Harve

But to expand on this slightly (as I think Jonjo was perhaps indirectly asking about that), you can certainly create a narrative that says moderates running in swing states is essential but I really don't think the progressive performance is that bad. I just think that economic matters ending up trumping identity or flavour of Democrat, largely. Minnesota had a progressive running for senate. She won by 10%, and the average dem victory for the 5 statewide races was 11% (including the moderate electoral juggernaut who ran for gov, Amy Klobuchar). Michigan had a progressive running for senate who won by 7%, and the average dem victory for the 4 statewide races was 9%. Florida had a progressive running for senate who lost by 3%, and the average dem loss for the 5 statewide races was 2%. Maine had a progressive running for senate and there is a clear case of underperformance but the circumstances were very odd with the Platner scandal, and there was only one other statewide race (governor) and the latter WASN'T against a known incumbent and overperformer (Collins) which I think is the main factor here. Compared to Texas, Kansas, Iowa etc. these states weren't amazingly impressive for democrats up and down the ballot all things considered, but I don't think that can be put down to the partisan lean of one of many candidates. So a very slight underperformance but not clear enough to really deter an El Sayed-style campaign rhetorically or to consign progressive policies to history. That will matter for whether AOC runs in the primary.

The blue wave is so overwhelming that any discussion of the virtues of progressive vs. moderate D seems slightly buried for now, which I think is a relief. Also Blississippi is unbelievable. This is the US equivalent of South West Norfolk voting Labour (over Liz Truss).

If you don't believe the polls (fair) then just look at where the parties are choosing to campaign - Trump is spending the evening before election in Lousiana which is the 12th most Republican state (this may be in part be because his presence actually doesn't help in the deciding states where all the money is). Polls may well be wrong but it's not as if Republicans are seeing anything different here.

edit: nvm my image posted successfully now

Thanks for the great overview. It doesn't feel right to know all this to such a level of detail but I guess that's why we have the below meme. I could make some more laudable explanation for what makes it compelling by talking about what it means for the world, but I think what makes US elections particularly compelling to follow from an election nerd POV is that there are lots of American nerds that are easy to find on Twitter, obviously no language barrier, and just a mess of different races and positions (Texas has a 'railroad commissioner' for some reason? You elect judges in many US states???) that are fun to get into the weeds with, with different ways of voting and counting, but all of them have the convenient commonality of eventually coming down to an easy-to-follow two horse race that's really as close as you can get in politics to everyone gets a puppy vs. diarrhoea forever which just isn't as straightforward to draw conclusions from in most other democracies. Anyway the early vote (in the states where it actually means something*) is looking quite encouraging. There are lots of formerly reliable Republican voters - especially younger white voters and in rural areas - who just aren't turning up yet and are running out of time to do so. We won't really have much of an idea about who's been persuaded to switch their vote until next week, but in some places you can look at what demographics are disproportionately voting so far and which aren't. *There are some states, like Ohio, where only a minority vote before election day and/or there is no formal Republican/Democrat registration so making a guess at what the final electorate will look like is more of a stab in the dark than it is in Nevada where you have formal registration, or in Georgia where voting is extremely racially polarised so simply getting the ethnic breakdown already gives you some idea.

I had to listen to the winner again as honestly it passed me by! That and the two in the top 5 that I actually voted for (Terra + Nelio) I all predicted to come worse than 30th so yes Pav's random.org definitely beat mine which I completely whiffed! My own entry also whiffed. I wasn't expecting anything spectacular but was hoping for around mid table and perhaps points coming from a wider pool of voters. Still I'll count myself lucky for actually qualifying after the same artist had a very undeserved DNQ many years ago, and I'm grateful for the gold + two silvers. That makes for a change from a long run of exceeded expectations so all good! Thanks for the hosting this month!

This is an ominous one-word post to make when you are checking the scoreboard x Congrats (I hope) Freeze!

Altho there I did put Sovarasma kinda high which hasn't been matched but I would so love them to be a dark horse.

I find that half the battle of making odds and predictions is trying to not let your own taste bias everything too much, but perhaps I've overcooked it - it's good to see that many of the tracks that I've rated low-ish but are rated higher by others I'm a big fan of! (also I may just not have a clue)

I want to see who made a 6 day boat journey here (not possible to land a plane on this island) only to give it 1 star Google review.

Idk maybe something like this??? 1 Pestolia | Perfume Genius ‘Natural High (50th anniversary entry)’ 2 FARC | Indra ‘Jokes On Me’ 3 Bøtanikkä | Temples ‘Vendetta’ 4 Danæviia | The Algorithm ‘Graceful Degradation’ 5 Flynnonda | Ellie Goulding ‘Animal (100th anniversary entry)’ 6 Bronzil | The Drums & Mareux ‘It Didn’t Matter’ 7 Ennea | Kalandra ‘Let Me Be Open’ 8 East Rukahavian | Sarah Kinsley ‘Truth Of Pursuit’ 9 Herbilore | Levante ‘SONO BLU’ 10 Lookylion | Frankie Rose ‘Manifest’ 11 Sovarasma | Wednesday ‘Fine’ 12 Ajanaeda | FKA twigs ‘Lights On (50th anniversary entry)’ 13 Altyr Muunilinst | LEXXE ‘The Box’ 14 Cor Lupus | Earth Tongue ‘Dimly Lit Cadaver’ 15 Daehun | KiiiKiii ‘Pop Off Pop Off’ 16 Deandria | Thoom ‘I’m Going Back To Lebanon’ 17 POPHub | Cockhouse & NATHALIA ‘Doink’ 18 Thelonia | My First Time ‘Every Version Of You’ 19 Freidland | Sofia Camara ‘Hallucinating’ 20 Scotland 2 | 300SkullsAndCounting & Jenny Sparks ‘The Ballad Of St Nick’s Park’ 21 The Spodic Empire | Squarepusher ‘Welcome To Europe’ 22 Land of DW | Jippu ‘GAY’ 23 N DNTN | IVE ‘BANG BANG’ 24 Elëdan | Photay ‘Bombogenesis’ 25 Taahino | Anyma & Adam Sellouk ‘Girls MIA (feat. Carly Gibert)’ 26 Skall | O’Flynn ‘Kelsier’ 27 Ojnoj | Tara Macri ‘Grace’ 28 Séyetana | Junior Mesa ‘the cops are coming’ 29 New Helvetica | Grouper ‘Alien Observer’ 30 FSR Rontvia | Modern English ‘I Melt With You’ 31 Terra Avium | Adult DVD ‘Rolling Face’ 32 Neliönoir | Antony Szmierek ‘Flight Simulator (feat. Imogen and the Knife)’ 33 Pagasa | Bleary Eyed ‘Heaven Year’ 34 Greenfroze | SKYND ‘Johnny Kitagawa’ 35 Lotunia | ENHYPEN ‘Brought The Heat Back’ 36 Persephonia | manifest ‘Snap’ 37 Jupiterdonia | Arlissa ‘Memory Of You’ 38 Yehesi | UNIS ‘Sky Land, Star Land’ 39 Dobago | Augalas ‘All You Do Is Talk About Me’ 40 Mothertopia | MISSU ‘OUTTASIGHT’ 41 Juranabaijan | Elliot Minor ‘Parallel Worlds’

The UK is part of an increasingly small number of countries that still directly charge a licence fee - just the ones in yellow here. You can't exactly compare them as not all public broadcasters have the same scope. France abolished the licence fee a few years ago, although French public television I believe has a greater proportion of its income coming from commercial sources than the BBC and it's not been smooth sailing since then. Today (and for a long time actually), you can benefit from having a national public broadcaster without actually owning a TV and there needs to be something done about that as the proportion that actually pays a licence fee shrinks. But not sure if this is the way.

Also I have voted in what must be record time for me and feel like I deserve bonus points or some kind of other prize for that tbh xx Two tracks that were in my SF2 commiserations made it into my final votes! One because it truly grew on me and the other because there wasn't too much that made it in from SF1 (although don't get me wrong there was good stuff there) + you of course have 5 more tracks to vote for. I'll also spoil that I voted for one of the K-Pop songs which is almost as unusual as the speed at which I've voted x

That Juranabaijan entry is such a throwback that I didn't even recognise it by name. Last fm says that I last listened to it in August 2009 and I've probably not thought about Elliot Minor since then - the kind of thing that makes me feel really, really old.

Rough landing for Rob eek.

Yikes did not see that at all!

All safe top 10

I can see that, I meant I was wrong to predict them as a Q mb

Looks right - I predicted A-konohagakure to DNQ and they'll be pleased to see that I was wrong!

I did also vote for one (although only one) of my SF2 dnq predicts so hoping that they are defied but only slightly ofc

My SF2 predicts are all correct so far! Hopefully this continues to be the case, particularly as I predicted myself qualifying but was wavering as I was slightly worried about it getting crowded out eek

Didn't finish the first series but I had the intention of watching both!

The Pestolia entry rly reminds me that I need to finish Twin Peaks oops.

Honestly my entry is the closest thing in SF2 to AI tropical house so send votes my way if that helps keep the holiday pool vibes going x One of the few times where I probably have one of the more vanilla entries (but I do love it!) Altho I DNQ'd with O'Flynn in 2016 when AI wasn't in common parlance yet so I promise that he's real.

One of your many, many referendums will be about aligning with EU regulations on Roam Like At Home which for some reason currently apply to Liechtenstein, Norway and even Moldova but not Switzerland. (the German speakers will vote no)