Not too scared, just can't be bothered

 

If I was a victim of crime tomorrow I wouldn't bother reporting it to the police as the only way the offender will be caught is if he is caught doing 40mph in a 30mph zone

 

So how is that different from previous governments? Surely it's the same thing.

By that token you may as well dismiss every single poll ever taken. They make these things representative and take a wide scope of interviewees for this reason...

 

I have never taken polls seriously tbh but it is still true though that the 40,000 can only speak for 40,000 and not 58m on something so serious as crime.

 

Suedehead's claim that crime is falling can't be proven as 57,960,000 people were not consulted

 

I could load up MSN now and ask everyone from BJ on my MSN "is Tyron a c**t ?" and then out of those 12 if 8 said yes you are a c**t would it be fair to say 2/3 of BJ think you are a c**t when only 12 out of 2000 have been asked ?

I have never taken polls seriously tbh but it is still true though that the 40,000 can only speak for 40,000 and not 58m on something so serious as crime.

 

Suedehead's claim that crime is falling can't be proven as 57,960,000 people were not consulted

 

I could load up MSN now and ask everyone from BJ on my MSN "is Tyron a c**t ?" and then out of those 12 if 8 said yes you are a c**t would it be fair to say 2/3 of BJ think you are a c**t when only 12 out of 2000 have been asked ?

 

That could apply to the charts. 100k buy a single so it's the countries most popular song. Then there's another 4 million people who hate the song. Most popular song? ;)

 

This is why it's important that everyone who can vote does vote. If we have a terrible turn out - worse than in 2005 then people can't complain after the elections when Brown/Cameron/Clegg/whoever ( :D ) is in Number 10. Unless you do vote but another party goes into power. <_<

40000 people is 40 times more than most opinion polls. It has to be a lot higher or there would be a lot of crimes where they found no victims at all. Of course, if you want to insist that you know more about statistics than every statistician who ever lived, that's your prerogative. But nobody is saying that this is an accurate measure of the actual level of crime. It is a reasonably accurate measure of the trend. Or are you suggesting that the consistent fall in the number of people saying they have been the victim of crime over the last 15 years is just an extraordinary coincidence?

40000 people is 40 times more than most opinion polls. It has to be a lot higher or there would be a lot of crimes where they found no victims at all. Of course, if you want to insist that you know more about statistics than every statistician who ever lived, that's your prerogative. But nobody is saying that this is an accurate measure of the actual level of crime. It is a reasonably accurate measure of the trend. Or are you suggesting that the consistent fall in the number of people saying they have been the victim of crime over the last 15 years is just an extraordinary coincidence?

 

I have never been asked, no one I know has ever been asked, no one I know knows of anyone that has ever been asked but we could all name many people we know who have been victims of crime.

 

Surveys are fine for washing powder or types of cat food or whatever but for crime figures they can't be an accurate statistic, merely a snapshot to be taken any way people choose

 

Fear of crime is exceptionally high among elderly, among women, among parents with kids who won't let their kids go outside, fear of knife and gun crime in inner cities is like it has never been before, a snapshot of 40,000 people and politicians using that 40,000 to say everything is hunky dory is nothing short of patronising tbh

You haven't explained how the BCS has managed to show a fall in crime every year for 15 years without it being at least close to the truth. But then there's a clue in that statement. Tories do tend to shy away from facts when they don't support their argument.

 

Fear of crime is out of all proportion to reality thanks largely to hysterical tabloid headlines. However, even the fear of crime is finally starting to fall.

You haven't explained how the BCS has managed to show a fall in crime every year for 15 years without it being at least close to the truth. But then there's a clue in that statement. Tories do tend to shy away from facts when they don't support their argument.

 

Fear of crime is out of all proportion to reality thanks largely to hysterical tabloid headlines. However, even the fear of crime is finally starting to fall.

 

Governments can manipulate anything to suit their agenda

 

If a government want to show a drop in crime then they can ask less people in Brixton and Stockwell and more people in Welwyn Garden City and Henley, see my point ?

 

Governments can simply manipulate surveys by adjusting the type and demographics of people they ask

Governments can manipulate anything to suit their agenda

 

If a government want to show a drop in crime then they can ask less people in Brixton and Stockwell and more people in Welwyn Garden City and Henley, see my point ?

 

Governments can simply manipulate surveys by adjusting the type and demographics of people they ask

Can't you read? If you read what I said earlier you would have noticed that the methodology for the BCS has barely changed since it was introduced. That's another reason why it is fairly reliable. I know you think that Gordon Brown eats babies for breakfast as long as Nick Clegg doesn't get there first but please try and look at the facts before you make yet another ridiculous assertion.

 

And how do you think the government - who commission the survey, they don't carry it out - somehow manage to select people who haven't been victims of crime? After all, I don't wear a sign saying "I've been burgled" around mu neck.

 

Unless you come up with a coherent argument this is all I have to say on the matter. The fact is I'm right, you're deluded.

Can't you read? If you read what I said earlier you would have noticed that the methodology for the BCS has barely changed since it was introduced. That's another reason why it is fairly reliable. I know you think that Gordon Brown eats babies for breakfast as long as Nick Clegg doesn't get there first but please try and look at the facts before you make yet another ridiculous assertion.

 

And how do you think the government - who commission the survey, they don't carry it out - somehow manage to select people who haven't been victims of crime? After all, I don't wear a sign saying "I've been burgled" around mu neck.

 

Unless you come up with a coherent argument this is all I have to say on the matter. The fact is I'm right, you're deluded.

 

This is a government that told gross lies and doctored documents in order to justify an illegal war, this is a government that has imposed the least privacy on people in the civilised world, this is a government that has been caught lying countless times in its reign, this is a government that hung an eminent scientist out to dry to justify their lies and might well be implicated in his death, excuse me while I take every single thing they say with enough salt to fill the Pacific Ocean.

 

A government that are proven liars, proven control freaks and have no scruples about engaging in illegal activity would think nothing of twisting a few arms and greasing a few palms of the survey takers to come up with figures that will suit the government's agenda

This is a government that told gross lies and doctored documents in order to justify an illegal war, this is a government that has imposed the least privacy on people in the civilised world, this is a government that has been caught lying countless times in its reign, this is a government that hung an eminent scientist out to dry to justify their lies and might well be implicated in his death, excuse me while I take every single thing they say with enough salt to fill the Pacific Ocean.

 

A government that are proven liars, proven control freaks and have no scruples about engaging in illegal activity would think nothing of twisting a few arms and greasing a few palms of the survey takers to come up with figures that will suit the government's agenda

If you seriously believe that none of those 500,000 people (40,000 people per year for 13 years) would have gone running to the Sun or the Mail to sell their story the you're even more deluded than I thought.

If you seriously believe that none of those 500,000 people (40,000 people per year for 13 years) would have gone running to the Sun or the Mail to sell their story the you're even more deluded than I thought.

 

You misunderstood what I said, I said the survey ORGANISERS, the 40,000 will be none the wiser of some little old lady stopping them outside Tescos asking them if they have ever been a victim of crime but I have no doubt at all that the survey organisers are in cahoots with the government, a few mislaid papers or more people asked in prosperous leafy suburbs than the previous year etc etc is more than capable of being done

 

The fact that the survey has shown a drop in crimes in every single year of the most sleazy, dishonest and corrupt government in living memory in this country is VERY suspicious

Can't you read? If you read what I said earlier you would have noticed that the methodology for the BCS has barely changed since it was introduced. That's another reason why it is fairly reliable. I know you think that Gordon Brown eats babies for breakfast as long as Nick Clegg doesn't get there first but please try and look at the facts before you make yet another ridiculous assertion.

 

And how do you think the government - who commission the survey, they don't carry it out - somehow manage to select people who haven't been victims of crime? After all, I don't wear a sign saying "I've been burgled" around mu neck.

 

Unless you come up with a coherent argument this is all I have to say on the matter. The fact is I'm right, you're deluded.

 

A fair point. Unfortunately as the Titanic found out to her cost, there's an iceberg ahead which sinks this report's credibility to shreds.

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

New row over crime statistics

 

Ministers have become embroiled in a damaging new row over crime statistics after government documents revealed official figures on crime against young people might have been much too low for years.

 

By Patrick Hennessy, Political editor Daily Telegraph.co.uk

Published: 9:00PM BST 03 Apr 2010

 

Minutes of a secret Home Office meeting obtained by The Sunday Telegraph showed that an internal review was set up to examine the operation of the British Crime Survey (BCS) amid fears that it was underestimating key findings.

 

The review was given its terms of reference in September 2008 – but no results have yet been made public.

 

Officials and experts were asked to "consider whether the BCS possibly under-reports the crimes committed against males and females aged 16-24 living in areas with high levels of crime and social deprivation and thus may have generated underestimates in levels and trends in crime, and to consider the implications of this."

 

The BCS is ministers' preferred measure, relying on an annual survey of more than 40,000 people in which they are questioned about their perceptions of crime.

 

If it is found to have been underestimating the level of crime against the 16-24 age group, this would deal a devastating blow to its overall credibility and the whole pattern of criminal trends used by the government when it sets policy and allocates resources to the police.

 

The latest BCS report, for 2008-09, shows that those aged 16-24 are by far the most likely age group to be the victims of violent offences.

 

The statistics show that 8.2 per cent of them have been the victims of violence – nearly double the proportion of the next-largest group, 25-34 year-olds (4.3 per cent)

 

However, the figures also indicate that only 1,515 people aged between 16 and 24 were interviewed, compared with 5,827 25-34 year-olds and 9,323 35-44 year-olds.

 

They also show that 55 per cent cent of violent crimes were committed by 16-24 year olds, according to victims’ perceptions.

 

The figures revealed that the same age group was by far the most likely to have been burglary victims, with a rate of 7.2 per cent compared to the next highest group, again those aged between 35 and 44 (4.0 per cent).

 

However, again, the interview sample for the 18-24 year-olds was the same 1,515.

 

But what is most damning is the knowledge that in the equivalent September 2007 report, 7,337 people aged between 16 and 24 were interviewed.

 

Chris Grayling, the shadow home secretary, said: "It looks as if Gordon Brown and his Government have been caught being dishonest with the British public yet again.

"In his crime speech in March the Prime Minister said bluntly that crime was down and that things were getting better.

 

"These revelations show they quite clearly don't believe their own figures and that behind the scenes they think that things may be much worse than they are publicly admitting.

 

"But not surprisingly the detail won't be known until after the election. Once again the Prime Minister is taking people for fools."

 

The BCS shows violent crime falling but the Tories have argued that it is not the best measure of crime trends for a number of reasons, particularly because it excludes a number of key offences, including murder and manslaughter.

 

Crimes against those under 16 have only recently been included in the survey with the first results due to be released this year.

 

The latest revelations follow an accusation that the government was delaying potentially embarrassing separate youth crime figures until after the general election, expected on 6 May.

 

The Youth Justice Board (YJB) said statistics showing the number of crimes committed by under-18s would not be published until the autumn, nearly six months later than the normal publication date.

 

The data was said to be delayed because of the official "purdah" period, which prevents civil servants from releasing overtly party political information, even though this only officially begins once the election has been called.

 

The subject is high on the political agenda, with the Tories having accused the ministers of "losing control" of youth crime, while the Liberal Democrats have spoken of the "criminalisation of a generation of young people."

 

After the election, the YJB will reveal the number of crimes and types of offences committed by those under 18 in 2008-09 amid fears these will have risen significantly from the 278,000 committed in 2007-08.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

In short the Government have done the classic trick of manipulating the sample of 40,000 people used between 2007 and 2008 so that a lower proportion of the highest category of people who are most likely to be affected by crime are interviewed so reducing the overall average. Brilliant, eh.

 

So in short these figures are about as accurate as Gordon Brown's "misinformation" about expenditure on the armed services rising in real terms at the Iraq War Commission.

You misunderstood what I said, I said the survey ORGANISERS, the 40,000 will be none the wiser of some little old lady stopping them outside Tescos asking them if they have ever been a victim of crime but I have no doubt at all that the survey organisers are in cahoots with the government, a few mislaid papers or more people asked in prosperous leafy suburbs than the previous year etc etc is more than capable of being done

 

The fact that the survey has shown a drop in crimes in every single year of the most sleazy, dishonest and corrupt government in living memory in this country is VERY suspicious

 

Have you been a victim of crime?

 

I haven't, under Tory or Labour UK governments and recently under Labour, Labour /Lib Dem coalition, SNP minority governments at Holyrood. My local council and the bigger Strathclyde Regional council were Labour run.

Edited April 7, 201015 yr by Baytree

A fair point. Unfortunately as the Titanic found out to her cost, there's an iceberg ahead which sinks this report's credibility to shreds.

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

New row over crime statistics

 

Ministers have become embroiled in a damaging new row over crime statistics after government documents revealed official figures on crime against young people might have been much too low for years.

 

By Patrick Hennessy, Political editor Daily Telegraph.co.uk

Published: 9:00PM BST 03 Apr 2010

 

Minutes of a secret Home Office meeting obtained by The Sunday Telegraph showed that an internal review was set up to examine the operation of the British Crime Survey (BCS) amid fears that it was underestimating key findings.

 

The review was given its terms of reference in September 2008 – but no results have yet been made public.

 

Officials and experts were asked to "consider whether the BCS possibly under-reports the crimes committed against males and females aged 16-24 living in areas with high levels of crime and social deprivation and thus may have generated underestimates in levels and trends in crime, and to consider the implications of this."

 

The BCS is ministers' preferred measure, relying on an annual survey of more than 40,000 people in which they are questioned about their perceptions of crime.

 

If it is found to have been underestimating the level of crime against the 16-24 age group, this would deal a devastating blow to its overall credibility and the whole pattern of criminal trends used by the government when it sets policy and allocates resources to the police.

 

The latest BCS report, for 2008-09, shows that those aged 16-24 are by far the most likely age group to be the victims of violent offences.

 

The statistics show that 8.2 per cent of them have been the victims of violence – nearly double the proportion of the next-largest group, 25-34 year-olds (4.3 per cent)

 

However, the figures also indicate that only 1,515 people aged between 16 and 24 were interviewed, compared with 5,827 25-34 year-olds and 9,323 35-44 year-olds.

 

They also show that 55 per cent cent of violent crimes were committed by 16-24 year olds, according to victims’ perceptions.

 

The figures revealed that the same age group was by far the most likely to have been burglary victims, with a rate of 7.2 per cent compared to the next highest group, again those aged between 35 and 44 (4.0 per cent).

 

However, again, the interview sample for the 18-24 year-olds was the same 1,515.

 

But what is most damning is the knowledge that in the equivalent September 2007 report, 7,337 people aged between 16 and 24 were interviewed.

 

Chris Grayling, the shadow home secretary, said: "It looks as if Gordon Brown and his Government have been caught being dishonest with the British public yet again.

"In his crime speech in March the Prime Minister said bluntly that crime was down and that things were getting better.

 

"These revelations show they quite clearly don't believe their own figures and that behind the scenes they think that things may be much worse than they are publicly admitting.

 

"But not surprisingly the detail won't be known until after the election. Once again the Prime Minister is taking people for fools."

 

The BCS shows violent crime falling but the Tories have argued that it is not the best measure of crime trends for a number of reasons, particularly because it excludes a number of key offences, including murder and manslaughter.

 

Crimes against those under 16 have only recently been included in the survey with the first results due to be released this year.

 

The latest revelations follow an accusation that the government was delaying potentially embarrassing separate youth crime figures until after the general election, expected on 6 May.

 

The Youth Justice Board (YJB) said statistics showing the number of crimes committed by under-18s would not be published until the autumn, nearly six months later than the normal publication date.

 

The data was said to be delayed because of the official "purdah" period, which prevents civil servants from releasing overtly party political information, even though this only officially begins once the election has been called.

 

The subject is high on the political agenda, with the Tories having accused the ministers of "losing control" of youth crime, while the Liberal Democrats have spoken of the "criminalisation of a generation of young people."

 

After the election, the YJB will reveal the number of crimes and types of offences committed by those under 18 in 2008-09 amid fears these will have risen significantly from the 278,000 committed in 2007-08.

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

In short the Government have done the classic trick of manipulating the sample of 40,000 people used between 2007 and 2008 so that a lower proportion of the highest category of people who are most likely to be affected by crime are interviewed so reducing the overall average. Brilliant, eh.

 

So in short these figures are about as accurate as Gordon Brown's "misinformation" about expenditure on the armed services rising in real terms at the Iraq War Commission.

 

Backs up what I have been saying

 

Can't wait to see Suedehead's response :yahoo: :cheer:

 

In short the Government have done the classic trick of manipulating the sample of 40,000 people used between 2007 and 2008 so that a lower proportion of the highest category of people who are most likely to be affected by crime are interviewed so reducing the overall average. Brilliant, eh.

 

So in short these figures are about as accurate as Gordon Brown's "misinformation" about expenditure on the armed services rising in real terms at the Iraq War Commission.

No, the Government haven't manipulated it at all. The independent BCS were the ones who created the sample's composure were they not?

No, the Government haven't manipulated it at all. The independent BCS were the ones who created the sample's composure were they not?

 

Come on Tyron you are an intelligent guy can you honestly say that the government has no way influenced the BCS organisers ? the most sleazy, deceitful and corrupt government in decades if not centuries in the UK is more than capable of leaning on the BCS organisers to make the government look good.

 

 

Have you been a victim of crime?

 

I haven't, under Tory or Labour UK governments and recently under Labour, Labour /Lib Dem coalition, SNP minority governments at Holyrood. My local council and the bigger Strathclyde Regional council were Labour run.

In all fairness up north the SNP have gotten even softer on crime, and my council [Fife] has gotten even more bloody useless since the scum got in. Fife was LibLab it's now SNPLiberal

No, the Government haven't manipulated it at all. The independent BCS were the ones who created the sample's composure were they not?

 

I think you have a lot to learn in life.

 

Who funded the independent BCS poll? Answer: The British taxpayer UK Government.

 

Who is in power at the moment? Answer: The current Labour Administration.

 

Is it in their interests that the result of this poll show crime is getting better or worse? Answer: Do you really need that answered for you.

 

Wake up and smell the coffee.

 

These results are just as manipulated and trustworthy as all the end of term qualification school/college leavers exam results. If an Independent Exam board made their exams too high so not achieving good results; then schools/colleges would switch to another examination board that provides better results for students. It is as simple as that.

 

 

"There's bull$h!t and bull$h!t. They just go by different names" (Paul Weller 1982).

/

These results are just as manipulated and trustworthy as all the end of term qualification school/college leavers exam results. If an Independent Exam board made their exams too high so not achieving good results; then schools/colleges would switch to another examination board that provides better results for students. It is as simple as that.

There is a flaw in that argument. The SQA [scottish Qualifications Authority] is the sole examining body in Scotland and the exams in Scotland are getting easier as a whole year on year.

This report casts doubt on the BCS for the last two years. How does that explain the trend over a period of 15 years?

 

If it's really the case that over 7000 people aged 16-24 were questioned in one survey that's far too many.

 

The article makes a lot of the variation in experience of crime by age group and the proportion of each age group who were questioned. That confuses two issues. The survey sample should reflect the population as a whole with no regard for any variation in the experience of crime. To suggest otherwise is to say that Mori and the rest should interview more voters over 65 because they are more likely to vote Tory.