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Spotify & Apple Music Chart Discussion

danG
in UK Charts

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is drake expected to beat iron maiden ?

 

With album averages I can't see how he can from streaming, his averages will be awful, you just have to look at the 900k gap between Track 1 and Track 21 on Drake's album, people aren't finishing it and there dropping it track by track so it's hard to see them coming back to it this week.

 

For the tracks that matter it's 600k.

Edited by chartfridays

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That's impressive for Charli :o not far off the top 50 factoring in the '3 track' rule. Still doubt she'll get much playlist support beyond this point but one can hope I guess

 

Corpse Husband back in the streaming charts again *_*

3 Track Ruled Top 20

 

 

#1 Girls Want Girls - Drake

#2 Champagne Poetry - Drake

#3 Fair Trade W(With Travis Scott) - Drake

#4 Stay - Justin Bieber with Kid Laroi

#5 Bad Habits - Ed Sheeran

#6 Good 4 U - Olivia Rodrigo

#7 Hurricane - Kanye West

#8 Industry Baby - Lil Nas X, Jack Harlow

#9 Remember - Becky Hill, David Guetta

#10 Black Magic - Jonasu

#11 Heat Waves - Glass Animals

#12 OUT OUT - Joel Corry, Charli XCX, Saweetie, Jax Jones

#13 Clash - Stormzy ft Dave

#14 Need To Know - Doja Cat

#15 Woman - Doja Cat

#16 Happier Than Ever - Billie Eilish

#17 Don't Shut Me Down - ABBA

#18 Wasted - ArrDee ft Digga D

#19 I Still Have Faith in You - ABBA

#20 Off The Grid - Kanye West

Drake beat the most streams in a single day record on US Spotify, taking the record from Driver's Licence. The gap between them was just 600 streams as well

Those numbers...

And with 17 hours only.

Good for him

Dont think anyone was expecting such a massive response

Pity the music is so terrible

His ghost songwriters must be 16 or something

 

A bit of a rough calculation for what sales to expect for Drake this week ~

 

The first day total of the 3rd through 12th most popular tracks from 'Scorpion' on Spotify was 6,178,814, 'Certified Lover Boy' has done 7,399,748 first day for the relevant tracks so if it holds up exactly as well as 'Scorpion' did (may be a big if considering the reception to the album has not been amazing, though then again 'Scorpion' wasn't exactly super acclaimed either) and if the Spotify/non-Spotify market share is still roughly the same as it was for 'Scorpion' (might be a fair assumption as, per my post in the Drake vs. Iron Maiden thread, the Spotify market share for 'Scorpion' was about the same as it was for recent big album bombs by Dave and Olivia Rodrigo) that would translate to his streaming sales for the week being a little under 20% higher than they were for 'Scorpion', around 59.5k.

 

'Scorpion' also did ~14k pure sales which looks like it was download only (it didn't enter the physical sales chart in its first week so if it did have a physical release it sold negligible amounts), I think CLB is download only too, hard to imagine it having a similar level of downloads just due to the sheer drop in the size of the download album market but I'm sure it should still do at least a few thousand so the album has a good chance at doing 60k+ again as long as its streams don't end up tanking massively more than 'Scorpion' did. ('Scorpion', for reference, had a x4.19 increase for the total streams of its 3rd-12th tracks from day 1 to the full week - this multiplier does seem to be quite variable for album bombs though, it was a bit less than that for Dave (x3.46) and quite a bit more for Olivia (x6.41), I guess it makes sense that the Dave tracks had slightly less replayability as there weren't many overtly commercial songs on his album and of course Olivia's album bomb held up pretty unprecedentedly well).

 

So yeah, I think Drake has the #1 this week unless Iron Maiden increase their sales from their last album. Which I guess they might do? Really have no idea :lol:

 

Track by track comparison for the first day totals of CLB vs. Scorpion (only looking at tracks 3 through 12):

 

1,029,264 vs. 733,506 (+40.3%)

903,054 vs. 731,647 (+23.4%)

865,380 vs. 685,602 (+26.2%)

862,902 vs. 652,473 (+32.3%)

797,892 vs. 631,688 (+26.3%)

678,530 vs. 599,297 (+13.2%)

609,443 vs. 557,163 (+9.38%)

573,406 vs. 551,114 (+4.04%)

547,619 vs. 521,258 (+5.06%)

532,258 vs. 515,066 (+3.34%)

 

So CLB did consistently get higher numbers than Scorpion across all the relevant tracks but it was a bit more top heavy (despite having fewer tracks overall!) with the last couple of tracks doing only very slightly more than the corresponding Scorpion tracks. That may already be indicating people are getting bored of CLB quicker?

A bit of a rough calculation for what sales to expect for Drake this week ~

 

The first day total of the 3rd through 12th most popular tracks from 'Scorpion' on Spotify was 6,178,814, 'Certified Lover Boy' has done 7,399,748 first day for the relevant tracks so if it holds up exactly as well as 'Scorpion' did (may be a big if considering the reception to the album has not been amazing, though then again 'Scorpion' wasn't exactly super acclaimed either) and if the Spotify/non-Spotify market share is still roughly the same as it was for 'Scorpion' (might be a fair assumption as, per my post in the Drake vs. Iron Maiden thread, the Spotify market share for 'Scorpion' was about the same as it was for recent big album bombs by Dave and Olivia Rodrigo) that would translate to his streaming sales for the week being a little under 20% higher than they were for 'Scorpion', around 59.5k.

 

'Scorpion' also did ~14k pure sales which looks like it was download only (it didn't enter the physical sales chart in its first week so if it did have a physical release it sold negligible amounts), I think CLB is download only too, hard to imagine it having a similar level of downloads just due to the sheer drop in the size of the download album market but I'm sure it should still do at least a few thousand so the album has a good chance at doing 60k+ again as long as its streams don't end up tanking massively more than 'Scorpion' did. ('Scorpion', for reference, had a x4.19 increase for the total streams of its 3rd-12th tracks from day 1 to the full week - this multiplier does seem to be quite variable for album bombs though, it was a bit less than that for Dave (x3.46) and quite a bit more for Olivia (x6.41), I guess it makes sense that the Dave tracks had slightly less replayability as there weren't many overtly commercial songs on his album and of course Olivia's album bomb held up pretty unprecedentedly well).

 

So yeah, I think Drake has the #1 this week unless Iron Maiden increase their sales from their last album. Which I guess they might do? Really have no idea :lol:

 

Track by track comparison for the first day totals of CLB vs. Scorpion (only looking at tracks 3 through 12):

 

1,029,264 vs. 733,506 (+40.3%)

903,054 vs. 731,647 (+23.4%)

865,380 vs. 685,602 (+26.2%)

862,902 vs. 652,473 (+32.3%)

797,892 vs. 631,688 (+26.3%)

678,530 vs. 599,297 (+13.2%)

609,443 vs. 557,163 (+9.38%)

573,406 vs. 551,114 (+4.04%)

547,619 vs. 521,258 (+5.06%)

532,258 vs. 515,066 (+3.34%)

 

So CLB did consistently get higher numbers than Scorpion across all the relevant tracks but it was a bit more top heavy (despite having fewer tracks overall!) with the last couple of tracks doing only very slightly more than the corresponding Scorpion tracks. That may already be indicating people are getting bored of CLB quicker?

 

That’s confusing me even reading it :lol:

 

TL;DR his streams are about 20% higher overall today than on the first day of 'Scorpion' so he'll do about 60k streams for the week if that holds up all week xx

 

(I don't think it was very confusing but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)

It was pretty clear that people didn't listen to the whole album en masse. Going from 11.8m (opener, album track) to 3.8m (closer, album track) is by far the most drastic drop in percentage I've seen for such a high profile album. For comparison, the Dawn of Chromatica has 519k (opener) 473k (closer), and the lowest streamed album track has over 52% of the streams of the opening track. It's pretty normal to lose half of the listeners during the album but losing 68% is something else.

Edited by Sour Candy

Good for him

Dont think anyone was expecting such a massive response

Pity the music is so terrible

His ghost songwriters must be 16 or something

 

Might as well get your target audience to write the songs

It was pretty clear that people didn't listen to the whole album en masse. Going from 11.8m (opener, album track) to 3.8m (closer, album track) is by far the most drastic drop in percentage I've seen for such a high profile album. For comparison, the Dawn of Chromatica has 519k (opener) 473k (closer), and the lowest streamed album track has over 52% of the streams of the opening track.

 

In fairness the dropoff from track 1 to the final track in global first day Spotify streams is more or less exactly the same as it was for 'Scorpion' (very, very marginally more - the final track on 'Scorpion' did 32.9% of the first track, while the final track on CLB did 32.8% of the first track).

 

But yeah, it's not really surprising if people are tuning out partway through Drake's bloated messes more than they do for other major albums. I guess his strategy is more to just put so many tracks on his albums that most people listening will take away at least 3 or 4 of them rather than getting people to keep revisiting the entire album.

OMG. The link is not updated for me and I don't understand why.
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