Supercell

I think given the double album and if this is being released physically too then perhaps 300k is not out the question this week and I still think she’ll get the no1 single and it might be physicals get it there (if streaming doesn’t). The US I honestly think 3 million is quite likely now, she’s going to be gunning for that record I’d have thought given the insane pre-orders.

I thought in the US it was 16 tracks for the album tracks and had been from the start? I’m probably wrong though, I do agree though there’s no need for it really. Surprised at the double album but I thought she’d throw some new variant out midweek like she did with midnights to maximise the impact so this will certainly give this a huge boost. It’ll be interesting to see the streaming numbers tomorrow and how many get over the million mark as I suspect there will be a few and also how it holds up. I think she’s missed a trick though doing the double album now, she could have waited a couple of days and then given the whole album a boost but alas it’ll still be massive one way or another.

I can’t remember what I voted for now but I think it’ll best Midnights first week sales. Her US figures will be insane id already thought she’d clear 2 million there in the first week but if it’s there with the preorders then she might challenge Adele’s record.

I would think if any album of her career is going to set a watermark on streaming in its first day it should be this one given it’s coming off the back of her most successful era since 1989 and the re-release of said album, plus the tour. How it holds up the rest of the week it’s hard to say, but I wouldn’t be surprised if 2-3 songs are around or above the million mark. I think 1.5 mil for the lead track but could easily be a little higher.

Also just seen slow it down is top 40. I really hope this gains steam going forward it’s such a catchy follow up.

Amazing for Hozier, I’ve only just properly heard it but I can see why it’s taken off. Love that we keep getting a new song taking off every 2-3 weeks, I feel like Q1/2 of 2019 was the last time we had anything this active in that regard. It’ll be interesting to see where Too Sweet peaks as I’m not personally convinced he’s going to stop Taylor being no1 at this stage.

Wow at scared to start finally taking off, it’s been hovering at the lower end of the top 40 for a while now so glad to see it’s finally breaking out at last. Fingers crossed it can chart in the top 10 next week.

I opted for No1 and over 200k. Personally I’m not surprised she’s releasing the 11th album this year as many have said, she’s pretty much chucked one out every 2 years roughly, more the timing I was surprised at as I thought she’d have picked Q4. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if she challenges 30 or beats it for first week sales. So 250/300k with a massive second week drop wouldn’t surprise me, depends on how exhausted everyone is by then and of course how the album is received. I can see why people are making the overexposed comments and I sort of agree, it’s more saturation at this point. Even though the TVs are fundamentally not new albums the promotion/hype around them (especially 1989) it does feel a bit like we’ve just had an era of sorts, so I can see why people are a bit worn out. Personally I’m intrigued to see how it sounds, I feel like it might be in the same vibe as midnights.

Nice to see Nothing Matters climbing, it’s growing on me I have to say. Also refreshing to see a new indie band breaking through.

Chuffed Homesick is still top 5. Hope the album can keep hold of No2 ahead of the Weeknd, if he has a well timed physical release of the album with all the single remixes added (if he hasn’t already) then he could grab the No1 for a week down the line.

Yeah I meant more it getting a second wind so to speak as it’s been climbing up gradually for a few weeks now. I doubt it would get a new peak unless they reset it (which I doubt it).

Love seeing Noah’s tracks rising up the chart still, I hope Dial Drunk can eventually take off it’s my favourite off the album. Crazy to see two 00s hits in the top 10, makes you wonder what other gem from the 00s will have a second wind next.

Noah looks like he could take the No2 spot on the albums potentially, especially if the new version of homesick is being included with the Stick Season album.

Ah thank you, I wasn’t sure. I totally forgot about heatwaves. Maybe it is unprecedented then. I would argue Stick Season is quite refreshing chart wise and agree with it being Mumford and sons throwback with its folk-pop. Which to be fair they were huge early in the career with the same sound.

That’s amazing start for Noah, I hope Homesick holds up it’s so good! I’d like to see him grab a few more top 40 hits off this album as it’s the most solid album I’ve listened to in ages. Has any song increased in streaming this many weeks in a row? The only one in my mind is either blinding lights or someone you loved as they were both slow burners. He could end up near Mileys levels from last January the way he’s going.

I so hope Stick Season gets that No1 on the OCC chart, I did wonder how it would hold up post the festive period given the line about Christmas in the chorus but looks as though it will (assuming there's no big releases on Friday).

Chuffed to see Stick Season at No2, such a great song for this time of year. Might be its last chance peak going forward although I think it would make a great Xmas no1 personally. Surprised at TT sales, be interesting to see how that holds up next week

I actually wouldn’t rule out Taylor dropping her 11th album next year, she’s often been like clockwork with a new one roughly every two years. I feel like next year might see a few big names return after a long absence, there’s quite a few that are rumoured to be recording. Given we seem to be in an era of comebacks I think there will be a couple of surprise success stories next year. I’m going to stick my neck out and say Rihanna might finally return and potentially be huge.

So glad this era is over although I think the Christmas No1 died with X factor and hasn’t recovered since. As many of said it just means the same old Christmas songs will now be no1 every December for the rest of time unless they come up with a sensible chart rule to stop that happening.

I really hope Style can hold up and finally get a top 10 placing that it should have had the first time round, its one of her finest songs imho. It really does raise the question if this three track rule is actually helping or hindering things, as surely official singles should be excluded from a 3 chart rule, especially if they are likely to re-peak. I get for albums tracks but it just seems such a stupid rule most of the time (as well as many others).

Whilst it was a massive hit in its own right I do think a lot of big hits in 2016-17 benefited from the fact that free streams were counted in the same way as premium (which honestly I don’t even know why it ever was or still is at a lower rate but hey ho). So it’s going to make it hard to compete with it for a long while. The streaming sales ratio is a joke and is way to inflated for sales but that’s another matter.

I went for 80-90k but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s around the 100k tbh, she’s so huge at the moment and gained new fans so I can see there being a lot of casual interest. Additionally I’d like to bet enchanted is pushed as single which wouldn’t take much to be top three, that or cruel summer will jump up next week.

Those streaming numbers for No1 seem very low on Spotify. When was the last time they were below 300k? Probably wasn’t as long ago as I’m thinking but I can’t remember the last time I saw them that low.

I think Taylor, Adele and Harry are the only acts that can manage 100k first week sales now, but I doubt Adele and Harry will be releasing anything new this year. Speak Now I can see just clearing the 100k mark, it wasn’t really that well known the first time round so re-releasing it off the back of midnights it’ll have much bigger sales I’d have thought than Red. But In future it looks very much in doubt that this can keep happening unless the chart rules are changed for the streaming ratios.

Great thread! Amazing to see Chromatica nearly at 200k might catch up with Artpop in the next year or so at this rate. The Fame still doing really too. I suspect born this way will get a decent boost the next few months with Bloody Mary taking off.