Posted March 13, 20223 yr At time of writing we're waiting on one full entry, one upgrade to a demo and one will they/won't they entry change but, with enough songs confirmed for the first semi final at least, we can begin to dip our toes into the predictions game for 2022. A word before we begin though, nearly everybody who makes a prediction will get something wrong and something bang on the money so be accepting of the fact that what might seem like a dumb call could turn out to be a genius bit of foresight and what looks like the obvious call might look like utter madness come May 15th. So, Buzzjack; start predicting NOW!
March 13, 20223 yr Author So at the current state of play in Semi Final One I'd call it like so; Safe Norway Greece Ukraine Any of these three not qualifying (if Ukraine make it to Turin!) would be a complete shocker. At this stage I can see Greece winning the semis jury vote and Norway being the clear televote favourite and Ukraine doing reasonably well across both. Solid Albania Netherlands Austria Latvia Reasonably sure all of these will qualify but I would be less shocked if we lost one of these than the top 3. Albania has one of the few high energy numbers and a strong voter base to rely on. Netherlands could potentially be a Greece spoiler and get the jury win but regardless of televote it'll probably qualify on jury votes alone. Austria is also bringing the only other really high energy song in the second half but a questionable live performance could drag it down. And I toyed with putting Latvia is the borderline group but I think the televote will be pretty strong and musically there's enough there for them to get enough credit from juries that it won't drag them down too far. Borderline IN Moldova Switzerland Armenia I think a lot of people are sleeping on Moldova slightly but I feel like they're going to bring the happiness and energy that will give it enough of a kick to get them over the line. Switzerland and Armenia are both 50/50 calls and obviously the latter is subject to being revised up or down depending on the final version but my gut is telling me that both of them have less drag issues than the borderline out group. Borderline OUT Lithuania Denmark Croatia Sentimentai feels a bit like the Lithuanian "Bigger Than The Universe" in that its appeal outside of its own country is a little bit lost and Denmark and Croatia both feel that little bit too anonymous to really excite a strong voter base but all three of these songs could make it through instead of a borderline one if somebody bombs it. Struggling Iceland Portugal Both of these songs will have an uphill struggle to get enough televotes to be in contention for qualifying but both should score well with juries to the point where I wouldn't be shocked to see one of them pull through but they'd probably need to be top 3 with the jury vote to stand a chance. Out Slovenia Bulgaria Both will likely be on early and don't have enough inbuilt voter support or musical quality in their compositions to do much with either jury or televotes. -x- Obviously, this is all just my opinion!
March 13, 20223 yr I could very well imagine these ten qualifying from the first semi final: ALBANIA ARMENIA AUSTRIA GREECE ICELAND LATVIA NETHERLANDS NORWAY PORTUGAL UKRAINE Borderline In: Albania, Armenia, Greece, Iceland, Portugal Borderline Out: Switzerland, Croatia and Moldova. Hard to say reg. Armenia atm. I'll see if I change my mind after the final version.
March 15, 20223 yr Ukraine is winning if they don't pull out Yeah I can see that happening. Even if they got minimal jury vote, public vote is going to be soooooo big that it won’t matter
March 15, 20223 yr Yeh i can’t see anyone other than ukraine winning tbh, they could break the record for most public votes
March 15, 20223 yr If Ukraine do win, i wonder how it will work out with hosting with how things are in the country right now.
March 15, 20223 yr Have people heard Ukraine/the entire field of songs? If Alina Pash hadn't been forced to pull out I think they would've been a locked in winner, but I think this song could have enough jury drag that it can manage top 3/top 5 at most and not be the televote landslide that people expect. I saw it mentioned elsewhere that without sympathy on their side, this song would probably be looking at top 15 and I'd agree with that. If Ukraine do win, i wonder how it will work out with hosting with how things are in the country right now. Offered to the runner up or Germany/UK I imagine (an Australian win sorta scenario)
March 15, 20223 yr Have people heard Ukraine/the entire field of songs? Yup, I agree Alina Pash would be a sure winner for Ukraine. I want to see GIRLZZZZ representing Ukraine as well because it sounds fun but I do think it is not the best song for them. I miss both BOMBA and Mavka :( Both didn't make the final cut and would also have been amazing choices for Ukraine.
March 15, 20223 yr I suspect it would have come safely top ten regardless, it's very catchy, unique and - as is often the way - very authentic to Ukrainian culture. This will be even more of a draw this year so I can't see personally how Ukraine won't win the televote in a big way. How the juries will vote is anyone's guess but I can't see that it will be dragged down so far that it will take it out of contention, I think they will be pretty generous to it too. My current guess for it is 170 with the juries and 350 on the televote, what else in the current field could get 520 points? Maybe Brividi I guess if it ends up as the big jury fave, as it will obviously also do well on the televote.
March 15, 20223 yr Have people heard Ukraine/the entire field of songs? If Alina Pash hadn't been forced to pull out I think they would've been a locked in winner, but I think this song could have enough jury drag that it can manage top 3/top 5 at most and not be the televote landslide that people expect. I saw it mentioned elsewhere that without sympathy on their side, this song would probably be looking at top 15 and I'd agree with that. Offered to the runner up or Germany/UK I imagine (an Australian win sorta scenario) THIS!! Their song is awful :( Hers was amazing. It really is a shame that they sent last year's song last year. It would have ROMPED home this year, absolute banger, and would have been the nest winner perhaps, well, ever.
March 15, 20223 yr Author The situation is so unprecedented that there's really no way to solidly prove what's going to happen with Ukraine this year until the day of the final BUT my gut is telling me that the Ukraine winning odds are being overpriced. Not that it won't do well but it's at least a believable sequence of events where, say, the producers want a hassle-free job on deciding the next hosts so conveniently stick it on early to dampen down their televote score and the juries aren't too fussed which caps their position at about 5th or something. My gut, which is all I really have to go on here, tells me that people will obviously be sympathetic given the circumstances but they'll have to actually like an enjoy the song if they're going to go to the effort of voting for it.
March 15, 20223 yr I cannot see Ukraine winning. Sure there will be a sympathy vote but I think it might be less than is touted, for a variety of reasons not least the song. It's not well set up to be a sympathy entry, outside of being a very authentic Ukrainian entry, but perhaps TOO authentic to reach a wider audience in its natural state. I agree, it'd likely be 10th-15th or thereabouts devoid of what's happening. I also can't really see, at this early stage, the juries ranking it higher than Sweden, Italy and Greece at the least and perhaps some other entries depending on what ends up doing well out of rehearsals.
March 15, 20223 yr I am feeling podium or top 5 finish for the UK... The juries will eat those vocals up
March 16, 20223 yr The situation is so unprecedented that there's really no way to solidly prove what's going to happen with Ukraine this year until the day of the final BUT my gut is telling me that the Ukraine winning odds are being overpriced. Not that it won't do well but it's at least a believable sequence of events where, say, the producers want a hassle-free job on deciding the next hosts so conveniently stick it on early to dampen down their televote score and the juries aren't too fussed which caps their position at about 5th or something. My gut, which is all I really have to go on here, tells me that people will obviously be sympathetic given the circumstances but they'll have to actually like an enjoy the song if they're going to go to the effort of voting for it. I more or less agree, Eurovision fans will have empathy for their horrific situation but if viewers dont like the song I dont think they will vote and pay for a vote for a song they may not like.
March 16, 20223 yr I don't understand why I would vote for a song I don't really like in ESC. And sure lots of people think similarly.
March 16, 20223 yr I cannot see Ukraine winning. Sure there will be a sympathy vote but I think it might be less than is touted, for a variety of reasons not least the song. It's not well set up to be a sympathy entry, outside of being a very authentic Ukrainian entry, but perhaps TOO authentic to reach a wider audience in its natural state. I agree, it'd likely be 10th-15th or thereabouts devoid of what's happening. I also can't really see, at this early stage, the juries ranking it higher than Sweden, Italy and Greece at the least and perhaps some other entries depending on what ends up doing well out of rehearsals. I guess there is also the argument that the sympathy vote has been time and time again proven to not really work in Eurovision. Germany's Corinna May was the pre-contest favourite to win in 2002 and much of the media rhetoric around this is because she was blind - she came 21st. Sjonni's Friends in 2011 for Iceland obviously had a very sad and touching back story, and it finished 20th. Surie had the stage invasion in 2018 and suddenly leapt to the top five in the betting odds after her performance with lots of people thinking her resillience to get up and finish the song would see her rewarded in the televote - she got 25 points from the public. So often there is an anticipated sympathy/support vote at Eurovision that never materialises. Still, it's very hard to gauge with the Ukraine situation as it is so unique and horrifying, will people be more likely to show their support via their vote for this? It would be a powerful statement at this moment for Ukraine to win Eurovision and I do think many voters will in fact vote with this in mind - maybe not enough for them to win though. I do think regardless of everything the Ukrainian entry would have been a top ten finisher anyway, so it's not like it was a lost cause to start with musically, which will help as it arguably has a stronger platform than those examples above to start from.
March 16, 20223 yr Another factor which will perhaps go in Ukraines favour is taking votes from ex-soviet states which would’ve otherwise gone to Russia. With a empathic Televote score, I can totally envisage an overall victory for Ukraine.
March 21, 20223 yr Author So with the full lineup confirmed for Semi Final 2, this is how I see things shaking out; Safe Sweden Poland Would truly be shooketh to see either of these two fail at this hurdle. Solid Finland Cyprus Estonia All three of these songs I can see having reliable televote and jury scores that shouldn't put them in danger but not technically impossible for one of them to bomb and let another borderline one through. Borderline IN Montenegro Ireland Australia Czech Republic Malta I actually toyed with putting Montenegro in the next section up but ended up sneaking it into this section down to their questionable track record. Everything else from Ireland to Israel is actually very close together but my gut is telling me that Ireland and Czech Republic will be favoured well in the running order and have enough banger energy to get them over the line and Australia and Malta will likely be jury saves. Borderline OUT Romania Azerbaijan Belgium Israel These four could all pose a threat to one of the borderliners if one of them screws up (like, say, Czech Republic has issues with the live performance). Romania and Israel are probably Ireland/Czechs biggest threats and Azerbaijan and Belgium could usurp Australia or Malta as jury picks. Struggling North Macedonia Georgia San Marino Both North Macedonia and Georgia I see struggling to be memorable (which I didn't expect to say for an act called 'Circus Mircus') and San Marino needs good jury support if its going to overcome its natural televote drag and Stripper...is not the song to do that! Nope Serbia Virtually no appeal to anyone outside the ex-Yugo countries and their diaspora - would be extremely surprised if this qualifies. -x- So Semi 2 is a lot harder to call beyond those five safe qualifiers - could very well go one of several ways.
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