I could see Brenda doing >150k in the final week to get close to her 2023 numbers.

 

“Iris” has been quietly establishing itself as a Top 40 contender by doing 14k per week for a while. It’s now on course to finish on 630k.

 

Yeah Iris got a very big boost from Deadpool on top of its already strong streaming presence, had it predicted as a top 40 finisher for quite a while. That would make 7 oldies in the top 40, plus 2 more if Mariah and Wham get there which they should

Stargazing on 938,729 according to Music Week. Wonder what that means Beyonce is on!

Oh I actually had Stargazing on 939k but bumped it up when I saw it had overtaken “Texas Hold ‘Em” - the latter must have really held up quite poorly then.

Following this week's sales I think we can likely rule out That's So True from making it, I predict it will end up on around 430k (assuming a 52 week year).

I still think Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree is very touch and go, think it could come down to how Boxing Day's streams are estimated.

 

This would be my current prediction:

 

In:

Last Christmas

All I Want for Christmas is You

I Love You, I'm Sorry

Somedays

KEHLANI

[Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree]

 

Out:

Take on Me

Brown Eyed Girl

My Love Mine All Mine :(

Dance the Night

Don't Look Back in Anger

[exes]

360 still in with a shout?

Edited December 6, 2024Dec 6 by gasman449

Yeah it's tricky to estimate its sales but I think it must have done at least 9k this week.

If both exes and Brenda don't end up doing enough I'd have it as the next most likely to make it ahead of Don't Look Back in Anger

Red Wine Supernova also certified gold this week, perhaps another late contender if it didn't do much in 2023. Depends on how well Dog Days and Linger are holding up

Nah no way - It must have done at least 25k last year and can't be doing much more than 8k a week at this point.

 

Dog Days are Over has garbage Spotify numbers but somehow its total weekly sales are decent enough, I'm amazed its still here but I think it should be just about safe.

Linger's dropped off a fair bit on Spotify recently tbf but I think it's probably pretty safe at this point.

“Linger” is looking very safe at #91. “Dog Days Are Over” at #94 slightly less safe but probably OK.

 

I’m thinking the 4 just outside last week and the 3 Christmas songs are the only real contenders for entering. 5 of the 7 should definitely enter with “Kehlani” and “360” more outside chances.

 

If all 7 entered, which seems unlikely to me, I think we could lose 1 of “Dog Days Are Over” and “The Sound Of Silence”.

If 6 entered “Exes” would probably be in trouble.

The 5 sitting ducks are “Dance the Night”, “Don’t Look Back In Anger”, “My Love Mine All Mine”, “Take On Me” and “Brown Eyed Girl”. At least 2 will likely be out already when we get this week’s chart.

Thought Sound of Silence was doing much better but hey ho. Hoping for as many 2024 releases to make it as possible anyway

Week 49:

 

1 1 1,927,000 Noah Kahan - Stick Season (2.46m)

2 2 1,716,000 Benson Boone - Beautiful Things

3 3 1,680,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso

4 4 1,660,000 Teddy Swims - Lose Control (1.77m)

5 5 1,405,000 Hozier - Too Sweet

6 6 1,277,000 Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy)

7 7 1,143,000 Billie Eilish - Birds Of A Feather

8 8 1,127,000 Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe

9 9 1,103,000 Dasha - Austin

10 10 1,090,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Please Please Please

 

11 11 1,010,000 Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer (2.20m)

12 12 958,000 Myles Smith - Stargazing

13 13 943,000 Beyoncé - Texas Hold ‘Em

14 14 937,000 Cassö with Raye & D Block Europe - Prada (1.54m)

15 15 867,000 Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help

16 16 834,000 Sophie Ellis-Bextor - Murder On The Dancefloor (1.84m)

17 17 819,000 Artemas - I Like The Way You Kiss Me

18 18 786,000 Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone - Fortnight

19 19 785,000 Tate McRae - Greedy (1.24m)

20 20 779,000 Michael Marcagi - Scared To Start

 

21 21 745,000 Djo - End Of Beginning

22 22 739,000 The Killers - Mr Brightside (6.03m)

23 23 725,000 Ariana Grande - We Can’t Be Friends (Wait For Your Love)

24 24 718,000 Natasha Bedingfield - Unwritten (1.90m)

25 28 715,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Taste

26 25 711,000 Eminem - Houdini

27 26 710,000 Mark Ambor - Belong Together

28 27 695,000 Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me (1.02m)

29 29 658,000 Tommy Richman - Million Dollar Baby

30 30 648,000 Benson Boone - Slow It Down

 

31 31 638,000 Ella Henderson featuring Rudimental - Alibi

32 32 613,000 Vance Joy - Riptide (4.20m)

33 40 609,000 Teddy Swims - The Door

34 37 608,000 Bl3ss & CamrinWatsin featuring Bbyclose - Kisses

35 41 607,000 Chappell Roan - Hot To Go

36 34 607,000 Taylor Swift - I Can Do It With A Broken Heart

37 33 606,000 Dua Lipa - Houdini (770k)

38 35 606,000 Zach Bryan featuring Kacy Musgraves - I Remember Everything (800k)

39 38 601,000 Fleetwood Mac - Everywhere (3.55m)

40 36 600,000 Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire (1.38m)

 

52 532,000 Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile

61 498,000 Gigi Perez - Sailor Song

66 483,000 Chase & Status and Stormzy - Backbone

72 466,000 Billie Eilish - Wildflower

75 461,000 Charli XCX & Billie Eilish - Guess

 

91 430,000 Adam Porte and Stryv featuring Malachiii - Move

96 422,000 Gracie Abrams - I Love You, I’m Sorry

97 421,000 Sonny Fodera, Jazzy & D.O.D. - Somedays

100 415,000 Jordan Adetunji - Kehlani

 

Dropping out:

Mitski - My Love Mine All Mine ( :( we knew this was coming but it held out impressively long)

A-Ha - Take On Me

Van Morrison - Brown Eyed Girl

Noooo Mitski

It’s actually doing quite well again on Spotify atm but nowhere near enough to get back in

 

I’m also now more confident Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree is going to make it based on strong Spotify numbers this week.

Edited December 11, 2024Dec 11 by Maestro

Where is Dancing in the Dark? Had a big re-entry on the audio streaming charts in Halloween week then fell straight back out so no clue how it's doing.

 

Also is the audio streaming chart a better indicator of a song's performance than the overall streaming chart?

Where is Dancing in the Dark? Had a big re-entry on the audio streaming charts in Halloween week then fell straight back out so no clue how it's doing.

 

Also is the audio streaming chart a better indicator of a song's performance than the overall streaming chart?

DITD #85 - doing a solid 8k or so per week.

 

Yes the audio streaming chart is close to the chart without ACR as all video streams are credited at the free ratio so rarely make much more impact than iTunes. Note it does weight free and paid for streams equallly but you get used to which songs have poor ratios and will therefore be higher on audio streaming than officially.

 

Unfortunately the overall streaming chart is virtually useless as it also weights all free and paid for streams equally and that means something doing well on YouTube will likely be far higher than it will be in the real chart. I remember being shocked when “Gooba” by 6ix9ine entered at #1 on the overall streaming chart, but thankfully only #6 officially, just because it had very high YouTube views.

Would predict no new entries next week - I suspect Wham! will be about 20k short.

 

I also predict that Mariah will miss the top 40 this year barring crazy sales in the last week, I think the top 40 cutoff to be around her sales tally from last year (where she was #29), but she's well down year-on-year.

 

Finally in addition to Cruel Summer being #11 for the second year in a row, Mr. Brightside is going to be #22 again like last year, Taste will catch it but it should finish ahead of Wham! and End of Beginning. Its projected sales for this year (~770,0000 would have put it at #15 last year).

I know Wham entered the YTD on the penultimate week of the year last year but has it done the same before?

Even though Christmas songs are down I think they’ll be up quite a lot on the two biggest days

Ageee Mariah will likely miss the Top 40, but I think “Last Christmas” and “Iris” will replace “Houdini” and “Vampire”.

Week 50:

 

1 1 1,947,000 Noah Kahan - Stick Season (2.48m)

2 2 1,740,000 Benson Boone - Beautiful Things

3 3 1,706,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso

4 4 1,682,000 Teddy Swims - Lose Control (1.79m)

5 5 1,426,000 Hozier - Too Sweet

6 6 1,297,000 Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy)

7 7 1,169,000 Billie Eilish - Birds Of A Feather

8 8 1,154,000 Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe

9 9 1,119,000 Dasha - Austin

10 10 1,109,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Please Please Please

 

11 11 1,021,000 Taylor Swift - Cruel Summer (2.21m)

12 12 976,000 Myles Smith - Stargazing

13 13 948,000 Beyoncé - Texas Hold ‘Em

14 14 947,000 Cassö with Raye & D Block Europe - Prada (1.55m)

15 15 882,000 Post Malone featuring Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help

16 16 841,000 Sophie Ellis-Bextor - Murder On The Dancefloor (1.84m)

17 17 827,000 Artemas - I Like The Way You Kiss Me

18 18 793,000 Taylor Swift featuring Post Malone - Fortnight

19 19 792,000 Tate McRae - Greedy (1.25m)

20 20 789,000 Michael Marcagi - Scared To Start

 

21 21 753,000 Djo - End Of Beginning

22 22 750,000 The Killlers - Mr Brightside (6.04m)

23 25 742,000 Sabrina Carpenter - Taste

24 23 735,000 Ariana Grande - We Can’t Be Friends (Wait For Your Love)

25 24 727,000 Natasha Bedingfield - Unwritten (1.91m)

26 26 721,000 Eminem - Houdini

27 27 719,000 Mark Ambor - Belong Together

28 28 700,000 Jack Harlow - Lovin On Me (1.02m)

29 29 664,000 Tommy Richman - Million Dollar Baby

30 30 661,000 Benson Boone - Slow It Down

 

31 31 643,000 Ella Henderson featuring Rudimental - Alibi

32 33 629,000 Teddy Swims - The Door

33 32 625,000 Vance Joy - Riptide (4.21m)

34 35 624,000 Chappell Roan - Hot To Go

35 34 624,000 Bl3ss & CamrinWatsin featuring Bbyclose - Kisses

36 36 616,000 Taylor Swift - I Can Do It

With A Broken Heart

37 38 615,000 Zach Bryan featuring Kacy Musgraves - I Remember Everything (800k)

38 37 613,000 Dua Lipa - Houdini (770k)

39 39 611,000 Fleetwood Mac - Everywhere (3.56m)

40 40 607,000 Olivia Rodrigo - Vampire (1.39m)

 

49 563,000 Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile

54 532,000 Gigi Perez - Sailor Song

63 496,000 Chase & Status and Stormzy - Backbone

70 482,000 Billie Eilish - Wildflower

72 473,000 Charli XCX & Billie Eilish - Guess

 

86 444,000 Adam Porte and Stryv featuring Malachiii - Move

89 442,000 Gracie Abrams - I Love You, I’m Sorry

93 438,000 Sonny Fodera, Jazzy & D.O.D. - Somedays

98 424,000 Jordan Adetunji - Kehlani

99 423,000 Charli XCX - 360

 

“Don’t Look Back In Anger” has left

That’s a few thousand higher than I thought 360 was. Maybe it can make it after all.

Wham! next week for sure, I think Mariah might not make it until the last week tbh.

Also I’m amazed that I Remember Everything hasn’t been able to repass I Can Do It with a Broken Heart.