a good running mate, assuming he/she will be President. Not many think he'll last the 4 years. Trump should hammer that home.

Edited January 26, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

You mean the dirtiest campaign in history from Trump, plus Russian bot interference, plus voter suppression? Not enough when rhe Dems have a 10 point lead I'm afraid!

 

 

You mean the dirtiest campaign in history from Trump, plus Russian bot interference, plus voter suppression? Not enough when rhe Dems have a 10 point lead I'm afraid!

 

 

As I was reading earlier and I read a lot of US sites, the national poll lead isn't what matters though Michael. It's state polls, particularly in the ones that Trump took from the Dems last time that are more important.

Iowa poll is looking pretty damn good for Bernie only a week away, 30% up against 21% Biden. And Klobuchar 3rd in 13% for some godforsaken reason:

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/p...nears-viability

 

Sanders performs the strongest among voters under 50. 44% of those under 50 plan to support Sanders, followed by Warren with 10%; no other candidate reaches double digits. Among those over 50, voters are more split: 32% plan to support Biden, 18% plan to support Sanders, 17% Klobuchar, 15% Buttigieg, and 12% plan to caucus for Warren.

 

age gap dominates politics.

 

~

 

It IS an outlier poll, most of the others have it far closer, but other stats like 69% of Sanders supporters being set on their candidate fit with the suspected momentum.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/01/2...O3NftB9tIfBIQbU

 

Trump is scared of Bernie. The most recent reports say he is stressing and obsessed with Bernie winning the nomination.

From LA Times.

 

 

Last week's anti-Sanders stuff from the media and Democratic establishment appears to have helped him. This is Trump 2016 all over again but on the other side. I wonder if Hillary Clinton realises that every time she speaks out against someone they receive a boost in the polls? Warren has moved back a bit, her attempts to smear Sanders as sexist appear to have backfired. On current polling Biden has a lead over Sanders nationally, but the momentum is with Sanders and that is unlikely to change with the results of the first two states.

 

IMO Biden remains their best option to beat Trump.

I have a US lady on my Facebook who also lost her daughter around the same time as Rachel died. We chat a lot but she hates Trump. I asked her why. She said "well how long have you got?" LOL. She says he has "no morals, pervs on his own daughter, is dishonest, corrupt, very lazy, a liar, self-centred and even his wife hates him according to rumours". She does think he'll get a second term though as there are so many idiots in America.

Edited February 1, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

I feel really uneasy with certain post here banging on about people dying of a heart attack.

I feel really uneasy with certain post here banging on about people dying of a heart attack.

 

 

Well Bernie's had one and is statistically very likely at his age to have another. That's very important when he's wanting to be President. Trump hasn't had one as far as we know.

Edited February 1, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

Well Bernie's had one and is statistically very likely at his age to have another. That's very important when he's wanting to be President. Trump hasn't had one as far as we know.

 

Except we can pretty much surmise that has - this year too, in fact x

He came out the same day though. Now surely they keep you in at least a night if you've had a heart attack, even one that wasn't very severe. That's why I don't think he had one. Not just what they've said. My cousin had a mild one and was in a week.

Edited February 1, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

Again I don't care if you think it matters stop talking about the potential of someone having a heart attack it's unsavoury at best.

Except we can pretty much surmise that has - this year too, in fact x

 

Evidence?

Again I don't care if you think it matters stop talking about the potential of someone having a heart attack it's unsavoury at best.

 

 

Not when both men want to be POTUS which is a very stressful job.

Edited February 2, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

Iowa tonight boys. This is when it really starts. Sanders is looking pretty good, most of the last minute predictions I've seen have him winning over Biden or Warren.

 

why am I excited? I just am excited. Prove yourself, Bernie.

Yes much excitement over Iowa which I actually expect Bernie to win. Super Tuesday will be far more important though.

Gosh it sounds very complicated.

 

From Wiki

 

Absentee voting (i.e. by mail) or proxy voting is not allowed in the closed 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses, where only registered Democratic Iowans (who meet the requirement of being minimum 18 years old by November 3, 2020) can vote by their physical presence at their designated precinct caucus site. Iowans who have not registered as Democrats before the caucus day, can still register as such on caucus night itself at their designated precinct, and hereby gain full voting right at the event.[1]

 

1,678 Iowa precinct caucuses plus 99 satellite caucuses around the world (organized as alternative voting sites for registered Democratic Iowans who are prevented from voting locally at their precinct caucus) will all be held with doors being closed 7 p.m. CST on February 3, 2020, in order to elect precinct delegates for the subsequent county conventions and allocate the state's 41 pledged national delegates based upon the proportional accumulative result of all the precincts.[1]

 

In all precinct caucuses, the presidential candidates must meet a viability threshold within the individual precinct in order to qualify as a viable candidate:[2]

 

min. of 15% for the majority of precincts with more than three delegates.

min. of 16.67% for small precincts only electing three delegates.

min. of 25% for smaller precincts only electing two delegates.

min. of 50% for the smallest precincts only electing one delegate.

Supporters of viable candidates after the first initial voting will have their vote locked to their chosen presidential candidate. Supporters of non-viable candidates having received a result below the viability threshold in the first preliminary vote, however, are allowed to vote a final second time, where they can either choose to transfer their vote to one of the already established viable candidates or alternatively merge their non-viable group with another non-viable group in order to create a big enough group to qualify as a viable candidate.[2]

It is delightfully complicated, and actually sounds quite fun to take part in, interacting with other voters and making an evening of it. Though it has issues with pressure and the demand on time, so less states are doing it this cycle.

 

The interesting thing that could change the result is where the voters for your Klobuchars, Yangs, Steyers and possibly even Buttigieg or Warren in some precincts will go after the first round should they not meet that 15% threshold. There's guesses out that say like Klobuchar is more centrist so hers might go to Biden, Yang's more anti-establishment so his might go to Sanders, but then the thing about caucuses that makes them interesting is that enthusiastic supporters are the ones making the most effective arguments to switch, which definitely helps Sanders.

 

And Iowa is deceptively important, it tends to set the tone for later contests, so very important that your favoured candidate does well tonight. We'll probably be down to three or four candidates by Super Tuesday with most votes going to one of the top 2, which will really focus a lot of support.

First caucus declared for Bernie. It was a satellite caucus, Ottumwa, and only had 15 people, 14 of whom supported Bernie. 1 supported Warren.

One of the most interesting statistics I read in the last few days is that out of Andrew Yang's followers, 42% of them would not support another Democratic candidate if he wasn't nominated as their candidate (for context, it's 16% for Sanders and 0% for Warren). It seems that Yang is really popular with the sorts of people who wouldn't normally lean Democratic, which means that in the very low circumstances that he becomes the candidate, then there's a lot less of his supporters that could end up pivoting to Trump.