One of the most fun parts of this board is the prediction threads where we are trying to guess where one or another song is going to chart.

 

So far we have had 26 (plus I excluded couple of threads due to bad polls, lack of posters etc.) finished polls this year, I did an observation how accurate are we in them.

 

Some statistics for a start:

 

16 of 26 songs are overestimated, 8 are underestimated and only 2 are got correct.

 

The only correct estimations this year so far are:

- Owl City - Fireflies (68% correct)

- Sugababes - Wear My Kiss (40% correct, 39% underestimated though, the gap was only one vote)

 

The most overestimated songs are:

- Erik Hassle - Hurtful (88% overestimated)

- Amy MacDonald - Don't Tell Me (87% overestimated)

- Craig David - One More Lie (81% overestimated)

- Sade - Soldier of Love (81% overestimated)

- Sabrina Washington - OMG (74% overestimated)

 

The most underestimated songs are:

- Rihanna - Rude Boy (79% underestimated)

- Ellie Goulding - Starry Eyed (73% underestimated)

- Paramore - The Only Exception (69% underestimated)

 

And here is the whole table:

http://img693.imageshack.us/img693/4782/predictions170410.jpg

 

Of course, the results aren't 100% accurate due to several reasons (one of them is that the polls are not unified), but for me it was pretty interesting information. Hopefully so is for you.

Edited April 17, 201015 yr by Arrs

The Only Exception probably hasn't peaked yet, so this might need updating... possibly not though.

 

Also, technically One More Lie and Remember December aren't N/C as they peaked at #76 and #80 respectively but I'm presuming you're using top 75 only - although I recall there being a top 100 option for Craig David, was that the option considered correct?

 

Very interesting that only 2 polls were guessed correctly.

 

Wasn't there also a poll for BedRock or am I imagining that one?

Edited April 17, 201015 yr by Braysayer

I did only a Top75, yes. Firstly I wanted to count even top200 (e.g. Sade) but then I feared about the accuracy or the non-top-75 positions.

 

As for 'Bedrock', the poll was appeared too late when the song was already in the top20, and it contained only options up to that region, it wasn't accurate to compare this poll to the others at all.

Also, technically One More Lie and Remember December aren't N/C as they peaked at #76 and #80 respectively but I'm presuming you're using top 75 only - although I recall there being a top 100 option for Craig David, was that the option considered correct?

Actually it doesn't really matter if they had a chart position lower then the top 75 because in the majority (or all) of the polls the worst you can vote for is "top 75" and "flop".

 

BTW thanks Arrs for the statistics, I found it really interesting

I did only a Top75, yes. Firstly I wanted to count even top200 (e.g. Sade) but then I feared about the accuracy or the non-top-75 positions.

 

As for 'Bedrock', the poll was appeared too late when the song was already in the top20, and it contained only options up to that region, it wasn't accurate to compare this poll to the others at all.

 

Hmm, okay.

 

I can confirm with 100% accuracy of the following positions:

 

One More Lie #76

Remember December #80

OMG #120

Soldier Of Love #123 (unless it mysteriously climbed after its début which seems unlikely)

 

And I'm pretty sure that Scooter song didn't chart.

There was a number for GA floating around but I forgot it.

Actually it doesn't really matter if they had a chart position lower then the top 75 because in the majority (or all) of the polls the worst you can vote for is "top 75" and "flop".

 

BTW thanks Arrs for the statistics, I found it really interesting

 

Craig David definitely had a top 100 option, because I remember voting that (correctly as it happened)

Craig David definitely had a top 100 option, because I remember voting that (correctly as it happened)

Hm... that's why I said in the majority. TBH I couldn't remember on Craig David because I haven't voted for that. But I would say we can call those singles that haven't reached the top 75 a flop.

Some of the polls didn't include a 'flop' option. The lowest you could put Sade was Top100, so I put all the votes in the top75 into the 'overestimated' option and the only :kink: vote for the 'top100' as a flop, hence I counted all non-top-75s as a n/c.

 

Same with Craig David, he had something like (...) Top75, Top100, Top200 but not a 'flop option'. And then again, I combined top100 with the top200 and made from them a 'flop' point.

 

The problem of the polls is that they aren't unified. You can notice that N-Dubz 'Playing With Fire' count as a top15 for #14 because of the poll when in the most polls a 'Top-15' option doesn't exist.

 

That's why I wrote that this table isn't completely accurate because of 'non-unified' reason.

You must have a lot of time your hands, right?

Robot, I'm ill and at home for the whole day, so yes. :lol: It didn't take much time though, about half an hour...

 

Maybe for the future we should make all polls unified? Like

#1

Top3

Top5

Top10

Top20

Top40

Top75

Flop

Edited April 17, 201015 yr by Arrs

Robot, I'm ill and at home for the whole day, so yes. :lol: It didn't take much time though, about half an hour...

 

Maybe for the future we should make all polls unified? Like

#1

Top3

Top5

Top10

Top20

Top40

Top75

Flop

 

I really don't think 76-100 should be considered flop territory, especially now the OCC publish the top 100s on Sunday.

 

I think it should be:

 

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

6-10

11-15

16-20

21-30

31-40

41-75

76-100

101+ (flop)

Bray, I think that's too many answers, and on another note, the starter of the thread decides, what he will put up as poll answers, it's quite difficult to edit all, and tbh I don't think the chart mods want to do that :heehee:

 

PS: people don't even bother to read the rules let alone create unified prediction threads

 

I really don't think 76-100 should be considered flop territory, especially now the OCC publish the top 100s on Sunday.

A song outside the top 40 is already a flop actually. :kink:

Robot, I'm ill and at home for the whole day, so yes. :lol: It didn't take much time though, about half an hour...

 

Maybe for the future we should make all polls unified? Like

#1

Top3

Top5

Top10

Top20

Top40

Top75

Flop

I'm doing one now for B.o.B, I'll start off this unification then, I always do my polls like this