I just don't see it

 

Clegg is Cameron's "mini me" now, he has been totally seduced by the scent of power, they would have to depose Clegg and reinstate Charles Kennedy to stand any chance of Clegg giving up this little power trip and many of the Lib Dem ministers equally have been seduced by ministerial positions, more likely the Lib Dems will die altogether in this next 5 years with the scraps being picked up by Labour and the Tories

 

Again, you forget how mortal Clegg is within his own party. The Lib Dems are the most democratic party of them all, and it's relatively easy to get rid of their leader - and, in deposing both Kennedy and Campbell, they've shown they're happy to do it.

Again, you forget how mortal Clegg is within his own party. The Lib Dems are the most democratic party of them all, and it's relatively easy to get rid of their leader - and, in deposing both Kennedy and Campbell, they've shown they're happy to do it.

 

Lib Dems should ditch Clegg and get either Simon Hughes in or reinstate Charles Kennedy if they're ever gonna get any credibilty back amongst their voters... For once I actually agree with Craig - Clegg is Cameron's "mini-me".... Basically what you have in Cameron and Clegg is the "Ant and Dec" of politics.....

 

That's what the Labour party claim but it doesn't make sense. Total Lib Dem membership at the start of the year was only around 60,000. I can't believe that a fifth of them have left to join Labour. Of course, it's perfectly possible that 12,000 former supporters have joined Labour, particularly as they have used the leadership contest to try and attract new members.

 

It's 12,000 people joining the Labour party full stop, of which 4,000 are former Lib Dem members.

 

Projected seats under current boundaries according to the latest poll:

 

Con 299

Lab 315

Lib 11

 

That's right, ELEVEN. How likely is it that Clegg is one of those? Fairly far-fetched, I'd think.

Lib Dems should ditch Clegg and get either Simon Hughes in or reinstate Charles Kennedy if they're ever gonna get any credibilty back amongst their voters... For once I actually agree with Craig - Clegg is Cameron's "mini-me".... Basically what you have in Cameron and Clegg is the "Ant and Dec" of politics.....

 

 

Apparently Kennedy has been holding talks with Labour about defecting...

Apparently Kennedy has been holding talks with Labour about defecting...

Not according to Kennedy or indeed anyone in the Labour Party. The story started on a Labour supporting blog but with no hint at where it came from. It merely mentioned "Westminster sources". Normally that sort of attribution would at least have something like "including one close to XXX's leadership campaign" but this didn't.

Not according to Kennedy or indeed anyone in the Labour Party. The story started on a Labour supporting blog but with no hint at where it came from. It merely mentioned "Westminster sources". Normally that sort of attribution would at least have something like "including one close to XXX's leadership campaign" but this didn't.

 

Fair enough, I just saw it reported in the Independent. Just as well for the Lib Dems, that would be completely disastrous.

That's right, ELEVEN. How likely is it that Clegg is one of those? Fairly far-fetched, I'd think.

Unfortunately, on a uniform swing, he would just about hold onto his seat even with such low national polling numbers. According to Electoral Calculus, the 11 Lib Dem MPs who would survive those results (on a strictly uniform swing) are:

 

Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye and Lochabar)

Alistair Carmichael (Orkney and Shetland)

Sir Menzies Campbell (Fife North East)

Greg Mulholland (Leeds North West)

Mark Williams (Ceredigon)

Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam)

Dan Foster (Bath)

Vincent Cable (Twickenham)

Norman Lamb (Norfolk North)

David Laws (Yeovil)

Tim Farron (Westmorland and Lonsdale)

 

Those out would include Lib Dem deputy leader Simon Hughes and government ministers Danny Alexander, Chris Huhne, Michael Moore, Sarah Teather and Lynne Featherstone.

Unfortunately, on a uniform swing, he would just about hold onto his seat even with such low national polling numbers. According to Electoral Calculus, the 11 Lib Dem MPs who would survive those results (on a strictly uniform swing) are:

 

Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye and Lochabar)

Alistair Carmichael (Orkney and Shetland)

Sir Menzies Campbell (Fife North East)

Greg Mulholland (Leeds North West)

Mark Williams (Ceredigon)

Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam)

Dan Foster (Bath)

Vincent Cable (Twickenham)

Norman Lamb (Norfolk North)

David Laws (Yeovil)

Tim Farron (Westmorland and Lonsdale)

 

Those out would include Lib Dem deputy leader Simon Hughes and government ministers Danny Alexander, Chris Huhne, Michael Moore, Sarah Teather and Lynne Featherstone.

And some polls a couple years ago showed the Lib Dems winning no seats at all. They actually won 57.

 

Unfortunately, on a uniform swing, he would just about hold onto his seat even with such low national polling numbers. According to Electoral Calculus, the 11 Lib Dem MPs who would survive those results (on a strictly uniform swing) are:

 

Charles Kennedy (Ross Skye and Lochabar)

Alistair Carmichael (Orkney and Shetland)

Sir Menzies Campbell (Fife North East)

Greg Mulholland (Leeds North West)

Mark Williams (Ceredigon)

Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam)

Dan Foster (Bath)

Vincent Cable (Twickenham)

Norman Lamb (Norfolk North)

David Laws (Yeovil)

Tim Farron (Westmorland and Lonsdale)

 

Those out would include Lib Dem deputy leader Simon Hughes and government ministers Danny Alexander, Chris Huhne, Michael Moore, Sarah Teather and Lynne Featherstone.

How ironic that it tends to be Orange Bookers that keep their seats!

Sunday Times poll showed the Lib Dems at 13%, which is in line with the 12-13% most polls have showed them at in the last week or two - but most interesting is this poll shows only 47% of that 13% state they approve of the Coalition's work so far. If we're to assume there's a decent chance of that 53% who don't approve deserting them pretty soon (presumably in favour of Labour for most), they could be potentially in single digits by the end of the year...

Local byelections still show a different story. Last week the Lib Dems held on to their share of the vote in a byelection in Sheffield (not in Nick Clegg's constituency), staying in second place behind Labour. They also gained a seat from the Tories although the swing was so large (over 20%) that there was obviously some local factor at work there.

 

I don't have details of any other byelections last week just in case people think I'm being selective.

Local byelections still show a different story. Last week the Lib Dems held on to their share of the vote in a byelection in Sheffield (not in Nick Clegg's constituency), staying in second place behind Labour. They also gained a seat from the Tories although the swing was so large (over 20%) that there was obviously some local factor at work there.

 

I don't have details of any other byelections last week just in case people think I'm being selective.

 

In fairness though, you're only ever going to get a very limited amount of voters out to council by-elections... I mean, even though I follow politics a lot, I can't honestly say I'd be aware of it if there were ever any by-elections in my council.

In fairness though, you're only ever going to get a very limited amount of voters out to council by-elections... I mean, even though I follow politics a lot, I can't honestly say I'd be aware of it if there were ever any by-elections in my council.

Very true but it still shows that when Lib Dems actually go out and campaign against the Tories, the vote is still holding up.

A ComRes poll shows 40% of people who voted Lib Dem in May have now abandoned the party, with 22% of May LD voters going to Labour and 7% going to the Tories. With that said, in the same survey, the Lib Dems have a much higher rating than in the YouGov polls, at 18% (Tories and Labour are both a bit lower than in other polls, at 38% and 34% respectively). It shows the Lib Dem vote among the working-classes is in freefall, but their vote among more affluent voters is holding up reasonably well - which indicates that Labour should take most of their seats in Scotland and northern England fairly comfortably, but that they would be pretty effective at holding off the Tories in their southern seats.

A ComRes poll shows 40% of people who voted Lib Dem in May have now abandoned the party, with 22% of May LD voters going to Labour and 7% going to the Tories. With that said, in the same survey, the Lib Dems have a much higher rating than in the YouGov polls, at 18% (Tories and Labour are both a bit lower than in other polls, at 38% and 34% respectively). It shows the Lib Dem vote among the working-classes is in freefall, but their vote among more affluent voters is holding up reasonably well - which indicates that Labour should take most of their seats in Scotland and northern England fairly comfortably, but that they would be pretty effective at holding off the Tories in their southern seats.

A lot of Lib Dems Scottish seats aren't in poor areas. The Working class up here vote SNP or Labour and the Middle classes mainly vote LibDem.

 

Out of Fife's 4 seats, the one LibDem seat is the more affluent of the 3. Granted house prices in Dunfermline are high thanks to it being a commuter town, but Inverkeithing and surrounding towns drag it right down.

 

Similarly, the Northern seats they have are all reasonably affluent and the two of the three seats in the borders that they hold are also rather posh. Hell, the Scottish Borders isn't a posh area.

 

 

I can't see much changing in Scotland, unless it's the SNP making inroads into Labour territory and making a move on the LibDem seats where they tend to be 3rd behind the Torries.

Well ok, BUT from what I understand, the Tories are still hated with a passion in Scotland even among affluent voters, so I would still expect some reaction against the Lib Dems there even if it's not as strong as in the working-class northern England. I guess it's possible the SNP would benefit more than Labour though.

They are hated by most people up here but, the upper classes love them still. All the land owners vote Tory and there are a lot of landowners in Scotland :lol:. Voting LibDem in my area is seen as essential to keep the Torys out as there is a lot of Landowners and the upper classes from St Andrews.

 

Despite being hated the Tories are the 3rd party at Hollyrood one seat ahead of the LibDems.

 

I expect the reaction to be not voting rather than voting for Labour/SNP. There is a big feeling of disloyalty by Labour which lead to the SNP winning in Scotland, and that won't disappear.

 

 

It's gonna be hard to call the effect on the Libs up here as you can't use the Hollyrood elections as a real benchmark. A lot of SNP's potential voters will have voted Labour at Westminster in a vain effort to keep out Cameron. Even though they are useless, i can see Scotland re-electing a nationalist government.

In fairness, it seems the Lib Dems aren't *quite* as low as the YouGov polls have indicated - any non-YouGov polls since the election (which have been rare) have shown the Lib Dems a couple of points higher than YG, and the Tories a couple of points lower. For instance, tonight's Populus poll puts the Libs on 14% (higher than the 12% that YG has consistently had them at for the past couple of weeks), with Tories on 39% and Labour on 37%. I'd be still quite worried at that if I was a Lib Dem MP though...

 

Meanwhile, YouGov has the Coalition's net approval rating at a new low of minus 8 - bearing in mind it was at like +30 in early summer.