April 7, 201015 yr Unfortunately I am also a little bitter cynic. I do find it all too easy to believe government officials applying just a little pressure to the bodies they fund.
April 7, 201015 yr That Telegraph article proves nothing. It may well be that the BCS survey is flawed by not having a representative enough sample. But that means it will have ALWAYS been that way, and therefore, examining TRENDS is still a worthwhile exercise (unless we think crime for 16-24-year-olds has been rising in recent years against a steady fall for crime in other age groups - which wouldn't really make sense). And the trends show that the figures have been steadily falling over the past 13 years. So, it may well be that the BCS are significantly underestimating crime levels, but what we can say for sure is that they're significantly lower than when Major left office.
April 10, 201015 yr My thoughts exactly :lol:, there are only three towns though - Haslemere, Godalming and Farnham [with its numerous villages]. At least we got rid of that AWFUL Virginia Bottomley woman :puke: This is what he said in his maiden speech "My constituency consists of three historic towns and a number of villages that lie between them. Farnham is the largest of the towns, Haslemere is a town of great charm and character, and Godalming has a special place in my heart as I went to school there and my family are originally from there. My late grandmother was still alive when I was selected as a prospective parliamentary candidate, and no one could be happier than she would have been to see me standing here today." Not much sign there that Farnham is his favourite :lol:
April 10, 201015 yr Author New polls released tonight. ICM/Sunday Telegraph: CON 38% (+1) LAB 30% (-3) LD 21% (-) (The comparatives are the Easter Monday poll). A fairly consistent picture emerging, with the Tories between 7%-8% ahead. That's still hung parliament territory with the Tories needing at least 10% to have any chance of a majority. Edited April 10, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew
April 10, 201015 yr Author ComRes CON 39%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 16%(-4) Lead just 7pts. I think the polls after each election debate will be interesting. Another ICM poll in key marginals only has the Tories around only 7% ahead. Still not an overall majority. Edited April 10, 201015 yr by Victor Meldrew
April 10, 201015 yr ComRes CON 39%(+2), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 16%(-4) Lead just 7pts. I think the polls after each election debate will be interesting. Another ICM poll in key marginals only has the Tories around only 7% ahead. Still not an overall majority. This poll is almost certainly a rogue with the Lib Dem vote too low. Not only is it out of kilter with other polls, it also contrasts with a poll in the Lab / Con marginals which gives them 19%. It seems highly unlikely that the Lib Dems would be performing better in the Lab / Con marginals than in the country as a whole.
April 10, 201015 yr Author This poll is almost certainly a rogue with the Lib Dem vote too low. Not only is it out of kilter with other polls, it also contrasts with a poll in the Lab / Con marginals which gives them 19%. It seems highly unlikely that the Lib Dems would be performing better in the Lab / Con marginals than in the country as a whole. I agree. People on DS also saying it appears to be a rogue poll. What's your prediction Suedey? Mine's now a Tory overall majority of around 40 seats!! I'll stock up on cider and stay up all night or at least until we have an idea of the result. :D
April 10, 201015 yr I agree. People on DS also saying it appears to be a rogue poll. What's your prediction Suedey? Mine's now a Tory overall majority of around 40 seats!! I'll stock up on cider and stay up all night or at least until we have an idea of the result. :D I'm still sticking with the view I've held since the last election. There will be a hung parliament. I made a prediction of the last election result on the Monday before polling day. It was significantly different from what the opinion polls said but I was pretty close to the actual result. I said the Tories would win just under 200 seats (they got 197) and the Lib Dems would win 60 (they got 62). I didn't predict the number of Labour seats but you could work out roughly how many they would get based on my other predictions.
April 10, 201015 yr Author I'm still sticking with the view I've held since the last election. There will be a hung parliament. I made a prediction of the last election result on the Monday before polling day. It was significantly different from what the opinion polls said but I was pretty close to the actual result. I said the Tories would win just under 200 seats (they got 197) and the Lib Dems would win 60 (they got 62). I didn't predict the number of Labour seats but you could work out roughly how many they would get based on my other predictions. Thanks. We shall see.
April 10, 201015 yr According to an Independent poll, 51% want Labour to be involved in the government and 49% want the Tories to be involved in the government. (More specifically: 29% want a Tories outright win, 26% want a Labour-Lib Dem coalition, 25% want a Labour outright and 20% want a Tory-Lib Dem coaltion.) With that said, the same article in the Independent (which, imo, is the only paper which isn't nauseatingly biased right now) says that representatives from all the major polling companies expect the Tories to get a slim overall majority. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/polit...us-1941434.html Edited April 10, 201015 yr by Danny
April 11, 201015 yr i wonder if there are any official statistics from the 1992 election, the one where labour were ahead in all the polls and were expected to win..... only to be trounced yet again. take the lesson, polls are only a GUIDE and might not reflect accurately relfect countrywide opinion. id be very surprised if the tories won a working majority, boy cameron has read the 'how to win an election' guide book and like a swatty schoolboy is following instructions. imho cameron isnt a credible pm, hes a reletively inexperienced schoolboy, i expect brown to still be in office .... the scruffy old slug still has more of a statesman like image then cameron.
April 11, 201015 yr i wonder if there are any official statistics from the 1992 election, the one where labour were ahead in all the polls and were expected to win..... only to be trounced yet again. What do you mean by official statistics? The Times Guide to the House of Commons lists all the opinion polls from the campaign. That list shows that the polls were not as consistent as popular myth suggests. There were a number of polls throughout the campaign which showed a Tory lead. In the week before the campaign all polls showed a Labour lead between 0 and 3% (apart from one which had them 6% ahead) until polling day itself. The two polls on that day had a tie in one and a 0.5% Tory lead in the other. That doesn't of course alter the fact that the actual Tory lead of 7.6% was out of line with all of them.
April 11, 201015 yr What do you mean by official statistics? as in factual statistics porporting to those polls in '92.
April 11, 201015 yr What do you mean by official statistics? The Times Guide to the House of Commons lists all the opinion polls from the campaign. That list shows that the polls were not as consistent as popular myth suggests. There were a number of polls throughout the campaign which showed a Tory lead. In the week before the campaign all polls showed a Labour lead between 0 and 3% (apart from one which had them 6% ahead) until polling day itself. The two polls on that day had a tie in one and a 0.5% Tory lead in the other. That doesn't of course alter the fact that the actual Tory lead of 7.6% was out of line with all of them. The Sun's "Will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights" headline undoubtedly caused a last minute surge too
April 11, 201015 yr as in factual statistics porporting to those polls in '92. I've given some details of the polls. I can give you more if you want it.
April 11, 201015 yr Author The Sun's "Will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights" headline undoubtedly caused a last minute surge too Hopefully a good pro-Tory headline this time too!!
April 11, 201015 yr Chances are that they'll try to repeat it and do exactly the same headline. I hope it backfires. I don't understand quite why the headline was given such importance in factoring the result? It's not like The Sun hadn't been tearing Kinnock/Labour to shreds at every opportunity before then...
April 12, 201015 yr I've given some details of the polls. I can give you more if you want it. i know you did, i was still clarifying your question though.
April 14, 201015 yr Author Latest marginals poll for the Telegraph give Tories a 12 point lead and an overall majority. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...oll-shows.html The poll by Crosby/Textor was carried out in 100 marginal seats; 80 held by Labour and 20 by the Liberal Democrats. 43 per cent of voters questioned said they would vote Conservative, 31 per cent Labour and 20 Lib Dem. Labour have dropped five points since the 2005 election in these seats, while the Tories have gained seven points, the poll showed.
Create an account or sign in to comment