Posted March 15, 20214 yr I don't think we properly got into predictions last year due to the cancellation coming so soon after we knew all the entries Anyway, now that semi 2 is complete, here are my own personal initial predictions for this year Jaw on the floor if this doesn't get announced through Switzerland Bulgaria Iceland Very likely qualifiers San Marino Moldova Finland Squeezing IN Albania Greece Serbia Czech Republic Borderline OUT Estonia Poland Unlikely qualifiers Austria Denmark Latvia Georgia Portugal I think Portugal/Georgia/Latvia are all pretty much dead, but who knows what could be the "Nobody But You"/"Proud" jury moment of the year if there happens to be one! I think Polish diaspora or Estonia taking another average male to the final are the most likely upsets here, at the expense of - Czech Republic (a personal fave of mine that I feel will overperform compared to fan response, but maybe not?) - Serbia (Hurricane are huge in the Balkans as the Youtube views show, but is this the most friendly semi? I'm not sure) - Greece (I have questions about her vocal ability and how they're going to stage it - the once unstoppable Greece haven't had a top 15 since 2013!) And possibly Albania but it feels very standard '17th in the final' for them
March 15, 20214 yr Ok, so I've been working on an algorithm that takes note of each country's votes in the past both based on jury voting and televoting. Obviously it's quite flawed as I haven't found a way to take in things like genre and other factors but I made it so that it calculates previous voting patterns as well as my modifier which can increase or decrease a specific country's score if I disagreed with the way the votes looked at first. Here's what I've come up with for semi 2 but it's definitely bound to change once we draw closer to the contest. JURY VOTES TELEVOTES RESULTS Edited March 15, 20214 yr by diva thin muffin
March 15, 20214 yr Author Semi 1 Jaw on the floor if this doesn't get announced through Sweden Cyprus Lithuania Malta Very likely qualifiers Azerbaijan Russia Romania Squeezing IN Belgium Ireland Croatia Borderline OUT Norway Israel Ukraine Unlikely qualifiers Australia Slovenia North Macedonia As much as I love Australia, I'm excited at the prospect of no country having a 100% qualification record after this year, and I think it's a near certainty for Australia, they're gonna need a really strong jury vote because I think this will tank in the televote. Predicting Ukraine out also makes me nervous, could it really happen, but I saw them as being borderline IN last year and 'Shum' feels less accessible to me than 'Solovey', and potentially not having Belarus giving them votes could hurt them too. Belgium as a song I think is a likely qualifier, but staging could let them down. On the flipside of the coin, I think Israel as a song is unlikely to make the final, but Eden is such a good performer that she could really sell it. Norway...part of me is willing it to be a NQ to serve them right for not sending KEiiNO, but he's one of only four male vocal entries in the semi which could work in his favour. But my gut is saying that TIX is very much a 'local' act and the juries and public will just see the performance as being a bit too ridiculous. Both semis are semis of death. Yes, I love the glow up of semi 2 this year!
March 15, 20214 yr Ok, so I've been working on an algorithm that takes note of each country's votes in the past both based on jury voting and televoting. Obviously it's quite flawed as I haven't found a way to take in things like genre and other factors but I made it so that it calculates previous voting patterns as well as my modifier which can increase or decrease a specific country's score if I disagreed with the way the votes looked at first. Here's what I've come up with for semi 2 but it's definitely bound to change once we draw closer to the contest. JURY VOTES Am I getting this right? You made a prediction on the juries giving Switzerland 187 and then you divide up that 187 based on previous voting patterns? Otherwise, I dont understand how this works. Edited March 15, 20214 yr by Colm
March 15, 20214 yr Am I getting this right? You made a prediction on the juries giving Switzerland 187 and then you divide up that 187 based on previous voting patterns? Otherwise, I dont understand how this works. Noo, it's far more complex than that I'm afraid haha. I collected all votes from nation X to nation Y since 2010. The algorithm I created then calculates the votes for each nation by looking at: - How many points a nation has given to a specific country the last 11 years both for the jury votes and televotes. - (divided by) How many points a nation has had the opportunity to give that specific country over the last 11 years both for the jury votes and televotes. - The score modifier I gave each country to adjust accordingly. It's very automated and if I change the modifier for one country it affects all countries on my list but it works well and delivers semi-realistic results even though some countries are always unrealistically skewed in their scores so I have to scale them down further with the modifier (eg. Sweden in jury votes, Russia in televotes, etc). I'm finishing up a similar one for Semi 1 now that Malta's song is out!
March 15, 20214 yr Semi 1 Almost certain: Malta, Sweden, Lithuania, Cyprus Most probably: Azerbaijan, Ireland, Russia Borderline (leaning towards in): Belgium, Romania, Borderline (leaning towards out): Norway, Israel, Croatia Most probably DNQ: Ukraine Almost certain DNQ: Slovenia, Australia, Macedonia (and Belarus) Semi 2 Almost certain: Switzerland, Bulgaria, San Marino Most probably: Iceland, Finland, Moldova Borderline (leaning towards in): Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia Borderline (leaning towards out): Albania, Serbia, Greece Most probably DNQ: Latvia, Georgia, Austria, Denmark, Portugal Semi 2 feels too clear cut to the point I bet two of the ones I have bottom will snatch it from something we feel is obvious and cause a huge upset :lol: Eurovision is just never that simple.
March 15, 20214 yr Noo, it's far more complex than that I'm afraid haha. I collected all votes from nation X to nation Y since 2010. The algorithm I created then calculates the votes for each nation by looking at: - How many points a nation has given to a specific country the last 11 years both for the jury votes and televotes. - (divided by) How many points a nation has had the opportunity to give that specific country over the last 11 years both for the jury votes and televotes. - The score modifier I gave each country to adjust accordingly. It's very automated and if I change the modifier for one country it affects all countries on my list but it works well and delivers semi-realistic results even though some countries are always unrealistically skewed in their scores so I have to scale them down further with the modifier (eg. Sweden in jury votes, Russia in televotes, etc). I'm finishing up a similar one for Semi 1 now that Malta's song is out! Is it the score modifier that is key to Switzerland, Iceland and Bulgaria being top 3. Sorry if I appear stupid. Edited March 15, 20214 yr by Colm
March 15, 20214 yr Is it the score modifier that is key to Switzerland, Iceland and Bulgaria being top 3. Sorry if I appear stupid. Yes and no. The score modifier essentially either increases or decreases the score a specific country has. Without the modifiers it's a somewhat level playing field with Bulgaria and Portugal sticking out a bit thanks to good scores in recent years while everyone else has somewhere between 30 and 80 points on each side. Semi Final #1 This was a bit tougher to predict so that I'd be happy although I'm still not really. A lot of these will depend on staging and hype leading up to the contest. A lot of countries in this semi have some STRONGGG diaspora that was hard to affect and it's a very uneven playing field as these songs are very much either jury darlings or televote hogs or something quite unclear. I'm still unsure whether the juries will actually like Malta or Australia or Russia for instance and I have no idea if the televoters will like Ukraine or Norway because they're a bit out there but could totally work. So here's what I came up with.. JURY VOTES TELEVOTES RESULTS Edited March 15, 20214 yr by diva thin muffin
March 15, 20214 yr So starting with Semi One (i.e. the deathiest of death semis) I see it going something like this 01 Malta 02 Lithuania 03 Sweden 04 Azerbaijan 05 Croatia 06 Cyprus 07 Belgium 08 Ireland 09 Norway 10 Russia 11 North Macedonia 12 Ukraine 13 Australia 14 Romania 15 Slovenia 16 Israel 17 Belarus (if they're still showing up lol) North Macedonia are being undersold as I think that could really come to life live on stage Russia could run the risk of having very little appeal outside the Russosphere and not exactly being jury catnip Norway will probably qualify on televotes alone Israel potentially accidentally last Pretty certain the top 3 of the semi is Malta, Lithuania and Sweden Ukraine and Australia strongly at risk of losing their 100% streak
March 15, 20214 yr For Semi Two my very early predictions would be 01 Iceland 02 Bulgaria 03 Greece 04 San Marino 05 Switzerland 06 Moldova 07 Finland 08 Czech Republic 09 Albania 10 Estonia 11 Denmark 12 Serbia 13 Poland 14 Portugal 15 Latvia 16 Austria 17 Georgia Serbia's got very little of its usual supporters in this semi and coupled with the tendency for the boring bast*rd juries to vote down songs like that I could see them really struggling The flip side is that Albania has a lot of neighbour votes to draw on and could be the semi closer so I'm pencilling them in as through. I'm pretty confident all of that top seven will be in and I opted for Czech Republic and Estonia as the two borderline qualifiers based on Estonia's nordic, baltic and soviet bloc support and the Czechs having the best song of those borderline ones. Denmark may actually surprise people by being something non threatening and boppy in the second half of semi 2 surrounded by a lot of weird/challenging stuff I think Switzerland will be a jury darling but utterly ignored by televoters meaning it qualifies.
March 15, 20214 yr Semi 1: Defo: Sweden Cyprus Malta Lithuania Likely: Azerbaijan Slovenia Ukraine Borderline-In: Russia Croatia Romania Borderline-Out: Australia Belgium North Macedonia Israel Unlikely: Ireland Norway Belarus Semi 2: Defo: Iceland Bulgaria Switzerland Likely: Greece Moldova Latvia San Marino Borderline-In: Czech Republic Finland Albania Borderline-Out: Serbia Austria Unlikely: Estonia Poland DOA: Denmark Portugal Georgia Semi 1 is a *lot* more difficult to predict.
March 16, 20214 yr Initial predictions: Semi Final 1: 01 Sweden 02 Malta 03 Lithuania 04 Cyprus 05 Russia 06 Australia 07 Belgium 08 Ireland 09 North Macedonia 10 Ukraine --- 11 Romania 12 Croatia 13 Azerbaijan 14 Slovenia 15 Norway 16 Israel Semi Final 2: 01 Switzerland 02 Bulgaria 03 Iceland 04 Finland 05 San Marino 06 Estonia 07 Moldova 08 Albania 09 Czech Republic 10 Portugal --- 11 Greece 12 Denmark 13 Serbia 14 Georgia 15 Austria 16 Latvia 17 Poland
March 21, 20214 yr Semi 1 01. Malta 02. Lithuania 03. Sweden 04. Belgium 05. Russia 06. Ireland 07. Romania 08. Cyprus 09. Norway 10. Ukraine 11. Azerbaijan 12. Croatia 13. Slovenia 14. Australia 15. North Macedonia 16. Israel None of these feel dead on arrival? Eden is a fierce live performer so it seems ridiculous to have her last but like Lex said, it could be a case of accidental last. But with the revamp coming it could also quite easily knock Croatia/Azerbaijan/Cyprus down to accidental last. On the flip side I'm only confident of my top 3 qualifying at the moment, such a close semi! Semi 2 01. Switzerland 02. Iceland 03. San Marino 04. Finland 05. Bulgaria 06. Czech Republic 07. Greece 08. Moldova 09. Estonia 10. Albania 11. Denmark 12. Poland 13. Serbia 14. Austria 15. Portugal 16. Georgia 17. Latvia I think the bottom 3 I've put here will need a miracle to get to Saturday night, Vincent has the advantage of being the sole ballad in a VERY uptempo first half so perhaps he could do it especially if the juries go for it but I'm yet to be convinced. I'm already preparing for a Hurricane DNQ, they've got very few neighbours to help them through. The top 8 I'm pretty certain on making it through at the moment.
March 21, 20214 yr I’d be astonished if Cyprus are in any danger, I think they’ll be comfortably top five in Semi 1 with Malta, Sweden and Lithuania. It’s a big song and I’m sure they’ll go all out with the performance and staging. I agree that beyond that it’s almost impossible to call. I suspect Russia and Norway will qualify though, both with a decent showing on the televote. I’m concerned for Australia but the only one I think I’d be mildly surprised at going through is Croatia, not that it sounds like a last placer in the semi but it could happen. In Semi 2 I think Denmark could do surprisingly ok, at least enough to qualify. I agree though Adam about your top eight going through, perhaps at the expense of Estonia or Albania.
March 21, 20214 yr I’d be astonished if Cyprus are in any danger, I think they’ll be comfortably top five in Semi 1 with Malta, Sweden and Lithuania. I definitely think it's more likely to go through than not, although Tamta only came 9th in the semi and with Greece in semi 2 they're down 24 points before they start so I can see an, albeit unlikely, scenario where it turns out to be the fan fave flop of the year.
March 21, 20214 yr I can’t see a path for Norway? To anyone outside of Norway, he looks like he’s basically taking the piss. Without the aesthetic, it’s a drippy, dated boyband song. Juries will likely kill it. I also think Croatia is being relatively underestimated. She’s up against lots of bops but she has great attack, a very hooky song that has immediacy. Not suggesting it’s a likely qualifier but I’m semi-expecting to see Albina on Saturday. Edited March 21, 20214 yr by ScottyEm
March 21, 20214 yr I can’t see a path for Norway? To anyone outside of Norway, he looks like he’s basically taking the piss. Without the aesthetic, it’s a drippy, dated boyband song. Juries will likely kill it. It has a very instant melody and is the sort of thing I could imagine being popular with younger audiences, partly due to the aesthetic, but it also sounds like the sort of thing that could potentially blow up on TikTok, it feels a bit hairbrush karaoke. It is dated but at the same time it’s not too dissimilar to something like The Kid Laroi. I think it will do ok to badly with the juries but come surprisingly high in the televote, so I do see it scraping in.
March 21, 20214 yr I'm doing this without regard to where in the running order each song is, vote-friendly neighbours in the same semi or historical voting patterns. Just basically going on how accessible/quality the songs are and how much of a buzz is going on for each song. Yes, I do understand how much the fabric of the universe would be ripped if Ukraine don't qualify. Semi 1 1 Malta 2 Sweden 3 Cyprus 4 Azerbaijan 5 Romania 6 Lithuania 7 Ireland 8 Croatia 9 Norway 10 Israel 11 Belgium 12 Australia 13 Slovenia 14 Ukraine 15 Russia 16 North Macedonia Semi 2 1 Switzerland 2 Finland 3 Bulgaria 4 Iceland 5 San Marino 6 Greece 7 Czech Republic 8 Moldova 9 Serbia 10 Poland 11 Estonia 12 Albania 13 Denmark 14 Portugal 15 Georgia 16 Latvia 17 Austria
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