October 17, 2024Oct 17 Well I’m going by https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-pol...election/winner not polymarket which is very different, they are crypto based. The proper bookmakers are more stable Yes, but they will obviously be reacting to a shift in the market that huge as otherwise they're vulnerable to arbitrage. This is where that shift in the market is coming from.
October 18, 2024Oct 18 Bookmakers are bookmakers, not pollsters.  Am sure Hillary was favourite in 2016 but can anyone remember who was favourite 2-3 weeks out last time?
October 18, 2024Oct 18 Biden was certainly the odds-on favourite in 2020.  I was very confident of his victory at this point in October and most forecasts were predicting a somewhat wider EC margin than he actually ended up getting, with Florida, North Carolina and possibly Ohio regarded as gettable over and above what he did get - losing Florida in particular was a shock considering the victory in Georgia. Though the bookmakers were quite accurate that election, they were a little bit more bearish than the forecasters on Biden's chances, which turned out to be right. Which doesn't mean they're right this time. I don't put much stock in analysis that bases a key piece of info, like polling error or early voting stats or betting odds, as a comparison with a previous election. Each election has these unknown variables and they're rarely more accurate (and often less accurate) than listening to general feelings from voters about the state of politics, otherwise known as vibes.  My reasoning for why this is a 50/50 election outside of following the herd is that this would be a Republican's election to lose due to bad vibes (vibes over reality even though the US economy is actually roaring compared to where it was at the start of Biden's term) on the economy, almost always the most significant issue, but they've picked a candidate with a high amount of unfavourables and key weaknesses with democracy (voters like democracy and punish those seemingly against it) and abortion (motivates women to vote against you). So despite vibes showing voters wish to shift towards a Republican environment, they're reticent with Trump on the ticket. Kamala's vibes are good overall hence why she's still in the race, but not outstanding. If Trump was the incumbent (ignore that he'd be running for a 3rd term), she'd win this easy.
October 18, 2024Oct 18 Am sure Hillary was favourite in 2016 but can anyone remember who was favourite 2-3 weeks out last time? Well looking it up now it was closer than I recall. They had Biden 2/7 and Trump 3/1. Though on October 30 it became Biden 2/5 Trump 2/1 as people began to think Trump might pull off a surprise win again. Biden was favoured to get between 320-350 in the EC as the most likely option.  This is probably the only time Trump has been slightly seen as favourite in his three election runs
October 20, 2024Oct 20 My prediction is Trump will win the US election. He was ahead in the polls for a significant period, before Harris took over & changed the course of the race. Things have tightened again during the past 2 weeks with Trump momentum appearing to increase again.
October 20, 2024Oct 20 The mefis there is dedperste for a two horde rsce. They ALWAYS ssy things have tightened beforehand. ALWAYS.
October 20, 2024Oct 20 My prediction is Trump will win the US election. He was ahead in the polls for a significant period, before Harris took over & changed the course of the race. Things have tightened again during the past 2 weeks with Trump momentum appearing to increase again.  It all depends who can get their voters out. Some Dems seemingly won't vote for Harris but certainly don't want Trumpy so will stay at home and vice-versa.
October 20, 2024Oct 20 Actually Chris id reet tbh!! In polarised elections, in this case fascists and democrats, it all depends on turnout.
October 23, 2024Oct 23 Seems like this is Trump's to lose now. Odds shortening for him and lengthening for Kamala. Polling has him up now in nearly every swing state. Trump win is my prediction now. Many people will be very unhappy.
October 23, 2024Oct 23 On the one hand, that he's dominating the conversation about the election in a way that Kamala isn't, nearly every talking point is framed according to Trump/Republican talking points (in part because of the IDIOTIC DNC campaign team that are allergic to challenging Republican framing), that McDonalds stunt was a rare good move from his team, and yes the polls are creeping up for him. It is certainly very possible he wins. On the other, the needle shift in the polls between now and a month ago has me, as I've detailed above, suspicious in that there's not much of an underlying cause. I don't like saying to distrust the polls, they're right more than they're not, it's their job after all but there's been enough conversation about flooding the zone and prior fundamentals etc that I at least feel reasonably confident in suspecting that if there's a polling miss at this point, it feels more likely that it will be in the Democrats' favour than the Republicans. (slightly incredulous that media both sides of the pond have chosen today to get angry at political volunteers from the UK flying themselves out to knock doors for Kamala, when it affects them too and is far from a new thing)
October 23, 2024Oct 23 Well I’ve always thought it’d be razor close but Trump might just win like 2016 but right now one of two things is happening. Either Trump is genuinely ahead and going to win or early voting is just being embraced by more Republicans than normal as Conservatives take awhile to get to grips with new ways of doing things. Do they really have more voters or is it just the same people voting earlier. I’m really not sure. Both sides have an interest in polls being close and there is a lot of propaganda and tactics around polling for turnout and other reasons.
October 23, 2024Oct 23 British politicians and party staff, from all parties, have worked in US elections for decades. Yet again, the press and broadcasters have decided that something that has been happening for ages is suddenly newsworthy.
October 23, 2024Oct 23 For me, it's the way Trump starts alleging it's breaking election law for a few volunteers with the spare time to cross the Atlantic to add their own individual labour only to the Democratic campaign... and then meanwhile you have Elon Musk jumping around like a dipshit (credit: Tim Walz) and promising cash giveaways for votes for Trump and apparently that, which comes in at about number one of things that are illegal in UK political campaigning, apparently that's all fine. OKAY THEN
October 23, 2024Oct 23 highkey hoping the media are wrong in the way that they are in 2022 midterms x
October 23, 2024Oct 23 For me, it's the way Trump starts alleging it's breaking election law for a few volunteers with the spare time to cross the Atlantic to add their own individual labour only to the Democratic campaign... and then meanwhile you have Elon Musk jumping around like a dipshit (credit: Tim Walz) and promising cash giveaways for votes for Trump and apparently that, which comes in at about number one of things that are illegal in UK political campaigning, apparently that's all fine. OKAY THEN This tbh!! Utterly disgraceful! And whyt he UK media is following the Trump tune... It's actusllt to Kamala's benefit to say she's behind. It encourages the people to get out the vote and srops people from protest voring ss much in the critical states. Shocking that iseemingly hslf the country is now fash or fash adjacent though!
October 24, 2024Oct 24 The midterms forecasted a Republican washout that never materialised and the last elections were before the insurrection and Roe v Wade, so I do think there's reason to doubt the polls this time (as well as them being well off for the last two elections), although it definitely feels like the momentum's fading from Harris and swing state polls are pointing to a Trump win so I can see how he's narrow favourite. Love seeing the UK Media feeding right into his hand with this non-story about Labour volunteers as well :/
October 24, 2024Oct 24 I mean the polls today are absolutely horrendous for Kamala Harris but polls are polls and anything can still happen but for Trump to be up nationally is pretty scary for her campaign really https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls
October 25, 2024Oct 25 I just don't know anymore. BOTH sides have good reason to say Trumo is up, but it will benefit the fascists - intimidation. I don't know why she abandoned rhe wierd attack line halfway through... However, last time GaGa released aeound politics, Brexshir happenef and then Trump, at the same time as her single releases, so...Â
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