June 14, 20241 yr Author I don't disagree but the labour manifesto is quite similar on the sick and disabled Labour seem to be taking a more carrot than stick approach though - Reform are talking about stopping benefits after people inevitably get reassessed under them as fit to work.
June 14, 20241 yr Author The rumours of the Tories running out of money actually might be true: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyrr1zk1e8no
June 14, 20241 yr “ NEW: Nigel Farage says Reform UK will scrap the two-child benefit cap When told that it will increase the benefits bill, he says it's important to "support families" “ Reform now to the left of Labour I can understand why both Labour and the Tories are in favour of keeping the Catholic Tax, for different ideological reason for each.i can also see why Reform are in favour of scrapping it, from their own ideological perspective.
June 14, 20241 yr The rumours of the Tories running out of money actually might be true: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyrr1zk1e8no The tories received 10% this time around of what they did in the first week of the 2019 election. :o That’s an awful stat for them.
June 15, 20241 yr Btw, are there any current seat predictions for the parties? I haven’t seen any in a while. 🚨 NEW: The latest MRP puts Labour on course for 262 seat majority 🔴 LAB: 456 🔵 CON: 72 🟠 LD: 56 🟡 SNP: 37 🟣 RFM: 7 🟢 GRN: 1 Survation Think that would be hopeful in terms of reform seats but I'm sure they can use that projection to gain votes
June 15, 20241 yr Lib Dems have same % to be the official oposition as Trump had to win vs Hills!!! (25%)
June 15, 20241 yr Yeh if the liberals are on 56 which is less than pre 2015 and snp on 37 Labour must be beating the tories in ALOT of English seats!
June 15, 20241 yr Yeh if the liberals are on 56 which is less than pre 2015 and snp on 37 Labour must be beating the tories in ALOT of English seats! Forgot to include the link https://www.survation.com/mrp-update-first-...farages-return/ Think it seems pretty comprehensive and credible
June 15, 20241 yr Just had a thought that this will be the first Labour general election win in Buzzjack’s existence, which is pretty crazy at it feels like Buzzjack has existed for ages. It is quite a seismic moment, even if not one I’m enthusiastic about myself.
June 16, 20241 yr 🚨 NEW: The latest MRP puts Labour on course for 262 seat majority 🔴 LAB: 456 🔵 CON: 72 🟠 LD: 56 🟡 SNP: 37 🟣 RFM: 7 🟢 GRN: 1 Survation Think that would be hopeful in terms of reform seats but I'm sure they can use that projection to gain votes Thank you, much appreciated! :heart: Great showing for Labour! Nothing is deterring them so far it seems. Hopefully a smear campaign doesn't happen in the next few weeks...
June 16, 20241 yr Britain Is Broken Britain Needs Reform The most bizarre party political broadcast I've seen. I thought there was something wrong with the telly.
June 16, 20241 yr . Hopefully a smear campaign doesn't happen in the next few weeks... You could argue with how how’s the papers are that there’s been a Labour smear campaign going for the last 14 years :D But agreed hopefully something doesn’t derail them Edited June 16, 20241 yr by ElectroBoy
June 16, 20241 yr You could argue with how how’s the papers are that there’s been a Labour sneer campaign going for the last 14 years :D But agreed hopefully something doesn’t derail them Yep with you there. :D More the reason to expect it lol.
June 16, 20241 yr What happens when the media decide to smear them again. I mean why do people listen to them?
June 16, 20241 yr They won't smear them now, they're not a threat to the forces of capital and they will be the next government. The smears will come out a couple of years into the term when the press suddenly start noticing immoralities that the Labour right are getting away with right now. Lot of conversation about Corbyn saying he'd beat the Tories in their current form - which he would have a chance of doing, but he would certainly be having to contend with the journalists; who right now are having a jolly good laugh/making up shit about Islington North barren of Corbyn campaigners, they would be going rabid with smear stories if the Labour manifesto was anywhere left of Thatcher. It feels passé to bring it up but it does affect every part of our national discourse - it's sickening how much power the commentariat class has over our national conversation to influence views. It's why the bloody private school thing has been taking up so many airwaves relative to the number of people it affects, most journalists went to or have children at private schools, nothing to do with "aspiration" or whatever they're framing it as.
June 16, 20241 yr They won't smear them now, they're not a threat to the forces of capital and they will be the next government. The smears will come out a couple of years into the term when the press suddenly start noticing immoralities that the Labour right are getting away with right now. Lot of conversation about Corbyn saying he'd beat the Tories in their current form - which he would have a chance of doing, but he would certainly be having to contend with the journalists; who right now are having a jolly good laugh/making up shit about Islington North barren of Corbyn campaigners, they would be going rabid with smear stories if the Labour manifesto was anywhere left of Thatcher. It feels passé to bring it up but it does affect every part of our national discourse - it's sickening how much power the commentariat class has over our national conversation to influence views. It's why the bloody private school thing has been taking up so many airwaves relative to the number of people it affects, most journalists went to or have children at private schools, nothing to do with "aspiration" or whatever they're framing it as. And this is why Corbyn never got in to power! There's no way a Labour government under Corbyn would be winning this election against the Tories imo. Even though I've made it clear I'm not a fan of him, his polling data currently is about level that of the current Tories and there's no way he had the political nous and guile to navigate some of the foreign policy parts too. It's all moot imo as I am very unsure whether he would have been able to navigate NATO/Ukraine/Gaza in the way that cuts through to the public. I do agree on the latter points though.
June 17, 20241 yr And this is why Corbyn never got in to power! There's no way a Labour government under Corbyn would be winning this election against the Tories imo. Even though I've made it clear I'm not a fan of him, his polling data currently is about level that of the current Tories and there's no way he had the political nous and guile to navigate some of the foreign policy parts too. It's all moot imo as I am very unsure whether he would have been able to navigate NATO/Ukraine/Gaza in the way that cuts through to the public. I do agree on the latter points though. Uh, I'll grant that the foreign policy minefields would trip him up and we wouldn't be in this political situation had Corbyn kept leading the Labour party (no way the media would have allowed partygate/Truss etc. with someone they didn't like on the other team), so as we are with the years of history we have with him as part of the Labour movement, certainly difficult for him to come back - though if Farage can come back... But I reckon that he's correct in that had this been his point to come to national relevance without preconceived voter opinions of him, or if a leader somewhat like him with less propensity to fall into media traps (McDonnell?) were leading Labour with something akin to the 2017 Labour manifesto then they would absolutely clean up and install a proper left-leaning government this election. Even with Corbyn at his worst leading Labour you get the sense that enough people are just so completely done with the Tories that they'd get him in for a change of pace, someone has to win in many of these constituencies and in many where the Tories won in 2019, they're not winning those again by a long shot. At worst I think Corbyn would limp over the line to form a possibly minority/slim majority government with Lib Dems/Reform benefiting far more than otherwise (my evidence for this is that his current approval ratings are just barely better than Truss & Sunak so an election where they were the two main factors it'd be a 2017 issue where it really just depends on the votes in each constituency stacking up right). Only reason I consider this even worth talking about is that there's considerable evidence that the voting population under 40 is disproportionately left-leaning (granted, with many of those economically left and prone to populism) in comparison to past British cohorts and certainly to the left of Starmer. Because of this, Labour's polling lead feels very soft and the incoming Labour government is faced with a choice between two groups - the likely lefty majority of voters that will be even more dominant in 2029, or the tiny in number but outsized in influence from the right-leaning media, and I reckon it'll be the incongruity of those that end up pulling Labour apart over the next 5 years, leaving space for the populist right to sweep in. Interestingly, there's a betting market for whether Labour will get less total votes than they did in 2017 (currently 5/4 on Ladbrokes - if you consider politics odds an indicator of anything more than what politics nerds are wasting their money on), something I'm sure many professional arguers online are going to be watching for.
June 17, 20241 yr ^^ Totally agree the Labour support is very soft given some polls put them under 40% now even with the tories still doing terribly!
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